"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)

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My son told me about this earlier tonight. My initial reaction is that they must be running low on general PGMs to be shooting off SAMs at ground targets.

It'd be a shame if the Ukrainians showed up with a hundred or so F-16s.
Ukraine made several ground-to-ground tests with S-125, S-300 and (probably) Buk-1M in past. It was considered a stop-gap measure for the coastal defence before anti-ship missiles are deployed.
 
Putin reminds me more and more of Hitler, he too believed the shit he was speaking about, counting and playing with ghost armies and divisions
And what I find interesting, is that the Einsatzgruppen were "special operation" units.

I'm starting to think that it's not a coincidence that the term is being used in a similar fashion...
 
Now that the Russians have "paused" what does Ukraine need to begin its offensive into the Donbas? It's one thing to destroy ammo depots with the new HIMARS, but a sustained offensive?

1) Time ( T ThomasP got there first). Ukraine's forces, like the Russians, are also battered, and while new classes of recruits are coming in, they too will need time to be folded into units. Tired units will need to be reconstituted, resupplied, and and brought back to battlefield snuff. Damaged vehicles will need repairs.

2) New equipment. They've likely lost quite a bit of equipment, and what isn't damaged or destroyed is probably worn by the incessant combat. In the offensive, mobility is key unless you're aiming for a grinding battle, so trucks and APCs, along with escorting vehicles. I seem to remember reading that the Ukrainians have lost about 500 tanks and other armor. Also, more artillery. Lots more, preferably self-propelled due to it being able to follow an advance efficiently.

Ideally more and better aircraft. I hope that's going on under wraps, say, in Germany, but that seems like hopeless optimism on my part.

3) Training. They will not only need training on most of the new equipment, they will need time for retraining in order to make sure that forces that have been fighting defensively can turn around and actively prosecute an offensive. They will also have to, as noted above, train and incorporate new troops into the force.

4) I haven't heard much on this score, but I bet they're going to need quite a bit of fuel.

5) A damned good plan, to maximize the capabilities of their forces.
 
If Putin is playing from Hitler's playbook (which it appears he is), then he should know that when the German Army paused at Stalingrad and Leningrad, it allowed the Red Army to rally and go on the offensive.

In warfare, one does not pause - to do so allows the enemy to reinforce, regroup and reconfigure.

Obviously Putler never read the books by Rommel or Patton.
 
Scraping the bottom of the barrel, perhaps?

My son told me about this earlier tonight. My initial reaction is that they must be running low on general PGMs to be shooting off SAMs at ground targets.

It'd be a shame if the Ukrainians showed up with a hundred or so F-16s.

It could also have negative tones in that the Russians don't feel the air threat warrants the use of the system in its primary role.
Well, not sure about S-300, but this certainly looks like scraping the bottom of the barrel
 
Ukrainian needs and losses as reported on 15 June:
"I'm just going to tell you I think to fulfill those needs we have to engage the entire military industrial complex of the entire world. We have received a large number of weapon systems, but unfortunately with such a massively expendable resource, it only covers 10 to 15 percent of our needs."
"to cover the active combat conflict we need 40 brigades. Every brigade is 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 tanks, 54 artillery systems — just for one brigade, and we have 40 of them."
"Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems."

 
They didn't so much pause at Stalingrad and Leningrad but more were ground to a halt by their losses, logistical limitations and the ferocity of the enemy. Germany didn't decide to pause, the Russians forced them to. Now, had the Sixth Army paused outside of Stalingrad, waited for their logistics to catch up, and then disregarded the city by moving southward instead, they might have done better. Sometimes a pause to resupply and plan is beneficial.
 
Kaliningrad/ Koningsberg /Królewiec since USSR collapse is counted by Polish military as potential flashing point. From one side huge threat as region with biggest concentration of military hardware in the world right now from other hand - because of limited size - it is also trap for russian troops exposed for , sea, air and long range land attacks. In a case of conflict preventive strike eliminating this forces is more than probable element of NATO strategy.
 
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More on the impact of HIMARS and GMLRS. Ukrainians seem to be very happy with them.

 
The Germans were actually stopped because their logistical tail couldn't catch up. This is what has happened to the Russian forces and both cases are examples of the
result of poor planning and backup.
 
Thanks for the input and now seeing it on a map I agree.
 
Your right, its a race to repair the equipment and the men, retrain learning the lessons of the recent conflict and reconstitute the units. On this I am a little hopeful as the vast majority of the people in Ukraine want to defend their homeland, and the majority of the Russian forces (and their allies) don't want to be there
Maybe, just maybe this is one where the Ukraine have a slight advantage. The average quality of the new equipment Ukraine is getting is at least as good and often better than what they had originally. Whereas the average quality of the equipment the Russian forces are getting is worse than they originally had. Russia still has a very significant numerical advantage, but that advantage seems to be getting slowly eroded
Ideally more and better aircraft. I hope that's going on under wraps, say, in Germany, but that seems like hopeless optimism on my part.
Totally agree. It's something that I have been banging on about since the start of this conflict.
I kept these together as in Training and Planning, these are two areas where the Ukraine does seem to have a firm advantage. If they had fought the way they had been trained prior to 2014 they this conflict could easily have been over by now. We have seen ordinary civilian workers manning Tanks and other complex weapons with aplomb and self evident success.
Russian planning at both strategic and tactical levels has been shocking, and training would need a serious amount of rebuilding from the ground up.
Ukraine worked hard from 2014 on listening to US, Canadian and UK advisors and made a fundamental shift in their planning and training. Who are Russian going to turn to for advice and would they listen anyway?
 

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