"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

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hostel in Omsk :D:D:D:D:D - i bet next level of comfort has been reached here thanks to benefits from "special military operation"
 
The genuine source of the Russian World. And who knows, maybe another 'Putin' is growing up somewhere here right now.
 

Regarding Gen Ryan's Pt #1: surprise will be a matter of locale rather than timing, and even that might be sketchy. The Ukrainians have already telegraphed the offensive itself, and the battlefield can and perhaps will inform the Russians about locale. They too have reconnaissance assets, some space-based, that will give them some idea of where the blow will fall. The Ukrainians must utilize interior lines in order to mask the vector of attack.

I agree that retaking Crimea is vital. I also think the Russians understand this and are likely doing what they can to beef up forces near the Azov Sea, which seems the most obvious stroke. I hope as well that the Ukrainians have enough reserves to exploit any possible successes they achieve.

His points about the failure definitions are apt. If they Ukrainians cannot get inside the Boyd Loop they may well have issues simply due to sheer numbers.

For all the good the Ukrainians did for themselves last autumn, complacency does no one any good. We can't assume that this upcoming offensive will achieve the same level of results ... even as I hope it is surpassing.
 
Russia launched a wave of missile attacks in the last six to eight hours, using strategic aircraft launching from over/near the Caspian sea and possibly ships in the Black Sea (including two subs),

Official reports from Ukrainian sources are that 15 of 18 air launched missiles were intercepted. No official word on intercepts of surface launched weapons, but some pro-Ukrainian sources are reporting 20+ missiles shot down by Ukrainian defenses.

Russian military blogger and pro-Russian social media sources are saying anywhere from 60 to above 150 missiles. Reporting is that they were launched from anywhere from 10 to 25 aircraft over the Caspian and between 4 and 20 warships.

Actual launches seem to be way below that, probably only around 20-30 actual missiles launched, with just three impacts reported. Looks like there was at least one success, with an S-300 battery hit and destroyed in Pavlohrad. This may, or may not, have been at a chemical production and storage facility which was also housing ammunition and left over solid rocket boosters from the SS-24 programme! Either way, there was a big boom there last night.

Speculation is that Russia is trying to disrupt Ukrainian infrastructure again to weaken any planned counter offensive. Targets seem to have been electrical power, communications centres and ammunition depots. Other sources point to Russia dummying up a big air/surface threat in order to spook Ukrainian forces into revealing radar sites in order to conduct follow-on strikes in the next day or so.
 

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