"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (11 Viewers)

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I imagine many potential advesaries, including NATO, the neutral Finns, Japan as well as China are surprised at the poor results and remarkably terrible tactics, equipment and preparation of the Russian armed forces. If I'm China I might be looking hungrily at the border and considering to revisit the 2005 border dispute treaty.
 
The Basket said:
The most obvious outcome is Russia wins and Ukraine or what's left of it becomes a Russian slave state.
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That outcome I think is already inviable. There is no way Rusia could win now. The invasion is widely off the plan, the ukrainian resistance is fiercer than expected and has united (mostly) the people around its president and the independence idea.

Hardly anyone un Ukrainia or any where in the world could think that the demilitarization of Ukrainia is a good idea.

It has pushed Finland and Sweden nearer to NATO, united NATO and reinforced its purpose and launched a rearmament plan across it, specially in Germany.

It had pushed the EU to cut the energy link with Rusia at light speed. Of course it won't be cheap for the EU but do Rusia have the capability to switch the customers? It could sell gas&oil at a discount to different countries but do Rusia have the infraestructure to do that? Or the money to build it?

China could rise to lend a hand but it won't be free and could turn Rusia to a vassal state of China as someone point out (sorry, don't remember who).

The myth of the russian army might lies shattered in an ukrainian ditch and can't be reborn (at least for a long time) so any new menace of the use of force against any country would be unbelivable.

Rusia would we a pariah state as long as uncle Vlad is in power.

We could only wait that Putin won't stay in power much longer and that when the end comes the West don't act like in the end of the Cold War but like at the end of WW2, with some kind of Marshall Plan to rebuild Rusia and bring it out of the darkness once and for all.

PS: Edited for some typos.
 
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Escuadrilla Azul said:
Good points.
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I fear you are incorrect my Spanish amigo.

The Russian plan has not claimed victory.....yet. The Ukrainian resistance is holding....at the moment. Time will tell us on this one.

The word win perhaps was incorrect. Perhaps achieve military goals is a better phrase.

As advised before, I believe Russia, certainly economically has taken such a high dive that it clearly finished as a modern economy. The decline is going to be biblical.

Another issue is that Russia can be turned into a democratic, peace and love country. 2 problems there is corruption is so rampant that it would be a miracle and Russia has no democratic tradition. It has always be controlled. The big bad wolf who controls the other wolves so to speak.

To be a Russian citizen today is certainly not enviable.

The main fear is that Russia simply raises the bar and becomes more unhinged as the victory in Ukraine falters. Use of chemical warfare against Kyiv is certainly an aspect. If the use of Chemical weapons seems to offer a win then I believe they would use them.

The only issue is Russia still has neutral powers or friends that may be outraged by this.

If we are still alive this time next year, then we will have greater clarity than we do now.
 

Given that they've got the Russian economy by the short hairs, I doubt Putin could do anything but acquiesce without a fight.
 
Makes sense. Still, I hope they did destroy the stocks -- it isn't worth keeping around under such conditions.
 
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I was trying to be nice to the Russian soldiery. They do have better military units than the ones used in Ukraine. Or so I had believed. The Supreme General Staff (or whatever they call it) seems to demonstrate political dependability does not translate to strategic competence.

It's getting harder and harder not to underestimate the enemy but I'm trying!
 
During WW2, (and this a WW2 forum) Stalin was all too willing to sacrifice both his soliers and people for victory. Millions of Soviets died as a result. Which Soviet Leader do you think Putin admires most and wishes to emulate?

He will do whatever it takes…

Jim
 
Rasputin ? Bare chested rather than the cassock of course.

Has always seemed odd now that you mention the name that the 'bodies' lying in state are still being preserved to be viewed at over one hundred thousand dollars
a year (I think that is right). Seems that there must still be people in the hierarchy who revere certain of those departed.

Worth noting that Kruschev is buried in an unmarked grave apparently - due to failure over the Cuban missile gambit ?
It may be that some mindsets never change.

Will Vlad be revered or end up in an unmarked plot ?
 
Regarding Russian troop-quality:



    • The early announcement of the 2022 spring draft is unlikely to increase Russian combat power in Ukraine in the near term.
    • Recent Russian efforts to create a Western-style reserve force are unlikely to materially impact combat operations in Ukraine.
    • As Russia exhausts its high-readiness units staffed with contract soldiers, the quality of reinforcements is likely to be much lower than the units first committed to the invasion.
The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains reliant on conscripts, both for its active-duty force and for its reserve forces in the event of general mobilization.[1] Most combat units must be filled out by conscripts or mobilized reservists in order to be combat-capable. Contract soldiers are concentrated in the cadre and elite units, especially the airborne units.

The cadre-and-reserve units of the Russian Armed Forces are maintained at a low readiness with a limited number of professional staff and conscripts, with the expectation that they would be staffed with reservists in the event of mobilization.[2] The Russians have already used many cadre-and-reserve units in Ukraine, and they have not performed well against the Ukrainians, with some units suffering heavy losses. Russia does not likely have a large reserve of highly skilled contract units remaining, although there are probably some uncommitted forces.

[...]

The draft affects all men aged 18 to 27 years old, though some conscripts can be as young as 16 years old.[5] Russian conscripts typically serve one year.[6] The annual conscription pool of all Russian military-aged men is approximately 1.2 million people, though only about half are compelled to present themselves at their local military commissariat (voenkomat).

[...]

Some of the fall 2021 conscripts are likely already serving in units fighting in Ukraine. The rapid employment of relatively untrained reservists is unlikely to materially increase Russia's combat power in Ukraine.

[...]

According to a 2019 RAND analysis, Russia only had 4,000 to 5,000 troops in what would be considered an active reserve in the Western sense, meaning soldiers attending regular monthly and annual training.[13]

[...]

Russia is likely rapidly exhausting the manpower it can readily use to generate additional effective combat power even as its forces lose combat effectiveness in Ukraine amid high losses. Russian efforts to mobilize more manpower can bring more people into Russian combat units, but those people are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate large amounts of new combat power.

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains
www.understandingwar.org

... and:

The Wall Street Journal reports Russia is recruiting Syrians who are "skilled in urban combat" to help the army capture Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile, Russia is also deploying units of its regional paramilitary internal security forces known as Rosgvardia, including ones controlled by Chechen ruler Ramzan Kadyrov. While these forces will help bolster Russia's numbers, experts are skeptical it will combat Moscow's manpower issue. "Bringing Syrians into Ukraine is like bringing Martians to fight on the moon," Middle East Institute Syria expert Charles Lister told the Journal, while Kagan told Forbes he "doesn't think [their help is] going to be enough" and warned against just "cobbling together" different groups. "That starts to be just a collection of individual groups of people who are running around with weapons trying to do stuff" rather than an "effective military force," Kagan said.

Russia’s Soldier Shortage: Here’s Why It’s Recruiting Foreign Fighters

Experts say Russia doesn’t have enough troops to occupy Ukraine — and recruiting Syrians and Chechen paramilitaries is unlikely to help.
www.forbes.com
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
From that Twitter thread linked above:



These measures are going to make this war Putin's undoing if they last long. These steps represent the government's confiscation of private wealth.
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Not unprecedented--even for the czarist
Listening to Mike Duncan's Revolutions podcast, one gets the feeling Russia has not been well-served by any ideologies. It also seems the Whites lost more because, while the Bolsheviks' treatment of the peasants was quite bad, that of the Whites was both equally bad and promised a return to even worse conditions than they had before the reforms between 1905 and October 1917.

Alas, Putin could as easily be following in the footsteps of many leaders of armed revolution or counter-revolution.
 
Given President Xi's support heretofore of Putin's invasion, and Xi's supporting Russian propaganda ploys even a day or two ago, I'd be surprised if that article has Xi's approval.
 
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