"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

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Snautzer01 said:
I do not see the simularity in situation.
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It's more socio-political than material (infusing the population with a willingness to fight it out), but the Taiwanese are also looking at how the Ukrainians are leveraging asymmetric warfare tactics in combination with hi-tech tactical solutions to fight a behemoth to a problem-corner. And as noted above, the Taiwanese have a significant advantage in that there must first be a successful amphibious assault.

I like that they're not being complacent. There's been some significant changes in Taiwanese public opinion regarding a Chinese invasion, too, as a result of seeing Ukrainian bravery in action.
 
GTX said:
Or arguably a successful air/sea blockade which is where I suspect Chinese strategy is more targeted.
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That might be the case, but I think it could arouse the international community earlier. If the USA or a combination of allies including Australia decide to run the blockade, the onus is then on the Chinese to shoot first, and thereby remove the patina of innocence. And even if it turns into a standoff, that allows political wheels worldwide to turn, in order to engender more support for Taiwan.

I don't think the Chinese will choose that option because it will telegraph any impending move and put them on the back foot.

Also, under international law, a blockade is an act of war, and liable to military response. And while Taiwan is no superpower, it could certainly put a hurtin' on any blockading -- as well as any forthcoming invading -- forces. In other words, the Chinese will be risking forces before any shooting begins.

In the end, it boils down to whether Biden's assurances are solid or not. Keep in mind that America is not only reassuring Taiwan with those words, but also other Far East allies. An American failure to support Taiwan would spell the end of American security assurances for both Japan and South Korea as well, which would obviously widen the Far East arms race.

So I believe that America would broach any declared blockade. The failure to do so would be to accept defeat without a shot, not only in Taiwan, but in the Far East as a whole. Munich redux, really.
 
ThomasP said:
On the one hand I want to laugh, on the other I want to applaud. Go Guernsey! &
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You see where Russia added the Isle of Man to their list of hostile nations?

If it weren't for the severity of the situation in Ukraine, all this sniveling, whining, finger pointing and list waving by Russia would be a comedy of epic proportions.
 
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