"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (10 Viewers)

Thumpalumpacus · May 22, 2023

buffnut453 said:
In real terms, it may be a pinprick…but in propaganda terms, Putin can easily spin this to say "See? I told you the US and NATO wanted to attack us."

He's been doing that anyway, and has previous attacks on which he bases his folderol. I don't see it giving him any more leverage over the Russian infoscape, given how he's already exaggerated the external threat.

buffnut453 said:
The situation in Belgorod will complicate Moscow's decision calculus. They have to respond to prove they can defend the ~~Father~~ oops, I mean Motherland….but where will those forces come from and what impact will that have on the fighting within Ukraine?

I suppose that depends on the size of the incursion. My impression, and I'm welcome to it being shown wrong, is that this is a small-unit operation not requiring any shifting of forces to stanch -- a one-off operation that can and probably will be pinched off. No artillery, no armor, no air-support, and likely precious little in the way of logistics, more of a gesture than a threat.

Russia won't have to work hard to show they're defending the Motherland, and with the internal media and discussion dominated by Putin's restrictions, able to be spun about in any manner.

I just don't see it making a difference one way or the other.

MiTasol · May 22, 2023

Jerad said:
Yes, that's right, and also sayed thanked for support

Welcome Jerad

MiTasol · May 22, 2023

Thumpalumpacus said:
He's been doing that anyway, and has previous attacks on which he bases his folderol. I don't see it giving him any more leverage over the Russian infoscape, given how he's already exaggerated the external threat.

I suppose that depends on the size of the incursion. My impression, and I'm welcome to it being shown wrong, is that this is a small-unit operation not requiring any shifting of forces to stanch -- a one-off operation that can and probably will be pinched off. No artillery, no armor, no air-support, and likely precious little in the way of logistics, more of a gesture than a threat.

Russia won't have to work hard to show they're defending the Motherland, and with the internal media and discussion dominated by Putin's restrictions, able to be spun about in any manner.

I just don't see it making a difference one way or the other.

Unless they abandon their vehicles and melt into the crowd before rinse and repeat

Thumpalumpacus · May 22, 2023

MiTasol said:
Unless they abandon their vehicles and melt into the crowd before rinse and repeat

You gotta sleep and eat somewhere, and new faces in that area will of course stand out.

MiTasol · May 22, 2023

In a small town. Absolutely

In a city of 1.5 million? Not very likely.

And if the rinse and repeat results in other large city governors panicking and causing evacuations then so much the better

buffnut453 · May 22, 2023

Thumpalumpacus said:
He's been doing that anyway, and has previous attacks on which he bases his folderol. I don't see it giving him any more leverage over the Russian infoscape, given how he's already exaggerated the external threat.

Yes he has but there's a big difference between isolated drone attacks and sabotage versus a ground offensive that demonstrably originated from Ukrainian territory. Any equipment or rebels that are captured by Russian forces will be used to demonstrate, in tangible terms, that the US and its Allies were behind the invasion.

I don't think Russia will significantly modify its approach to the war but I do think this land attack into Russia changes things in real terms.

Admiral Beez · May 22, 2023

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-YqivaMKLqg&pp=ygUZTWlnLTI5IGVuZ2luZSByZXBsYWNlbXdudA%3D%3D

Thumpalumpacus · May 22, 2023

buffnut453 said:
Yes he has but there's a big difference between isolated drone attacks and sabotage versus a ground offensive that demonstrably originated from Ukrainian territory. Any equipment or rebels that are captured by Russian forces will be used to demonstrate, in tangible terms, that the US and its Allies were behind the invasion.

I don't think Russia will significantly modify its approach to the war but I do think this land attack into Russia changes things in real terms.

I'm not sure I'd call this a "ground offensive", is my point. A few truckloads of partisans barreling through a border check-point don't really meet that bar to me. That it came from Ukrainian territory, well yeah, what's new? Even the local government is calling this a "sabotage group".

Now of course Putin et al may try to paint this as a "ground offensive" by NATO-backed partisans, for domestic consumption. But this won't escalate anything except perhaps internal Russian propaganda, and that is, sad to say, already lost ground for those of us who would like to see change. I don't see any signs of the Russians using this to issue another "dire threat". I think they'll shut this operation down and trumpet their victory, folding it into their internal media message.

I don't think it changes anything, except hopefully that as noted above, word-of-mouth gets around and encourages internal dissent -- which I bet is the aim of the partisans conducting this.

SaparotRob · May 22, 2023

I'm hoping this forces redeployment of some Russian troops away from where the Russians will need them.

GrauGeist · May 23, 2023

Or, what if this "White Russian" activity in Belgorod is the herald of things to come?

In other words, it's been discussed here that Russia may be crumbling on the inside and this might possibly be a prelude.

The mighty bear has exposed it's soft underbelly and you can be sure that if there was ever a time to challenge the bear, now is it (said while looking at Moldova, Georgia and Belarus).

Denniss · May 23, 2023

another critic of the russian invasion suffering from the "sudden death syndrome": Pjotr Kutscherenko, a russian deputy minister for education, died on his flight back from Cuba. He "suddenly" fell ill and died. Smells poisonous.

GrauGeist · May 23, 2023

Denniss said:
another critic of the russian invasion suffering from the "sudden death syndrome": Pjotr Kutscherenko, a russian deputy minister for education, died on his flight back from Cuba. He "suddenly" fell ill and died. Smells poisonous.

At least he didn't fall out the window.

That would have been unfortunate.

Thumpalumpacus · May 23, 2023

GrauGeist said:
Or, what if this "White Russian" activity in Belgorod is the herald of things to come?

In other words, it's been discussed here that Russia may be crumbling on the inside and this might possibly be a prelude.

The mighty bear has exposed it's soft underbelly and you can be sure that if there was ever a time to challenge the bear, now is it (said while looking at Moldova, Georgia and Belarus).

I think the attack, probably assisted by Ukrainian secret services, is a move to keep the Russians off-balance leading into the counter-offensive. Coming from outside Russia, I don't think it bespeaks internal dissolution (which may well be happening all the same), but rather an effort to put mud in their mind -- best case.

Worst case, it's an uncoordinated attack by independent forces that still serves to distract.

GTX · May 23, 2023

Who's behind the attack on a Russian town near the Ukraine border?

So-called Russian partisan groups have taken responsibility for the attacks around Belgorod, while the government blames Ukrainian "saboteurs".

www.abc.net.au

Snowman · May 23, 2023

Just another coincidence?

Russia's elite military units arrive in Kursk Oblast to conduct acts of sabotage

Russian Special Forces units have arrived in Kursk Oblast to conduct sabotage and counter-sabotage activities on the border with Ukraine and to raise the morale of Russian troops. Source: National Resistance Center press service Quote: "On the border with Ukraine, in the village of Tyotkino...

www.yahoo.com

RogerdeLluria · May 23, 2023

Frog said:
Embarrassing for the Russians is that Gayvoron is a location where nuclear ammunitions are said to be stockpiled.

True, the place can easily be seen in google maps about 10 km north of Grayvoron.

Grayvoron · Belgorod Oblast, Russia

Belgorod Oblast, Russia

www.google.com

It is reported that at some point tactical nukes where/are stored there.
Some sources say that they where removed in the 90s after the collapse of Soviet Union.
Other sources say nukes where removed last year when Russians withdraw from Kharkiv.
But other sources claim Nukes are being evacuated right now:

Russia Starts Moving Nuclear Weapons From Belgorod: Here's Why

Russia has transported its nuclear weapons away from a storage facility in Belgorod as armed groups sympathetic to Ukraine sneaked into the Russian territory.

www.ibtimes.com

RogerdeLluria · May 23, 2023

Been monitoring Ukrainian claims regarding Russian loses, (that of course has to be taken with a grain of salt)

However I noticed that since early May, especially the last 2 weeks the claims are especially leaning towards artillery pieces destroyed. More than any other system.

Denniss · May 23, 2023

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KV9nsvCgZe8covers the Belgorod operation, claims nukes were removed long time ago

Ascent · May 23, 2023

Something that occurred to me about this incursion into Russia is that, given the propensity of the Russians to use lots of artillery, they'll have to bombard Russian towns if they want to push the 'Little green men' out.

That's not going to be a good look for them.

Admiral Beez · May 23, 2023

I expect those worried about escalation are now more worried. The Free Russia Brigade may consist wholly of Russians, but it came from Ukraine. It's playing a little close to the gentlemen's agreement that the West provides the weaponry to defend Ukraine and oust the invaders, but that Ukraine will not venture into Russian territory.

If Ukraine is harbouring and presumably arming/fueling/feeding Russian separatist forces that are conducting raids into Russia, one could argue that Ukraine is using a proxy force to navigate a loophole in the agreement.

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