"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (28 Viewers)

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Turkey's playing Russia's game of using its expats and ethnic cousins to drive policy.

Return of Crimea to Ukraine a requirement of international law: Turkish president

Ensuring safety, well-being of Crimean Tatars among Türkiye's priorities, Recep Tayyip Erdogan says - Anadolu Ajansı
www.aa.com.tr

"Türkiye does not recognize the annexation of Crimea - this step is illegitimate and illegal. Ensuring the safety and well-being of our Crimean Tatar compatriots is also among Türkiye's priorities"

Now, at tomorrow's meeting settle matters with Finland and Sweden and approve them for NATO membership next week.

Swedish FM confirms NATO talks with Finland, Turkey on Friday

Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde has confirmed that envoys from Finland, Sweden and Turkey are due to meet for talks on Friday over the two Nordic nations joining the NATO
www.business-standard.com
 
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Spain has delivered lethal equipment to Ukraine for the first time. Including the anti-aircraft battery (type unknown yet). Earlier, Spanish assistance was limited to ammunition and auxiliary equipment.
Muchas gracias!

Defensa refuerza la ayuda militar a Ucrania con más armamento y vehículos blindados

El anuncio coincide con las quejas del embajador ucranio por la escasez en el envío de material defensivo al país, que este miércoles celebra el Día de la Independencia
elpais-com.translate.goog
 
Well done Spain. I was disappointed to read that Spain's Leopard 2 MBTs we're in such disrepair as to be impossible to donate.

Spain Withdraws Offer to Send Leopard Tanks to Ukraine

Spain has canceled a plan to send its German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine to help defend against the ongoing Russian invasion.
www.thedefensepost.com
 
Admiral Beez said:
Well done Spain. I was disappointed to read that Spain's Leopard 2 MBTs we're in such disrepair as to be impossible to donate.
Click to expand...
That was the oficial reason but also the transfer need aproval from Germany and wasn't granted. Even if they were in very bad shape they could be useful as a source of spare parts if other Leo 2 were coming... but that is not the case. German chancellor knows why.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Kherson by Christmas would show the world that Ukraine is unstoppable.
Click to expand...

I believe Kherson will be recaptured in your timeline. The Russians have three main impediments:

1) Logistics: the bridges supplying the Russians in the area are broken or being broken, and the warehouses and ammo dumps have been and are being targeted specifically. They will have less to eat, and less to fight with, and it will be harder to get those supplies to the front.

2) Manpower: similar to above, feeding reinforcements into the battle will be difficult, and further, Russia will most likely be borrowing them from the Donbas front. Moving them from the Donbas will be circuitous, eat up still further supplies, and be subject to long-range strikes in which the Ukrainians have shown capability. This will also weaken the one front where they've gained undeniable success -- will they be willing to risk that by weakening those forces?

And the quality of those troops may well be open to question, after what we've seen in the last six months.

3) The inability of the Black Sea fleet to provide support given its vulnerability to Ukrainian missiles means that those Russian troops in the area will be relying on organic artillery and aviation for fire-support. The Russian air force seems pretty cautious about hazarding its planes and pilots right now, but that can change. Of course, they may decide to risk the BS fleet anyway (golly, I love that abbreviation!) but will likely suffer further casualties in so doing.

***

In total, it seems to me that the Russians will be forced into a more static situation, while the Ukrainians will be able to exploit the dynamics of interior lines better in order to apply more force at the schwerpunkt.

That's just my reading of the situation, supported by the articles I've been reading. I may be optimistic, too. But I don't think my optimism is unjustified, for the above reasons.
 
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Thumpalumpacus said:
He's still avoiding broader conscription, it seems.
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True. However if he is finding it almost impossible to fill the gaps he already has, he might as well sign a mandate to increase the size of the Army to 3 or 5 million. It will not happen unless there is general mobilisation. Plus of course what are they going to be armed with, if the Russian forces are already having to use T62's, dig out the T55's?

It looks to me as if its little more than PR as the Ukraine have said that they can have 1 million under arms in I think nine months
 
Glider said:
It looks to me as if its little more than PR as the Ukraine have said that they can have 1 million under arms in I think nine months
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Right, though I have to say I'm a little skeptical of Ukrainian goals in this regard. They may well be able to do that, but that's something relying upon raw money -- you have to pay your troops, right? That's nothing that international aid can solve outside of simple donations of funds. A million men under arms, making (numbers hypothetical) $2000/month on average, is $2 billion/month. Do the Ukrainians have that in the war chest? I know the UK has ceded simple financial grants to this end, but can the Ukrainians pay that force, and for how long?
 
There was an interesting debate on the radio a fewf days ago. The general conclusion was that 1 million would be possible, but it would take a lot longer than the Ukraine believed but 750,000 was possible. Which I thought would be a pretty good result.
It did depend on supplies from allies and more rationalisation, as the logistical challenge of keeping all the different types going will at some point, become insurmountable.
 
I just heard an interview on radio of a candidate for house or senate from Arizona, I think it was. I began to listen better when the interviewer asked about seal training twice. The candidate said although he survived hell week his instructors said he wasn't ready because of his lack of support for fellow trainees and seemed to be more concerned with his own graduation. He was told to gain maturity and try next year. He tried two years later and graduated. When asked about Ukraine, he said we should be using our money to secure our own border rather than Ukraine's. In my opinion, he still lacks the maturity to be a member of the team.
 
Escuadrilla Azul said:
That was the oficial reason but also the transfer need aproval from Germany and wasn't granted.
Click to expand...
What's with the Germans? If asked I'm sure Canada would donate fifty Leo2s, but only with Germans support.

Germany Prevents Spain From Sending Tanks to Ukraine

The US and Germany would have to give their thumbs up to the deal before the armor was shipped.
sofrep.com

"According to Der Spiegel, "The Scholz government warned Spain that it would constitute a departure from an alleged informal decision by the West not to provide Western tanks to Ukraine."
 
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Let me guess: he uses the word "libtard" in conversation.
 
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