"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

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Further on China's view of Ukraine's sovereignty:

PARIS, April 23 (Reuters) - France, Ukraine and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania expressed dismay after China's ambassador in Paris questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet countries like Ukraine.

Asked about his position on whether Crimea is part of Ukraine or not, Chinese ambassador Lu Shaye said in an interview aired on French television on Friday that historically it was part of Russia and had been offered to Ukraine by former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.

"These ex-USSR countries don't have actual status in international law because there is no international agreement to materialize their sovereign status," Shaye added.

France responded on Sunday by stating its "full solidarity" with all the allied countries affected, which it said had acquired their independence "after decades of oppression".

"On Ukraine specifically, it was internationally recognized within borders including Crimea in 1991 by the entire international community, including China," a foreign ministry spokesperson said.

The spokesperson added that China will have to clarify whether these comments reflect its position or not.

www.reuters.com

Paris, Kyiv, Baltic states dismayed after China envoy questions Ukraine sovereignty

Ex-USSR countries don't have actual status in international law because there is no international agreement to materialize their sovereign status, China's ambassador in Paris said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

An international agreement is not necessary to validate national existence, but if the Chinese want that, all they need to do is look at the Minsk Accords -- where Russia itself acknowledged Ukraine's sovereignty. This is China 1) protecting its stance on Taiwan and 2) giving Russia soft support in the hopes of preparing the political landscape for an eventual Russian victory.
 
And in Ukraine itself:

Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions. Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City).[1] This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in east bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area—all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area.[2]

[...]

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely attempting to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to go over to the defensive ahead of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive. Prigozhin argued on April 21 that Russia needs to "anchor itself in such a way that it is only possible to tear out [Russian forces from their positions] with the claws of the opponent."[5] Prigozhin's comment followed a discussion of the Ramstein meeting results, Western commitments to train more Ukrainian personnel and continuous military support for Ukraine. Prigozhin also noted that Ukraine will try to "tear" Russian forces apart and that Russia needs to resist such attacks. Prigozhin has been increasingly alarmist in his recent rhetoric and has made similar statements about the uncertain future of Russian offensive operations in Donbas.[6] Prigozhin's calls for strengthening Russian defenses in occupied territories and frequent discussions of the prospects of Ukrainian counteroffensives are notable as they indicate that he is trying to amplify the discussion in the Russian domestic information space. Russia, however, continues to conduct offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

[...]

The Russian military command is likely attempting to convince Putin to turn to defensive operations as well—but may be unable to bluntly deliver this message to Putin. Some ultranationalist figures argued that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled efforts to recruit 400,000 contract servicemen to ensure that Russia has enough military personnel to defend existing frontlines and to efficiently freeze the current frontlines in Ukraine.[12] The Russian military command is also reportedly transferring conscripts to hold Russian lines in Crimea and may be planning to prepare other resources to ensure that Russia can retain some lines once the potential Ukrainian counteroffensive culminates.[13] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov are likely sensible to the threat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive but are likely continuing to send contract servicemen to reinforce senseless offensive operations at Putin's insistence.[14] Kremlin sources previously revealed that Putin favors loyalty over competence, and this sentiment likely prevents Shoigu and Gerasimov from focusing on setting optimal conditions for an efficient defense by refusing to expend Russian elite units in grinding attritional battles for marginal gains.[15]

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

1) I suspect the probing around Kherson is probably deception. I'd think the main prize would be the Russians in the field ... or if you're aiming to seize Crimea, Melitopol would seem to be the better avenue of approach.

2) If Russia insists on staying on the offensive, I think a Ukrainian offensive will catch them wrong-footed. If Putin were smart he'd listen to counsel of assuming the defensive -- or at the very least have MoD develop a spoiling attack. But he's not smart.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
1) I suspect the probing around Kherson is probably deception. I'd think the main prize would be the Russians in the field ... or if you're aiming to seize Crimea, Melitopol would seem to be the better avenue of approach.

2) If Russia insists on staying on the offensive, I think a Ukrainian offensive will catch them wrong-footed. If Putin were smart he'd listen to counsel of assuming the defensive -- or at the very least have MoD develop a spoiling attack. But he's not smart.
Click to expand...
I agree with your two assumptions and thoughts. However its interesting that Ukraine seems to have been able to establish holdings on the other side of the river without any real difficulty and make them secure. Crossing a river has always been a very difficult process, much easier to defend against than do. That Russia wasn't able to stop this happening and were unable to collapse the beachhead before it was made secure says a lot about the weakness of the Russian forces.
 
Glider said:
I agree with your two assumptions and thoughts. However its interesting that Ukraine seems to have been able to establish holdings on the other side of the river without any real difficulty and make them secure. Crossing a river has always been a very difficult process, much easier to defend against than do. That Russia wasn't able to stop this happening and were unable to collapse the beachhead before it was made secure says a lot about the weakness of the Russian forces.
Click to expand...

Perhaps. It may also mean that the Ukrainians were in detachments small enough to escape immediate detection.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
Perhaps. It may also mean that the Ukrainians were in detachments small enough to escape immediate detection.
Click to expand...
Again, you certainly could be right. The other point in the paper that I find interesting was the following: -

Russian authorities continue to arrest personnel associated with the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) likely to justify crackdowns and further conceal DIB activities. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on April 22 that it arrested the deputy head of the testing laboratory at the Promtekhnologiya weapons plant in Moscow on suspicion of treason.[28] The FSB did not provide additional details about the alleged treasonous act. The Promtekhnologiya plant participates in the development and modernization of high-tech weapons. The Promtekhnologiya plant claimed that it had not employed the arrested employee since March 2021.[29] ISW has reported on other recent arrests that are part of an ongoing crackdown using the pretext of threats to Russia's DIB

If you are at war, the war isn't going well, the enemy are getting ever more sophisticated weapons and you are finding it ever more difficult to replace your losses and equip new and resting units with modern equipment. The very last thing you do, is start cracking down on your defence industries.
It would seem to indicate that Putin is clearly putting self preservation first, whatever the cost, even if that cost is in the medium term likely to put him more at risk.
 
Another interesting story that shows Putin scraping the bottom of the barrel and signs that some senior officers are trying to protect their resources.

  • Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, sought to protect his men from deployment
  • When forced to do so, the admiral allegedly dispatched his most ill-disciplined and unreliable men to the war zone
Vladimir Putin has reportedly fired a top admiral because of his refusal to send his sailors to fight in the war against Ukraine.
Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, was suddenly stripped of the role of commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet last week during war games involving nuclear bombers ordered by the Kremlin.

Avakyants has been seeking to protect his men from deployment - to prevent them from being cannon fodder - according to Volya and Brief Telegram. The admiral had repeatedly resisted or subverted orders to send his men to fight in Ukraine.

When forced to do so he allegedly dispatched his most ill-disciplined and unreliable men to the war zone. He told Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov [Commander-in-Chief of the Navy] in plain language that he would not let the fleet be ruined - his sailors, trained officers, well-coordinated crews, would not be torn apart,' said a source in the general staff of the Russian armed forces.

He was especially angered at the losses sustained by his elite marines who were forced to go to Ukraine.

Footage in February shows the 155th brigade being defeated at Vuhledar.
'Thirty-one armoured vehicles of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade from the Russian Pacific Fleet were destroyed during an assault on Vuhledar,' reported Moscow Calling military channel at the time. Earlier 155th brigade marines wrote a letter complaining at the meat grinder tactics of Putin's commanders in Ukraine which saw '300 men killed, wounded and missing' in four days of heavy fighting in Pavlivka.

Recently, Avakyants defied the Kremlin's orders and said he would send no more troops while he was in charge of the Pacific Fleet. He objected to the demand for Ukraine-bound 'infantry formations from among the sailors of warships, submarines and auxiliary vessels', said the report.

For this insubordination, he was fired and sent on holiday - he will later be shifted to a backroom diplomatic role in Moscow.
 
A bit of optimism and some showmanship but I'm daydreaming that as soon as Bakhmut falls, the AFU is going to launch the counter offensive. The AFU will humiliate the RF forces and make major gains in an area Russia can't ignore. Then strike on the opposite side the map. Russia can't react to either side but will try. Ukraine then blows right through Bakhmut, through the defensive lines right up to Donetsk City.
I was also hoping that the Ukrainian counter attack would have seen the skies darkened by F-16s in AFU markings on 24 February of this year.
 
Glider said:
Again, you certainly could be right. The other point in the paper that I find interesting was the following: -

Russian authorities continue to arrest personnel associated with the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) likely to justify crackdowns and further conceal DIB activities. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on April 22 that it arrested the deputy head of the testing laboratory at the Promtekhnologiya weapons plant in Moscow on suspicion of treason.[28] The FSB did not provide additional details about the alleged treasonous act. The Promtekhnologiya plant participates in the development and modernization of high-tech weapons. The Promtekhnologiya plant claimed that it had not employed the arrested employee since March 2021.[29] ISW has reported on other recent arrests that are part of an ongoing crackdown using the pretext of threats to Russia's DIB

If you are at war, the war isn't going well, the enemy are getting ever more sophisticated weapons and you are finding it ever more difficult to replace your losses and equip new and resting units with modern equipment. The very last thing you do, is start cracking down on your defence industries.
It would seem to indicate that Putin is clearly putting self preservation first, whatever the cost, even if that cost is in the medium term likely to put him more at risk.
Click to expand...

Very true. Bear in mind as well that "treason" has been a Russian synonym for you're not building enough stuff going back to Putin's hero, Stalin, or has been a general cover for I don't like you any more sorts of imprisonments.
 
Glider said:
Another interesting story that shows Putin scraping the bottom of the barrel and signs that some senior officers are trying to protect their resources.

  • Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, sought to protect his men from deployment
  • When forced to do so, the admiral allegedly dispatched his most ill-disciplined and unreliable men to the war zone
Vladimir Putin has reportedly fired a top admiral because of his refusal to send his sailors to fight in the war against Ukraine.
Admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, was suddenly stripped of the role of commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet last week during war games involving nuclear bombers ordered by the Kremlin.

Avakyants has been seeking to protect his men from deployment - to prevent them from being cannon fodder - according to Volya and Brief Telegram. The admiral had repeatedly resisted or subverted orders to send his men to fight in Ukraine.

When forced to do so he allegedly dispatched his most ill-disciplined and unreliable men to the war zone. He told Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov [Commander-in-Chief of the Navy] in plain language that he would not let the fleet be ruined - his sailors, trained officers, well-coordinated crews, would not be torn apart,' said a source in the general staff of the Russian armed forces.

He was especially angered at the losses sustained by his elite marines who were forced to go to Ukraine.

Footage in February shows the 155th brigade being defeated at Vuhledar.
'Thirty-one armoured vehicles of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade from the Russian Pacific Fleet were destroyed during an assault on Vuhledar,' reported Moscow Calling military channel at the time. Earlier 155th brigade marines wrote a letter complaining at the meat grinder tactics of Putin's commanders in Ukraine which saw '300 men killed, wounded and missing' in four days of heavy fighting in Pavlivka.

Recently, Avakyants defied the Kremlin's orders and said he would send no more troops while he was in charge of the Pacific Fleet. He objected to the demand for Ukraine-bound 'infantry formations from among the sailors of warships, submarines and auxiliary vessels', said the report.

For this insubordination, he was fired and sent on holiday - he will later be shifted to a backroom diplomatic role in Moscow.
Click to expand...
I am still waiting for a Russian Klaus von Stauffenberg to step forward.
 
SaparotRob said:
A bit of optimism and some showmanship but I'm daydreaming that as soon as Bakhmut falls, the AFU is going to launch the counter offensive. The AFU will humiliate the RF forces and make major gains in an area Russia can't ignore. Then strike on the opposite side the map. Russia can't react to either side but will try. Ukraine then blows right through Bakhmut, through the defensive lines right up to Donetsk City.
I was also hoping that the Ukrainian counter attack would have seen the skies darkened by F-16s in AFU markings on 24 February of this year.
Click to expand...
Do you believe in the tooth fairy?
 
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