"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

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The headlights caused me doubts. WW2 vehicles used slits and subdued lights. That's why I asked. Also I thought the photog, if real, stayed too long.
 
Looks like Russia is preparing for the Battle of Kherson.
Russia needs to hold Kherson while they prepare defensive lines between it and Armiansk, Crimea. As it stands now, there's nothing but open country and wide highways between Kherson and this first city in Crimea. This will not be a relative "cakewalk" like Kyiv or Kharkiv with the Russians fleeing and leaving behind intact tanks and kit.

Ukraine cannot afford to take heavy losses in urban fighting in Kherson. So my guess is that the AFU will instead take the Kakhovka dam and then fight their way along the Dnieper's southern bank until Kherson is cut off from the south. With both banks of the Dnieper in AFU hands the Ukrainians on the southern bank can be resupplied by boat and pontoon bridges.
 
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MOSCOW, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Friday said that the "partial mobilisation" Russia announced in September was complete.

Speaking at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin broadcast on state television, Shoigu said that 82,000 mobilised recruits were in the conflict zone, with a further 218,000 in training.




Think about that for a moment: 82,000 recruits are already fighting battle-hardened Ukrainians.
 
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Speaking at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin broadcast on state television, Shoigu said that 82,000 mobilised recruits were in the conflict zone, with a further 218,000 in training.
Considering that Ukraine's army now has about 900,000 well-equipped, fed, led and motivated active personnel; you're going to need a bigger boat.

Ukraine claimed 700,000 in July, so I estimate from there.

 

Compare also the fact that Ukraine is sending thousands of enlistees to the UK for both basic military training as well as advanced infantry training before they are redeployed into theatre, iirc it's about a twelve-fifteen week program.

If this is correct (and if it isn't I'll gladly take correction on board), the implication is that even the new recruits on each side will have a marked disparity in combat value.

Further deduction leads me to think that deploying 80,000 recruits with less than one months' training bespeaks desperation on the part of the Russians. Even with ~8,000 of these draftees going to Belarus, the Russians are putting a lot of faith in hoping that 70,000 greenhorns will hold the lines while their veterans regroup and redeploy.
 
From what I've reading and viewing from analysts, Bakhmut isn't even strategic. There's nothing there, no roads or rail that control the frontlines. Attacking this place does nothing to relieve the strain of Ukrainian offensives in Luhansk or the Kherson. It's a waste of Russian troops.
 

This article, linked in the sidebar of your linked post, is also a very interesting read. I'd never heard of Mick Ryan before this war, but the analyses you and a couple of others have posted from him are really cogent and almost always worth the time to read and consider.
 
Those recruits are just speed bumps. It's putler's version of Zap Brannigan's strategy. Keep throwing your troops headlong at the enemy until he's out of ammunition. I'm not joking. The wretches he's sending might include a few guys who might shoot back, slowing the Ukrainians. Putler and his oligarchal system holds no value in human life.
 
Russians claim that Bakhmut is a "strategic supply center" for the Ukraine military.

The battle at/around the town has been going on since August and my guess is that it's the only option that Russia sees for an offensive victory since they've been getting their ass kicked everywhere else.
Taking the town will enable Putin to claim "we're winning!"

I seriously doubt that's going to happen, though.
 

Right, I get that. I just think it's a stupid way to run a railroad. When your rearguard isn't stout, you run the risk of seeing a retreat turn into a rout ... and they've already seen that in the Kharkiv area using veterans, fer chrissakes.
 
When your rearguard isn't stout, you run the risk of seeing a retreat turn into a rout ... and they've already seen that in the Kharkiv area using veterans, fer chrissakes.
Routs agreed, the hundreds of intact AFVs captured supports this. But the lack of tens of thousands of Russian POWs suggests the AFU has been unable to fully exploit these routs, allowing the Russians to essentially walk away to fight again another day.
 
There is just so fast an intelligent army can advance. If the opponent is blindly running in panic (food still cooking in the washing machine), the opponent isn't thinking about logistics.
 

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