"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (22 Viewers)

[J_P_C]

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

So what does Ukraine and the AFU do now? The Russian expectation is that both sides will now sit tight whilst the wet and cold of autumn and winter set in, with each side settling for artillery exchanges while they reinforce, resupply and regroup, until restarting offensive ops in spring 2023. But does this play more to Russia's advantage? By spring 2023 the southern bank of the Dnieper will be heavily defended.

A possible autumn/winter move for the AFU is to repeat the Sept 2022 feint, where the Russians were led to believe that the Ukrainians were focused on a Kherson offensive, leading Moscow to deploy much of their forces to the Kherson region. As we saw, this thus allowed the Ukrainians to successfully launch their intended offensive in the Kharkiv region. But to repeat this now in autumn/winter will require the AFU to rely on modern roads.

So, what does Ukraine do now?

Once the ground freezes, off-road ops will be easier. I think the Russian expectations of a quiet period may be wishful thinking.

 

[J_P_C]

Once the ground freezes, off-road ops will be easier. I think the Russian expectations of a quiet period may be wishful thinking.

considering weather forecast it may be just 3 weeks from now....

 

[GrauGeist]

The Ukraine MoD has stated that Ukrainian forces will continue to keep pressure on Russian forces and their offensive will not stop because of the onset of winter.

There is talk of an offensive to take Melitopol, which would drive a solid wedge between Russian held territories.

As I mentioned earlier, I would be looking to Meriopol as an objective, since there is less territory to push through and would provide a solid anchor on the coast to divide the Russian forces in two.

Melitopol would be close to having the same effect and either scenario will put Russian forces to the north and south in jeopardy of encirclement.

Ukraine Signals It Will Stay on the Offensive, Despite Talk of a Lull (Published 2022)

Many analysts and diplomats have suggested there could be a pause in major combat, and even peace talks, over the winter, but after pushing the Russians out of Kherson, Ukraine has no desire to stop.

www.nytimes.com

 

[SaparotRob]

So what does Ukraine and the AFU do now? The Russian expectation is that both sides will now sit tight whilst the wet and cold of autumn and winter set in, with each side settling for artillery exchanges while they reinforce, resupply and regroup, until restarting offensive ops in spring 2023. But does this play more to Russia's advantage? By spring 2023 the southern bank of the Dnieper will be heavily defended.

A possible autumn/winter move for the AFU is to repeat the Sept 2022 feint, where the Russians were led to believe that the Ukrainians were focused on a Kherson offensive, leading Moscow to deploy much of their forces to the Kherson region. As we saw, this thus allowed the Ukrainians to successfully launch their intended offensive in the Kharkiv region. But to repeat this now in autumn/winter will require the AFU to rely on modern roads.

So, what does Ukraine do now?

Whatever the AFU does, it will come from an unexpected axis, catch the Russians off-guard and impress the crap out of us again.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Ukraine MoD has stated that Ukrainian forces will continue to keep pressure on Russian forces and their offensive will not stop because of the onset of winter.

There is talk of an offensive to take Melitopol, which would drive a solid wedge between Russian held territories.

As I mentioned earlier, I would be looking to Meriopol as an objective, since there is less territory to push through and would provide a solid anchor on the coast to divide the Russian forces in two.

Melitopol would be close to having the same effect and either scenario will put Russian forces to the north and south in jeopardy of encirclement.

Ukraine Signals It Will Stay on the Offensive, Despite Talk of a Lull (Published 2022)

Many analysts and diplomats have suggested there could be a pause in major combat, and even peace talks, over the winter, but after pushing the Russians out of Kherson, Ukraine has no desire to stop.

www.nytimes.com

The main reason I'd favor Melitopol is that it would present three different options for follow-up, leaving the Russians to guess where the next shoe is gonna drop. It'd also bring the Kerch Strait inside ATACMS range.

 

[SaparotRob]

I think Ukraine will take Belgorod and offer to swap it for Crimea and a utility infielder to be named later.

 

[GTX]

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Lol, status unchanged. Come here and take it if you dare.

Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat

The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

 

[wlewisiii]

Well, of course its status is unchanged now.

Just as it was unchanged by the fake referendum and illegitimate annexation.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

 

[GTX]

Ukraine has battle-hardened commanders in place on all fronts - defense official

Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar says Ukraine has powerful and battle-hardened commanders on all fronts. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[GTX]

A few days old but still of interest:

 

[buffnut453]

Once the ground freezes, off-road ops will be easier. I think the Russian expectations of a quiet period may be wishful thinking.

Agree entirely. If Ukraine has the ability to generate the required force levels and manoeuvre them to attack in an unexpected place, then they'd be foolish to take their foot off the gas and give Russian forces time to recover and re-equip. Keep the offensive rolling to keep Russia on the back foot.

 

[GTX]

By skipping G20, Putin cements his loner status. But he may be too scared to leave the Kremlin

From Tony Abbott's "shirtfront" vow to wild press conferences with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin always brings drama to global summits. But this year, the risks are too great for him to leave the Kremlin unattended.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SaparotRob]

Lol, status unchanged. Come here and take it if you dare.

Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat

The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Russia must have THE best Kool-Aid in the world.

 

[SaparotRob]

Oops. Accidentally hit reply while reading your post.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Agree entirely. If Ukraine has the ability to generate the required force levels and manoeuvre them to attack in an unexpected place, then they'd be foolish to take their foot off the gas and give Russian forces time to recover and re-equip. Keep the offensive rolling to keep Russia on the back foot.

Agreed. And NATO will ensure the Ukrainians have the necessary winter clothing and kit to maintain combat ops. This is where Canada can really help, as we likely have thousands of army-spec winter clothing in stores.

Here's some CAF soldiers, looking like they're on Hoth.

Minister Anand announces new Canadian military aid to Ukraine at Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting - Canada.ca

At today’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels, Belgium, Defence Minister Anita Anand announced that Canada will provide over $47 million in new military aid to assist Ukraine as it fights for its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.

www.canada.ca

• 400,000 pieces of winter clothing for a total of $15 million. This critical winter equipment includes jackets, pants, boots, gloves, and parkas sourced from Canadian companies through the Canadian Commercial Corporation. An additional 100,000 pieces will come from CAF inventory.

 

[buffnut453]

The BBC is reporting a huge explosion at one end of the Kakhovka Dam. The video footage shows a substantial blast. I'm wondering if it was a booby-trap left by the Russians in an attempt to blow up the dam?

Ukraine war: Celebration in Kherson - but war 'far from over'

Jubilant scenes are continuing after Ukraine took back the city of Kherson from Russia.

www.bbc.com

Good to see the whole area on the west bank of the Dnipr coloured purple on the maps.

 

[GrauGeist]

Intellegence sources revealed that the Russians had placed mines around the dam back in late September/early October - aside from the danger of flooding to towns downriver, the Nuclear plant and hydro-elecric systems would be affected.