"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (12 Viewers)

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The Ukraine also recovered an AEW system from a downed Su-30SM last month, too.

Ukraine has allegedly captured one of Russia's most advanced aerial electronic warfare pods

It could be a boon for U.S. intelligence.
interestingengineering.com
 
Will Belorussia move against Ukraine?
If Belorussia is ordered to invade, will their army
obey? Will that army turn on Lukashenko or has it already been co-opted by Russia? Are the Russian troops in Belorussia there for the fourth front or are they there to coerce Lukashenko's troops? Will the populace stand for it?
If Belorussia turns out Lukashenko, will Russian troops move on the capitol?
These and other questions are open for discussion. As always, no wagering.
 
I thought this reporting and analysis was pretty insightful (BBC, again...sorry!). First off, the initial report. Note Lukashenko's comment about the number of Russians that will be joining this combined task force:

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has said Belarus and Russia will deploy a joint military task force in response to what he called an aggravation of tension on the country's western borders, Belarusian media are reporting.
"Do not count on a large number of troops of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. But it will be more than 1,000 people," the website Zerkalo quoted Lukashenko as saying.
Lukashenko, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said the two countries started pulling forces together two days ago, apparently after the explosion on Russia's bridge to Crimea, state news agency Belta reported.
But he does not say where the troops will be deployed.
Lukashenko also claimed that Ukraine was preparing an attack on his country's territory.
"I've said already that today Ukraine is not just discussing but planning strikes on the territory of Belarus," Belta quoted Lukashenko as saying.
"My answer was simple: 'Tell the Ukrainian president and other madmen that the Crimea bridge will seem like a walk in the park if they touch even a metre of our territory with their dirty hands.'"


The Belarus Defence Minister has piled on, again affirming that Belarus doesn't want to go to war. The tone is very much "leave us alone and we'll leave you alone."

Belarusian Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin has said his country doesn't want to wage war on Ukraine or other neighbouring countries - but warned against provocations, according to Belarusian media.
Khrenin said Belarus - a strong ally of Russia - was concerned by suggestions that its army might attack Ukraine.
"The only thing we can say is this: do not provoke us, we are not going to wage war on you. We do not want to fight either Lithuanians or Poles or, especially, Ukrainians," Khrenin said, according to the Zerkalo website.
He also warned the West against "acts of provocation", adding "you do not want a war with us, nor do we with you".
As we reported earlier, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said today that Russia and Belarus would deploy a joint military task force - though he didn't say where they would be deployed.
He also accused Ukraine of planning strikes on Belarus, according to comments reported by state media.
And the AFP news agency is reporting that he said Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine were training Belarusian "radical militants" to carry out "sabotage, terrorist attacks and to organise a military mutiny".
Poland, which shares a border with Belarus, has advised its citizens to leave the country, according to Reuters.


The BBC's analysis is that Lukashenko does NOT want to get directly involved in the fighting in Ukraine, and that today's statements are more posturing to keep Vlad on-side than any true change in direction for Belarus. Lukashenko isn't popular at home and he knows it. If he's going to keep his grip on power, he can't afford to be seen by his own people as merely a puppet of Moscow:

Alexander Lukashenko - the leader of Belarus - is under pressure to show solidarity with Vladimir Putin in this war, especially as Russia's international isolation increases.
Belarusian territory, which lies to the north of Ukraine, has been key to the invasion from the start.
Russian tanks rolled across the Belarusian border on the way to Kyiv at the beginning of the conflict, and Belarus is still a launchpad for Russian missiles.
But Lukashenko's watchword is "stability" and he's always pledged not to involve his country's soldiers directly in the fighting - not to get "dragged into" this war.
He knows there's no appetite for that at home, and this is the president who faced unprecedented, giant street protests two years ago against his highly controversial re-election.
He's imprisoned hundreds of his critics and thousands more have fled the country. He survived as leader in large part because of Vladimir Putin's overt support.
Today's talk of forming a "joint task force" with Russia looks more like gesturing than a switch to direct involvement. But Lukashenko is walking a political tightrope. Belarus is one to watch.


All that said, the comment "Belarus is one to watch" is absolutely correct and aligns with SaparotRob 's comments. How will Putin respond if Lukashenko refuses to kiss Vlad's ring? Will Putin take action against Belarus which could make for an interesting agglomeration of anti-Russian allies in eastern Europe. If Lukashenko does kowtow to Moscow, will the Belarus armed forces obey? Definitely one to watch!
 
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Putin needs both bodies to swell his dwindling force and a second front to take the pressure of his collapsing forces in the east. Lukashanko can provide both.

It's interesting that all of a sudden, Belarus is "being threatened", as if Ukraine gave a rat's ass about them in the first place but, all this comes after the meeting between Putin and Lukashanko in St. Petersburg over the weekend.

So we know for a fact the Der Fuhrer is leaning on his puppet.
 

I take it you did not read my post but just responded to it? The EW vehicle you link to is specifically the Taran-M I mentioned in my own post, and it is far from new, regardless of what headlines might claim. There is no doubt the Barnual-T is new'ish (first shown in around 2011'ish, I think IOCed 2017 or so), and nice to get ahold of, but it has been offered for export sale for a few years now.

Again, I did not say there were no new things being captured, I said "not many". The vast majority of things shown on social media are things that have been in use 15 years or more.

T!
 

I'm sure Lukashanko is being threatened, just not by NATO or Ukraine.
 

Hopefully that anti Lukashenko forces can now make a move on replacing him though I doubt any troops stationed near him will go
 
More signs Russian armour stocks are getting low.

Increasing amounts of T-62M/MV being destroyed or captured by Ukraine. At least 30 in the past month (Oryx literally can't keep pace with the reports)
T-72As have been reported as being transported out of storage depots for deployment to the central Donestk area (the last one of those was manufactured in 1984 or 1985).
T-72s (yes, not even T-72As, just plain old T-72s) and T-72Bs reported being transferred from Belarus back to Russia. Belarus got 70+ T-72B3s from Russia in the immediate pre-war and early war period. There is speculation these may just be going back to Russia for upgrades, but it's not like Russia has a whole lot of spare capacity when it comes to repairing/upgrading tanks for foreign nations at the moment.


I also think I found a good answer to why so many T-62s are being seen in Ukraine (seemingly in preference to the thousands of T-64s, T-72s and T-80s that are reportedly still in storage).

When the T-62 was declared obsolete against western tanks in the late 1970s, use was transferred to second line commands, mostly in the Far East. These units don't train as much as first line units with T-72s/T-80s so their tanks didn't get that worn out. And the harsh weather in these regions meant that a lot of tanks were stored indoors.

These T-62s were also in more recent use - some second line units were still officially operating T-62s until as late as 2012, and were mothballed after that. The T-62 is also reportedly simpler/faster to restore from storage to service, less fuel hungry than the third generation tanks and has a smaller overall logistics trail. So it got preference over the newer tanks when reactivations occurred for lower intensity conflicts like Chechnya and Georgia. Which meant that the tanks were being kept up to date for second line use - as many as 900 were modified to the latest T-62M or MV standard prior to 2012.

So, there's a pool of (somewhat) modernised, well stored and reasonably maintained T-62s in storage. They're easier to put back into service, less logistics heavy and while the gun/armour/sighting systems is not up to moderns standards, they're considered "good enough" to support infantry and act as ersatz artillery/assault guns.
 
Given the 62 needs a crew of four vs. three on the later autoloader types - one wonders if the RF has the manpower to fully crew them up? Running them short-crewed might work for defensive situations but in most other respects we're talking quite an old design firing soviet legacy ammunition (115mm rounds only really used by the Rapira AT gun and T-62) manned by reserve crews...... what's the worst that can happen?

*I'm not an AFV expert but even I can foresee some hiccups.
 
vikingBerserker said:
I think if Lukashanko plunges Belarus into this war he is going to create a major issue in his own land.
Click to expand...

His political survival would be questionable, given his deep unpopularity and suspicions about the legitimacy of his last "re-election". His defense minister has already said, on the record, that Belarus doesn't want in on the fight.

The tea-leaves read to me like the Belorusian government is walking a very thin line between appeasing Putin and preserving Lukashenko's political viability.
 
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