"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

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Whatever Ukraine does, it will be unexpected.

The Russians know it's coming. The question is whether they can read the tea-leaves right. The obvious is the Ukrainians driving on Melitopol to split the eastern and southern fronts. But that was the same obvious thing back in September, and then the Ukrainians rolled up a good portion of the eastern front, from the north.

I still like a southward slice, and think that circumstances put weight behind that -- but maybe roll up from the south from that move instead of the clear desire to clear Crimea? Hard to say. Swiveling left to Mariupol would certainly affect Russian logistics.
 

That's my sense of this battle. "We're sucking them into 20mm range!" -- meanwhile, the counterattack is poised to hit flanks that have been purloined of troops and strength by dint of the battle itself.
 

The F-16 is a better fit because it can also do air-superiority missions. That doesn't, however, mean the A-10 couldn't perform its own mission-profile. Remember that low-altitude flight works to reduce the range advantage of enemy SAMs; the lower the plane, the closer the SAM battery must be, and the SAM batteries are going to be thinking about HIMARs at a certain point.

Those F-16s will be subject to the same SAM systems up high, but are generally more vulnerable to local counter-air down low. The big advantage they offer is countering Russian missile/drone strikes of the subsonic variety, and providing some CAS/BAI.

I'd give 'em both airframes, and let them work out for themselves how they might be used.
 
Remember this?

View: https://youtu.be/AHJ7GdES5BI?list=PLMOJ05TrdIZA7pNQa5YjrHuPIDPdHPIod
BFM & AIM-9s won't help against either a modern SAM system or a fighter using appropriate tactics and weapons to pick off from afar. Real life is not Hollywood when it comes to war.
We have some powerful EW assets that should render air defense systems either ineffective or degraded.
 
The Battle for Bakhmut seems to be cristal clear for everybody except Rusia.

Putin knows something that nobody else know or have some secret purpose in it cos such a fixation is insane.
 
The Battle for Bakhmut seems to be cristal clear for everybody except Rusia.

Putin knows something that nobody else know or have some secret purpose in it cos such a fixation is insane.
It's Stalingrad all over again. There was no reason for Paulus to ignore his flanks and the greater mission
and grind his forces into nothingness. It's supposed to be a blitzkrieg, not a sitskreig.
 
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The Battle for Bakhmut seems to be cristal clear for everybody except Rusia.

Target-fixation is a thing, and has been for a long time. The Ukrainians are, I think, being adroit in taking advantage of this. If Russia wishes to persist in its illusion of this being a strategic requirement -- and that's what it is, an illusion -- the any sound general would of course continue letting them entertain that.

It's a big weakness of authoritarian countries, that they tend to grow yes-men. Or as my dad told me once when I was young, "a friend is not someone who tells you what you want to hear, a friend is someone who tells you what you need to hear." But in an autocracy such as Putin's, friends like that are hard to come by, I imagine.
 
Well, if India wants to saddle up to Russia, Pakistan might as well go the Western route. Sri Lanka and much of Africa have been sullied by China, so perhaps Pakistan thinks another path is better.

 
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