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By the end of November Ukraine may have seven or eight different SAM systems. So far I've seen reports of NASAMS (USA/UK), Crotale (France), IRIS-T (Germany), Hawk (Spain), SAMP-T (Italy/France), plus their own S-300 and SA-11 systems originally from Russia. Ukraine is asking India for the Barak-8 Indo-Israeli Missile System. Britain has now deployed its Sky Sabre air defence system to Poland, so giving a few to Ukraine isn't out of the question. The NATO designs will have some interoperability, but will there be any issues coordinating all these disparate systems?Spanish and french SAMs on the way to Ukrainia:
Did some research on Russian fossil fuel earnings, prompted by discussions over at Tanknet.org. Thought this might be informative here too:
In the first 30 days of the war, Russia's fossil fuel exports earned an average of $1130 million per day. This dropped to an average of $702 million a day over September (and $657 million over the first week of October). So, at current figures they're losing an average of about $450-475 million per day in lost exports (down a little more than 40%).
Russian fossil fuel exports to the EU dropped from an average of $713 million per day over the first 30 days of the war to $251 million per day over the past 30 days. For October, it's averaged $234 million. US imports have dropped from $34 million to $2 million and South Korean and UK imports have dropped to similar amounts. Gas imports are (baseline) forecast to be down 45% this year, -55% in 2023, up to -80% by 2025 and potentially totally finished by 2027.
Meanwhile, Chinese imports of Russian fossil fuels averaged $174 million over the past 30 days, compared to $169 million over the first 30 days. Turkish imports have grown from $71 million to $92 million. Indian imports are the biggest gain, going from $15 million to $55 million over the last 30 days.
Some of the overall earnings decline is the swing in prices in global oil & natural gas markets - which peaked in March and then again spiked in June. However, even with the ~20% crude price rally since late September, Russian foreign trade earnings from fossil fuels continued to decline in October.
Given that oil exports are 14% of Russia's GDP and gas exports are about 2%, that's going to sting economically.
Interesting analysis of Russian missile stockpiles, and use of S-300s in surface-to-surface mode. There's also some interesting analysis of the Russian claims that it's Ukrainian defensive missiles causing damage in urban areas:
War in Ukraine: Is Russia’s stock of weapons running low?
Some security experts say Russia's supplies are stretched, especially of modern missiles.www.bbc.com
If they where Germans, you know they have reputation of being methodical to extreme levels, they will keep removing the nukes from older missiles and installing on the newest one on a systematic strict monthly basis. However, being Russians, i bet the nukes are still on expired missiles.I wonder if they will take the nuclear tipped ballistic missles and put conventional warheads on them.
Interesting analysis of Russian missile stockpiles, and use of S-300s in surface-to-surface mode. There's also some interesting analysis of the Russian claims that it's Ukrainian defensive missiles causing damage in urban areas:
War in Ukraine: Is Russia’s stock of weapons running low?
Some security experts say Russia's supplies are stretched, especially of modern missiles.www.bbc.com
Right, but it's a Soviet one, known in many languages across the USSR.You pretend to pay,
We pretend to work.
Old Russian proverb
Taking into account the lack of missiles that most people accept that now exist in Russia, the following piece I found interesting
What makes you think the rumours are right.
We'll have to see. Putin is under pressure from hawks in his country to go full-bore. If they still have missiles left he may have his hand forced in order to quell dissent from the right-wing there.
On social media there have been reports going back at least as far as July that the S300 has been used as a ground attack system or in a ground attack role. And that makes some sense, or at the very least it should not be a surprising capability. Assuming the S300 has either a helo mode or a manual forced launch mode, it should be possible to use those modes to launch on a fixed location.
It also has to be remembered that the S300 is a family of missiles and systems, not just one specific missile type. The S300P, S300PT, S300PS, S300PM, S300PMU, S300PMU1, and S300PMU2 (and how many others I may have missed) are all S300's, but of different ages and capabilities. And that does not even start to go into the S300V stuff (S300V is a different line, which also carries the "S300" designation).
Talking about Russian missiles can get confusing to the unfamiliar. The same missile or missile system can have multiple names or designations it is known by. The terms V500, S300Px, 5V55, and SA-10 may all be used to describe the same missile. And then you get into the variations of each missile, do we mean the 5V55K or the 5V55R? The S300PT or the S300PS?
The point I am trying to make (and thus far failing) is that there are a lot of different "S300" missile types. Some are essentially obsolete, if not in performance than in the fact it has been replaced by something else. The Russians might be using up the oldest first, getting rid of missiles they no longer consider to be first rate, to do a needed task. For example, the original 5V55K or 5V55KD was command guided ( Almaz S-300P/PT/PS/PMU/PMU1/PMU2 / Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf / SA-10/20/21 Grumble / Gargoyle ) and would have had a much more limited range against maneuvering targets. But, against a non-maneuvering target, or a fixed target, you could push the range out to closer to the kinematics of the missile and still have a high probability of success.
It would tell a lot more about Russian issues / intent if we could get more detail on what is being done, i.e. are they just shooting up old original missiles to get them out of the inventory (most missiles have a limited shelf life, missile grain issues and such, they might even be using expired missiles), or are they shooting 48N6's that might indicate they are dipping into newer inventory in desperation? But we, at this level, are not likely to get that kind of information.
T!
Yes, but the only way he can win is by destroying Ukraine entirely by using the big red button. No amount of missiles at this stage will bring Ukraine to its knees, and certainly not if those missiles continue to be used against non-military targets.
So, what does success look like for Russia and will Ukraine be willing to accept the terms of that "success"? I suspect the respective answers are "nobody knows" and "hell no!" If my supposition about success criteria is correct, then this truly is an unwinnable war for Moscow.