"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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Which leaves me to wonder what their levels of manpower are in strategic areas like their border with China, their far-eastern bases and garrisons as well as the western (European) border.
They must be keeping some regular Army at those locations, but have they drawn from those locations to bolster their units in Ukraine?

And I haven't seen any mention of Naval Infantry being deployed in theater, either.
 
Here is something, though how do you refer to something as elite and recently mobilized in the same sentence?

Elite Russian Marine Unit 'Nearly Destroyed' Near Ukraine’s Vuhledar - The Moscow Times

An elite Russian naval infantry unit made up of mostly mobilized troops has lost nearly all its troops in fighting near the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, Russian media reported Monday, citing one of the survivors.
www.themoscowtimes.com
 
Yeah, that is a bit confusing.

Russian Naval Infantry is (was) highly specialized much like Marines or even the Imperial Japanese Special Naval Landing Forces.

I do know that Russia transferred their specialized unit from Kaliningrad and it was chewed up in Ukraine, almost to the point of non-existance.

But I really haven't heard much of the Naval Infantry. Well, until now - thanks for the link.
 
Going along similar thoughts. There seems to be a general agreement that Russia has lost more than half of their tanks and armoured vehicles. Working on the basis that these on average would have been the more modern and up to date bits of kit, the general quality of a Russian unit must have fallen quite considerably.
I am sure we have all seen the video of the tanks and APC's driving around mindlessly in a minefield getting blown up one after another which seems to have supported this fall in effectiveness.
You can see why Russia is depending on its artillery, it seems to be one of the few aces in its hands. After all it doesn't take a lot of training to load and fire a cannon.
 
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Russia has a big problem when it comes to maintenance and replacement of military assets due to the massive reliance
on outside suppliers. The flow of the majority of the items needed has simply stopped.

In all there are more than 175,000 items which affects submarines, cruise missiles, air defence systems, many types of
aircraft and basically anything else that needs computer chips of any type.

640 of the parts required used to come from Ukraine - someone wasn't thinking there.

Over 4,000 items were planned to be copied and to this stage the amount is none. Other attempts in the last few years
to locally produce an expected 18,000+ substitutes has only yielded 3,000+ parts but only for five items.

Although I have seen a lot of articles about the population disparity between Russia and Ukraine with the conclusion that
Ukraine loses when it comes to attrition the truly pathetic state of the Russian military and the inability to maintain equipment
balances everything. Once Ukraine starts to get more 'aggressive' equipment the balance will tip squarely in their favour.
 

One implication of this is that Russia cannot win with a quick offensive any more.
 
Russian forces are reportedly increasing their use of airpower in Ukraine but are unlikely to dedicate significant amounts of airpower to combat operations over Ukrainian-controlled territory. The Financial Times (FT), citing shared NATO-member intelligence, reported on February 14 that Russia is massing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft near the Russo-Ukrainian border and suggested that Russian fighter jets may support an offensive on the ground.[15] Russian opposition outlet Important Stories, citing an internal Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) source, reported on February 16 that the Russian military is changing tactics and has committed to using large amounts of airpower in Ukraine.[16] A senior NATO official reported that 80 percent of Russia's airpower remains intact and that Russian forces have been attempting to disable Ukrainian air defenses in preparation for a large strike campaign.[17] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on February 16 that Russian sortie rates have increased over the past week to levels last seen in summer 2022 but noted that Russian forces have not increased their air presence in Ukraine and assessed that Russian forces are not likely preparing for an extended air campaign.[18] US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated that current Ukrainian air defense capabilities are not sufficient to combat a renewed wave of air attacks but stated that there are no imminent signs of a massive Russian aerial attack.[19] Important Stories noted that Russian forces have not likely adequately trained enough personnel to fully crew their aircraft.[20] Russian forces would likely suffer unsustainable aircraft losses if they committed aircraft to extended combat operations like a strategic bombing campaign or close air support, especially if Western states provide Ukraine with adequate air defense capabilities.

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
One implication of this is that Russia cannot win with a quick offensive any more.
Click to expand...
I am not so sure. If they keep probing and find or make a weak spot in the Ukraine defence, and then throw everything at it, I think that there is a fair chance that Russia will make a breakthrough. How well they will be able to exploit it, now that's the question. It will depend I think on how well Ukraine can respond.

The only thing I am pretty sure about is that as Russia has already lost a high proportion of its best trained and experienced men and equipment. If this throw of the dice by Putin fails, then the Ukraine will have a good chance of taking back most if not all of the area Russia has captured. However, it's here that Ukraine will need a stronger airforce. Its lack of effective aircraft and attack helicopters will be a decisive issue.
 

That's my point -- without strong mobile assets, they will not be able to exploit a local victory and grow it into a quick victory, which is what the Russians need right now.

I suspect the Ukrainians are husbanding forces for their own offensive, to launch once they feel this Russian move has culminated.
 
In this 2022 review of the war, there are a good many points made and I find it interesting that most opinions mirror what has been discussed here in this thread.

Maybe the experts have been lurking and taking notes?

2022 REVIEW: Why has Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion gone so badly wrong?

Vladimir Putin hoped his invasion of Ukraine would result in a quick and historic victory. Instead, he ends 2022 with Russia's reputation as a military superpower in tatters. Why has the invasion of Ukraine gone so badly wrong?
www.atlanticcouncil.org
 
I am no 'expert' but I have been lurking since December '21. And I tell you proudly, This site has been amazing in the breadth and depth of aggregated material and personal insight and first hand experience it has provided. This site .... and BBC news.
Everyone here pulled into war 'consensus . Isn't it funny, one of you recently referenced "Transformation Under Fire" Kind of what happened here. I do believe the site now rules itself ... and one can see in this prelude war with its vast tapestry of factors .... so many of which are political, that there is a maturity. There are fine analytical minds posting here. Be proud ... no need for the loud.
mm
 
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