"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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Once the Ukrainians get the Panzerhaubitze 2000 into service I hope they will be properly accompanied by anti-air weapons. They'd be a prime target for satellite/drone spies and air attacks (assuming the'd stay out of enemy art range)
 
Assumptions like that have come back to haunt others over time as well.

"The English channel is but a ditch. We have only to cross it." - Napoleon Bonaparte. (something like that).

One of the weaknesses of any autocracy is the tendency of the autocrat to believe and act on his own opinions, or those of the yes-men he has appointed. Diversity of views is certainly messier, but it may prevent a leader from running down the garden-path into oblivion.

In Darwinian evolution, a species which has a diverse gene-pool and has faced and survived many challenges is usually stronger for it. I think that the same principle probably holds true in human affairs.
 
Serhiy Haidai, governor of the eastern Luhansk region, acknowledged that a mass evacuation of civilians from Sievierodonetsk now is "simply not possible"
Then they must be armed. Ukraine needs to model its military on Israel. Excluding children (and the Orthodox), everyone who can shoot has been or is a soldier, with citizens volunteering in the active reserves up to age 60. This is because the Israelis know that whomever invades isn't coming for land, but to murder every Israeli man, women and child, to finish the Holocaust (Holodomor for Ukrainians).

If Zelenskyy can arm, train and them mobilize another two million Ukrainian men and women, the Russians will be in trouble. That Russian retired coronel said as much on state TV, that once the Lend Lease arrives in force, the UAF will number two million and be unstoppable.


"Israel's military reserve system provides an indispensable base for sustaining the conscript and professional superstructure of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Since Israelis have historically found themselves surrounded by potentially hostile countries with much larger populations, they have designed a framework for quickly mobilizing large numbers of battle-ready forces in an emergency. As a result, Israeli planners have traditionally treated reservists as core combat troops—essential for any major operation—rather than as supplementary forces."
 
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I must admit, you would think that this present situation would seem a good time for Georgia and Chechnya to resume their opposition to russian interference in their own respective countries. If those two countries started military action against "russian occupiers', that would be a very major problem for putin. He would effectively have a war on two fronts, and I reckon that his military would be unable to cope. Come on Georgia, come on Chechnya, rise up against the Imperialist putin, and dig a grave for him.
 
You Sir, are quite correct. If only that could happen, Ukraine would stop and push back the russian hoards. It is shameful how Western countries promise so much, but fail to deliver. An example is Germany, promising to send {in May this year} Gepard anti aircraft weapon systems; IN JULY!!!!!!!!! Ukraine needs these systems now. All these Western promised weapons are not arriving in time for Ukraine to protect itself. It is time to pull the finger out, and fast track military aid to Ukraine. How many more innocent Ukrainian civilians and military personnel have to die before we, the West, understand that this is real, this is deadly and this has to be a firm and unflinching stand against russian expansionism. If it to be peace in our time, it needs to start here, with giving Ukraine everything it requires to defeat russia.
 
I must admit, you would think that this present situation would seem a good time for Georgia and Chechnya to resume their opposition to russian interference....
And for the Belarusians to rise up, including those serving in the forces.



 
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Lukashenko is a POS, but he is not stupid, and he sees what is happening to Russia. The sabotage of the rail lines in Belarus during the first few weeks of the war took him by surprise. Belarus does not have the stability or resources that Russia has, and cannot afford to fight a war of attrition, even on a proportionately smaller scale. It is kind of like the poor having to pay the same % tax as the rich - 10% out of a million means the millionaire can not buy a yacht. 10% out of a thousand means the thousandaire has a choice between eating, keeping a roof over his head, or keeping clothes on his back. In other words, Belarus has very little available for discretionary spending.
 
Something else involved in the supply of the heavier equipment to the Ukraine.

The majority of the US M113 platforms (again as an example) are not going to be fed piecemeal into the war. The current intent is to equip at least 2 units that will effectively become Mechanized Infantry Brigades. A large percentage of the other heavy weapons (such as the M109, FISTV, and HIMARS/MLRS platforms) being supplied by the US will also go to these units, making up the Brigade Support units. Pretty much all the equipment needed to build up these units is being arranged in one form or another. My understanding is that the other NATO countries are doing something similar with a significant percentage of their contributions. (My understanding is that a significant number of the Polish T-72 contribution will constitute the Tank Battalions attached to these Brigades.

Training involved in Heavy Brigade unit warfare is also taking place, with experienced UAF troops (drawn from units that have suffered significant losses) constituting the cores of the units, and additional green or less experienced Ukrainian troops being trained in as quickly as possible. The effect of such units will, if done properly, be a magnitude more than if most of the equipment were simply fed into the grinder in small numbers.

These types of units will be needed if the UAF is going go on the offensive, and kick the RF's ass hard enough to force it to withdraw from the Ukraine.
 
re the Gepards

I may be wrong about this, but I believe the Gepards are being offered/supplied by a private company, not the German government. I know that the Gepards were purchased by a private company some years ago.

Edit: Krauss-Maffei Wegmann manufactured them originally, and bought the Gepards back with the intent of possible sales to other countries. They are also doing the training for the Ukrainians, rather than the German Army.
 
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Though we disagree on plenty of aspects of this war, you've written this idea out upthread as well and I have to say that I agree with you. When you live in a tough neighborhood, you gotta be tough to survive.
 

Smart money, here. It fits in with what I wrote upthread about this battle being the Ukrainians fighting for time, as well. Thanks for putting it better than I had thought to.
 

The Hague, June 14 (Reuters) - NATO must build out "even higher readiness" and strengthen its weapons capabilities along its eastern border in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the military alliance's chief said on Tuesday.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was speaking after informal talks in the Netherlands with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the leaders of Denmark, Poland, Latvia, Romania, Portugal and Belgium ahead of a wider NATO summit in Madrid at the end of the month.


"In Madrid, we will agree a major strengthening of our posture," he said. "Tonight we discussed the need for more robust and combat-ready forward presence and an even higher readiness and more pre-positioned equipment and supplies."

Responding to a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier Tuesday for more long-range weapons, Stoltenberg said he agreed that Kyiv should be supplied with more heavy weaponry, but provided no details.

Responding to a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier Tuesday for more long-range weapons, Stoltenberg said he agreed that Kyiv should be supplied with more heavy weaponry, but provided no details. read more


"Ukraine should have more heavy weapons and NATO allies and partners have provided heavy weapons ... and they are also stepping up," Stoltenberg said.

"In terms of weaponry, we stand united here that it is crucial for Russia to lose the war," Dutch leader Rutte told reporters in The Hague. "And as we cannot have a direct confrontation between NATO troops and Russia, what we need to do is make sure that Ukraine can fight that war, that it has access to all the necessary weaponry."



That "access" needs to be timely. How to balance that against also strengthening NATO's eastern front needs to be laid out in detail, because it's hard to feed two families from one kitchen.
 
Civilians who can not be evacuated must be helped not armed.
As for the rest, there are Territorial Defence and reserve. Mobilisation will continue but 2 mln is a tall order.
 
"Germany wants to deliver three Mars II rocket launchers to Ukraine instead of the four previously discussed . According to information from Business Insider, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) wants to announce the plan at the meeting of EU defense ministers on Wednesday. According to reports, the German rocket launchers from Bundeswehr stocks should be handed over to Ukraine in August/September." (Google Translate)
 
Civilians who can not be evacuated must be helped not armed.
Depends on their ability. I'm 51 years old, in good health. I haven't fired a gun since the .22 sleeved SMLE we used in Army Cadets in the 1980s. But assuming weapons can be had, the only help I'd need were Russians invading my town is a quick lesson on the workings of the Kalashnikov along with ammunition, and maybe a sandwich.
 

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