"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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Snowman said:
"The fact of the matter is they have a big powerful air force,"

www.airandspaceforces.com

Russian Air Force 'Has Lot of Capability Left' One Year On From Ukraine Invasion | Air & Space Forces Magazine

The Russian air force remains largely intact despite its grinding war in Ukraine, according to independent analysis and official comments.
www.airandspaceforces.com www.airandspaceforces.com

Aha; a big powerful... yet almost useless air force.
Click to expand...
Indeed. The paper tiger is still a paper tiger. I think this aspect of the war has exposed one of the fundamental emerging problems with modern airpower, be it western or Russian.

Aircraft that are too few, too expensive, and too time consuming to replace according to the likely attrition rates of being used in anger, are too valuable an asset to be hazarded in the roles for which they were actually designed, aren't they?

Airpower in anything other than an environment of total air supremacy is starting to seem a little reminiscent of the fleets of WW1: Both sides are husbanding them as a resource and only using them sparingly and in the lowest threat environments. It more important for both sides to have an air-force 'in being' as a strategic check to the other's.

Whilst aipower remains capable of crushing much weaker opponents over the skies of places like Iraq, in the same way as the big gun fleets of before, are they now too vulnerable to comparatively inexpensive MANPADs and SAMs over the battlefield - or drone, missile attacks on fixed bases? Have the gen 4 fighters and beyond become the dreadnaughts of the 21st century? Humbled in the same they were by mine and torpedo?
 
SplitRz said:
Indeed. The paper tiger is still a paper tiger. I think this aspect of the war has exposed one of the fundamental emerging problems with modern airpower, be it western or Russian.

Aircraft that are too few, too expensive, and too time consuming to replace according to the likely attrition rates of being used in anger, are too valuable an asset to be hazarded in the roles for which they were actually designed, aren't they?

Airpower in anything other than an environment of total air supremacy is starting to seem a little reminiscent of the fleets of WW1: Both sides are husbanding them as a resource and only using them sparingly and in the lowest threat environments. It more important for both sides to have an air-force 'in being' as a strategic check to the other's.

Whilst aipower remains capable of crushing much weaker opponents over the skies of places like Iraq, in the same way as the big gun fleets of before, are they now too vulnerable to comparatively inexpensive MANPADs and SAMs over the battlefield - or drone, missile attacks on fixed bases? Have the gen 4 fighters and beyond become the dreadnaughts of the 21st century? Humbled in the same they were by mine and torpedo?
Click to expand...

"Have the gen 4 fighters and beyond become the dreadnaughts of the 21st century?" In a word, no.

Apart from the very start of the conflict, the Ukrainian Air Force has been considerably more active than its Russian counterpart. Given the integrated SAMs in the Russian battlegroups, there aren't any "lowest threat environments" anywhere near the Russian front lines.

The Russian Air Force is suffering from a decades-long dearth of training. Even maintaining basic proficiency has been challenging, so it's not surprising that they suffered heavy losses in combat over Ukraine and are nervous about overstepping their abilities.

SAMs are undoubtedly a challenge but the combination of 5th and 4th generation capabilities, stand-off munitions, and integrated joint fires can do much to neutralize the threat of ground-based air defences. SAMs will always be a threat...but good tactics, effective training, and high aircrew proficiency can greatly impact their effectiveness.

Back in the mid-90s, I worked on a Tornado squadron coming off the back of decades of preparation in case the Cold War turned hot. We took our jets to an exercise in the US that had instrumented threat emulators as part of the bombing range. The range officer, a former Wild Weasel back-seater, did a "show-and-tell" that stitched together videos from boresighted cameras atop the threat system emulators. Our Tonkas went in at operational levels (100ft AGL) and the SAMs never got a shot off because there was simply insufficient time from unmask to the target aircraft going behind the next ridgeline. One of our pilots, a Flt Lt (O-3), led the mission to neutralize a target. He led planning for the entire gorilla package--escorts, AWACS, etc--that ensured his 8-ship of Tonkas could get to the target. He delivered one of the all-time great post-mission debriefs (usually, these were long, drawn-out affairs where everyone chimed in on what worked and what didn't work). Our pilot stood up in the briefing room, asked the range officer to pull up a graphic of the target area, declared "Bombs on target, on time" and sat down. The range officer looked at the target image, with red crosses showing the bomb hits directly on the target, and said "I have nothing more to add." I was never so proud to be part of an organization as I was in that moment.

Bear in mind that most of the SAM systems in use by Russia date from the 90s (and many are earlier). There are some very capable, and more modern, systems. However, the human in the loop will always have an outsized impact on the SAM's engagement. Response times will be non-existent if the SAM operators have left their vehicle and gone diving into trenches.

Good tactics, well executed, ensure that manned combat aircraft still have a role to play in the modern battlespace.
 
SplitRz said:
Whilst aipower remains capable of crushing much weaker opponents over the skies of places like Iraq
Click to expand...
The Allies had anticipated the Iraqi military to be an aggressive foe and were prepared for a long, hard battle.

They had at one time, been ranked in the top five militaries in the world and were fairly well equipped.

What's going on in Ukraine is the exact opposite of what happened in Iraq.
 
RogerdeLluria said:
Interesting thread (with sources) about uniforms and corruption.

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Three Russian generals are reported to have been sacked over the provision of poor-quality uniforms, which has left troops fighting in Ukraine without adequate protection against the cold. A further...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
Click to expand...

1) It's funny that Russians are having issues about winter-issue clothing, given that that was a big reason they stopped and drove back the drive on Moscow in 1941; and

2) Prigozhin is trying to plump his own balloon here. We know that he doesn't equip his own troops to this standard himself, because they're expendable. This is him trying to slur the Russian MoD for the same oversights Wagner has itself committed. It follows that this is not legitimate critique, but rather bureaucratic infighting and political positioning, even as both are guilty of the same lack of concern for their fighting troops.

As far as uniform suppliers themselves, if you have a corrupt system you're going to get grifters. When you lay down with dogs you're bound to get fleas.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
1) It's funny that Russians are having issues about winter-issue clothing, given that that was a big reason they stopped and drove back the drive on Moscow in 1941; and
Click to expand...

The Russian's have always been poorly equipped, especially for winter (which yes, it rather ironic). I'm not kidding when I say that I personally have had Russian soldiers try and trade me for US Army winter and cold weather gear because they did not have any.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
1) It's funny that Russians are having issues about winter-issue clothing, given that that was a big reason they stopped and drove back the drive on Moscow in 1941; and

2) Prigozhin is trying to plump his own balloon here. We know that he doesn't equip his own troops to this standard himself, because they're expendable. This is him trying to slur the Russian MoD for the same oversights Wagner has itself committed. It follows that this is not legitimate critique, but rather bureaucratic infighting and political positioning, even as both are guilty of the same lack of concern for their fighting troops.

As far as uniform suppliers themselves, if you have a corrupt system you're going to get grifters. When you lay down with dogs you're bound to get fleas.
Click to expand...
 
GTX said:
www.politico.com

Blinken: Crimea a ‘red line’ for Putin as Ukraine weighs plans to retake it

The secretary of state, in a private call with experts, expressed his hesitation about a possible Ukrainian offensive for the peninsula.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
Click to expand...

I think Blinken and/or Biden is reading this wrong. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already reached culmination, militarily, and they cannot go further without additional call-ups of civilians. Their military is already stretched such that the vast majority of their armed forces are already committed to this battle, and the only reserves they can call upon are untrained conscripts. Their industry is unable to even repair all the damaged tanks, much less replace the 1000+ lost. They are primed for defeat.

In that context, "red lines" don't mean anything unless Russia is willing to launch nukes, and that's not going to happen due to reprisal threats.

This American pattern of slow-going assistance, waiting for leadership from others, and continued hand-wringing in DC, is enervating. It seems to me that the real red lines are inside the Beltway, not in Crimea. Pull your heads out, ladies.
 
Snowman said:
"The fact of the matter is they have a big powerful air force,"

www.airandspaceforces.com

Russian Air Force 'Has Lot of Capability Left' One Year On From Ukraine Invasion | Air & Space Forces Magazine

The Russian air force remains largely intact despite its grinding war in Ukraine, according to independent analysis and official comments.
www.airandspaceforces.com www.airandspaceforces.com

Aha; a big powerful... yet almost useless air force.
Click to expand...

Funny how they will make demonstrations over Alaska but not support their own troops getting massacred in Ukraine.

NSFW, cussin':


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FZsYnJUaHg
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
I think Blinken and/or Biden is reading this wrong. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already reached culmination, militarily, and they cannot go further without additional call-ups of civilians. Their military is already stretched such that the vast majority of their armed forces are already committed to this battle, and the only reserves they can call upon are untrained conscripts. Their industry is unable to even repair all the damaged tanks, much less replace the 1000+ lost. They are primed for defeat.

In that context, "red lines" don't mean anything unless Russia is willing to launch nukes, and that's not going to happen due to reprisal threats.

This American pattern of slow-going assistance, waiting for leadership from others, and continued hand-wringing in DC, is enervating. It seems to me that the real red lines are inside the Beltway, not in Crimea. Pull your heads out, ladies.
Click to expand...
That is insulting to Ladies, the rest I totally agree with.
 
On a different topic, I have seen a number of reports of Ukraine converting captured T62 tanks into ARV which I have to admit is a really good idea. The T72's need more support and a T62 tank is of at best limited use as a combat tank
 
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