"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

[Admiral Beez]

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Oh it will drag on well into 2023 and beyond, likely morphing into some sort of Ukrainian intifada resistance movement, but the Donbas and Sea of Azov coast from Crimea eastward will be forever lost by Oct, when the heavy artillery, MRLS, tanks, etc. Ukraine needed in April finally begin arriving in force.

At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had, and begin reducing aid to Ukraine to force the matter.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Oh it will drag on well into 2023 and beyond, likely morphing into some sort of Ukrainian intifada resistance movement, but the Donbas and Sea of Azov coast from Crimea eastward will be forever lost by Oct, when the heavy artillery, MRLS, tanks, etc. Ukraine needed in April finally begin arriving in force.

At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had, and begin reducing aid to Ukraine to force the matter.

You got the winning Powerball numbers too?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

And its not about being "Spineless". It's about reality. This is not a fantasy world Hollywood movie where countries snap their fingers and weapons magically appear in Ukraine.

Why has Canada not sent their entire military stocks to Ukraine? By god they are not helping enough!!! Canada is not all in in the war against Russia!

 

[wimble toot]

So maybe Ukraine should repossess all of Russia.

I'm quite happy to see Russia's borders restored to their 1618 levels

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Logistics is not magic, and it takes time (don't forget about training).

But, Iraq invaded Kuwait by August 2 and by February 28 the war was over. They handled 170,000 vehicles (including 12,000 armored) and 12,575 aircraft and almost a million men. Plus fuel ammo and food.

If only 1/5 of the logistic effort of the first gulf war was devoted to Ukrainia ....

 

[Admiral Beez]

You got the winning Powerball numbers too?

No magic foresight needed. Russia is gaining territory in Eastern Ukraine. The war will go into 2023 and beyond. France and others are already grumbling that Ukraine seek peace.

But I'm trusting and hopeful that I'm full of crap, and that UAF will hold back the Russians until their promised NATO heavy weaponry, training and sufficient ammunition arrive in Aug leading to a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in September that by Feb 24, 2023 has driven the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine, liberated Mariupol, retaken Crimea and defeated the Russian-backed separatist in the Donbas.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Logistics is not magic, and it takes time (don't forget about training).

But, Iraq invaded Kuwait by August 2 and by February 28 the war was over. They handled 170,000 vehicles (including 12,000 armored) and 12,575 aircraft and almost a million men. Plus fuel ammo and food.

If only 1/5 of the logistic effort of the first gulf war was devoted to Ukrainia ....

One key and very big difference…

The coalition in the first Gulf War was shipping, transporting, and using their own equipment, not sending it to Kuwait for them to fight Iraq with. Had it been a similar situation it would not have gone as smoothly.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Another thing everyone is missing is every country has "export laws" that pertain to military equipment. These laws cannot simply be skipped over.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

No magic foresight needed. Russia is gaining territory in Eastern Ukraine. The war will go into 2023 and beyond. France and others are already grumbling that Ukraine seek peace.

But I'm trusting and hopeful that I'm full of crap, and that UAF will hold back the Russians until their promised NATO heavy weaponry, training and sufficient ammunition arrive in Aug leading to a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in September that by Feb 24, 2023 has driven the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine, liberated Mariupol, retaken Crimea and defeated the Russian-backed separatist in the Donbas.

Russia has been making gains from day one. In doing so they are expending their resources and manpower. Then Ukraine which has been building up its resources and manpower counter-attacks. This is how the battle has been fought from day one. Like I said it, it is a textbook war of attrition and Ukraine just has to outlast Russia.

 

[GrauGeist]

At least we don't have to worry about U-boats hampering the supply chain.

Might also be a good time to point out that yes, at the start of the invasion, everyone thought Ukraine was screwed because of Russia's might. And the numbers were certainly in their favor.

But then again, Operation Barbarossa was supposed to be a quick, overwhelming victory, too...

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

At least we don't have to worry about U-boats hampering the supply chain.

Might also be a good time to point out that yes, at the start of the invasion, everyone thought Ukraine was screwed because of Russia's might. And the numbers were certainly in their favor.

But then again, Operation Barbarossa was supposed to be a quick, overwhelming victory, too...

I was about to say the same thing. A war of attrition like this favors the defender. The attacker always makes huge gains at first. If the defender is not defeated outright and swiftly, the war bogs down and the tides turn.

Barbarossa is a great example.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had.

Back to this…

Maybe I am mistaken, but weren't you and Basket saying this back in the beginning as well? That Ukraine will lose in the end and should give up territory if needed to sue for peace? I might be wrong. Maybe it was just Basket.

Edit: I think it was The Basket. My apologies.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Oh it will drag on well into 2023 and beyond, likely morphing into some sort of Ukrainian intifada resistance movement, but the Donbas and Sea of Azov coast from Crimea eastward will be forever lost by Oct, when the heavy artillery, MRLS, tanks, etc. Ukraine needed in April finally begin arriving in force.

At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had, and begin reducing aid to Ukraine to force the matter.

I'd be cautious about words like "forever" and such. Absolutes rarely obtain in the real world.

 

[GrauGeist]

I was about to say the same thing. A war of attrition like this favors the defender. The attacker always makes huge gains at first. If the defender is not defeated outright and swiftly, the war bogs down and the tides turn.

Barbarossa is a great example.

Not only were German expectations high, but they invaded with history's largest invasion force.

On paper, it looked like an easy win...

 

[WARSPITER]

Not only were German expectations high, but they invaded with history's largest invasion force.

On paper, it looked like an easy win...

Good point. It's interesting how then as now the lack of logistic backup played such a big part. best description I've read as to the German attack
on the USSR was that the Wermacht was all teeth and no arse.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Not only were German expectations high, but they invaded with history's largest invasion force.

On paper, it looked like an easy win...

I think many have forgotten history. That's scary too..

 

[Crimea_River]

"We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down." - Adolf Hitler.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

"Peter the Great returned territories and fortified them. This destiny has also fallen to us," Putin said last week, referring to Russia's first emperor and his conquests. "It is our responsibility also to take back and strengthen."

Putin Nemesis Warns of Sinister Twist in Russian Attack Plan

(Photo by WANG Zhao / AFP)Russian President Vladimir Putin has been waging a devastating war in Ukraine for over three months now. But if Ukraine falls, he won’t stop there, Mikhail Kasyanov, who served as Putin’s first prime minister, said in an explosive new interview on Monday. “The Baltic...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian troops control about 80% of the fiercely contested eastern Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk and have destroyed all three bridges leading out of it but Ukrainian authorities are still trying to evacuate the wounded, a regional official said Tuesday.

Serhiy Haidai, governor of the eastern Luhansk region, acknowledged that a mass evacuation of civilians from Sievierodonetsk now is "simply not possible" due to the relentless shelling and fighting. Ukrainian forces have been pushed to the industrial outskirts of the city because of "the scorched earth method and heavy artillery the Russians are using," he said.

"There is still an opportunity for the evacuation of the wounded, communication with the Ukrainian military and local residents," he told The Associated Press by telephone, adding that Russian forces have not yet completely blocked off the strategic city.

[...]

"The situation is difficult," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a news conference Tuesday with Danish media. "Our task is to fight back."

Russians control 80% of key Ukraine city, cut escape routes

A governor says Russian forces control about 80% of the key Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk. The Luhansk regional leader says Russian forces have destroyed all three bridges out of the city but Ukrainians were still trying to evacuate the wounded despite relentless shelling.

apnews.com

 

[WARSPITER]

"We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down." - Adolf Hitler.

Assumptions like that have come back to haunt others over time as well.

"The English channel is but a ditch. We have only to cross it." - Napoleon Bonaparte. (something like that).