"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (39 Viewers)

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Admiral Beez said:
Lukashenka is apparently ill. This makes me wonder who would replace him.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlUyq4A7v-g

Would Belarusians allow Russia to march into Minsk to put a new "president" in place?
Click to expand...

There is this:

www.reuters.com

Belarus opposition told to 'be ready' for democracy push as rumours of leader's ill health swirl

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told her supporters on Monday to be ready to grab any chance to turn her country into a democracy as speculation about the health of veteran President Alexander Lukashenko swirled.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
GrauGeist said:
There is this:

www.reuters.com

Belarus opposition told to 'be ready' for democracy push as rumours of leader's ill health swirl

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told her supporters on Monday to be ready to grab any chance to turn her country into a democracy as speculation about the health of veteran President Alexander Lukashenko swirled.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...
There will be riots on the streets. Presumably the small 62,000-strong Belarussian regular army won't be able to hold back millions of citizens, meaning Russia needs to invade Belarus like it did Hungary sixty-seven years ago. But with what, when your army is fighting for its life in Ukraine?
 
GrauGeist said:
There is this:

www.reuters.com

Belarus opposition told to 'be ready' for democracy push as rumours of leader's ill health swirl

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told her supporters on Monday to be ready to grab any chance to turn her country into a democracy as speculation about the health of veteran President Alexander Lukashenko swirled.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...

If this happens, Putin will soon have another pot boiling on the stove, at a time when his forces are stretched thin. This could perhaps have broad ripples, if indeed it comes to pass.

Admiral Beez said:
There will be riots on the streets. Presumably the small 62,000-strong Belarussian regular army won't be able to hold back millions of citizens, meaning Russia needs to invade Belarus like it did Hungary sixty-seven years ago. But with what, when your army is fighting for its life in Ukraine?
Click to expand...

Not to mention that Belarusian troops may be unwilling to fire upon their own citizens. That sort of circumstance led to the overthrow of the Tsar in 1917, recall.
 
Reuters:

NEAR BAKHMUT, Ukraine, May 18 (Reuters) - The Ukrainian military and Russia's Wagner private army both reported further Russian retreats around the city of Bakhmut on Thursday, as Kyiv pressed on with its biggest advance for six months ahead of a planned counteroffensive.

Ukrainian troops near the front line said Russia was bombarding access roads to slow the Ukrainian assault, which has shifted momentum after months of slow Russian gains in Europe's deadliest ground combat since World War Two.

"Now, for the most part, as we have started to advance, they are shelling all the routes to front positions, so our armoured vehicles can't deliver more infantry, ammunition and other things," said Petro Podaru, commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit.

Ukraine's military said troops had advanced in places by more than a mile. Its forces had been on the defensive for half a year, weathering a huge offensive by Moscow that saw only slow gains.

"Despite the fact that our units do not have an advantage in equipment ... and personnel, they have continued to advance on the flanks, and covered a distance of 150 to 1,700 metres (1.1 miles)," military spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi said in televised comments.

[...]

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his forces inside Bakhmut itself are still advancing, on the cusp of pushing Ukrainian troops out of their last foothold in the built-up area on the city's western outskirts.

But he accuses commanders of Russia's regular forces of abandoning ground north and south of the city, raising the risk of troops inside being encircled.

"Unfortunately, units of the Russian Defence Ministry have withdrawn up to 570 metres (1,880 feet) to the north of Bakhmut, exposing our flanks," Prigozhin said in his latest voice message on Thursday.

"I am appealing to the top leadership of the Ministry of Defence - publicly - because my letters are not being read," Prigozhin said, addressing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

"Please do not give up the flanks."

[...]

Ukraine says its tactic around Bakhmut is to draw Russian forces into the city, so as to weaken Russia's front line defences elsewhere ahead of Kyiv's planned counterassault.

"Wagner troops climbed into Bakhmut like rats into a mousetrap," Oleksander Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, told troops at the Bakhmut front in video he released this week on social media.

"Using the principle of active defence, we resort to counteroffensive actions in some directions near Bakhmut. The enemy has more resources, but we are destroying his plans."

www.reuters.com

Russian forces in retreat near Bakhmut, Ukraine and Wagner say

Kyiv pressed on with its biggest advance for six months ahead of a planned counteroffensive.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

This further reinforces the idea posited by buffnut453 buffnut453 above that this is a matter of the Ukrainians establishing baseline conditions for the launch of their offensive. I read earlier today as well that the Russians are pulling troops from Belarus and redeploying them to the Luhansk area. If true, this implies these are a contingent of recent draftees now being assigned to guard flanks -- perhaps backfilling the airborne troops?

Either way, it looks like the Russians are in a bit of a scramble to get set for the offensive. Perhaps the Ukrainians could catch them off-balance? One can hope.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
If this happens, Putin will soon have another pot boiling on the stove, at a time when his forces are stretched thin. This could perhaps have broad ripples, if indeed it comes to pass.
Click to expand...
Indeed.
inews.co.uk

'Siberia will be free': Five Russian regions vote in unauthorised independence referendums

'Moscow takes a lot of resources from Siberia, and spends the money on its own needs and wars of aggression,' said one secessionist leader
inews.co.uk inews.co.uk
archive.is

'Siberia will be free': Russian regions vote in unauthorised independ…

archived 16 Feb 2023 22:45:06 UTC
archive.is archive.is

Thumpalumpacus said:
Not to mention that Belarusian troops may be unwilling to fire upon their own citizens. That sort of circumstance led to the overthrow of the Tsar in 1917, recall.
Click to expand...
I'm reminded of Slovenia, at the breakup of Yugoslavia where the Slovenian soldiers were ordered to fire upon the citizens. Being a small place, the soldiers rightly thought their own families are likely in that crowd, laid down their arms and walked. Refusal to kill ones neighbours was a reason Beijing had to bring in outside troops to put down Tiananmen Square, the local troops refused. The 62,000 Belarussian regular army may be willing to shoot their own people, but the 400,000 strong reserve will likely not.
 
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Thumpalumpacus said:
If this happens, Putin will soon have another pot boiling on the stove, at a time when his forces are stretched thin. This could perhaps have broad ripples, if indeed it comes to pass.



Not to mention that Belarusian troops may be unwilling to fire upon their own citizens. That sort of circumstance led to the overthrow of the Tsar in 1917, recall.
Click to expand...
Interesting times ahead
 
GTX said:
Interesting times ahead
Click to expand...

Indeed. Especially with Prigozhin being suspected -- rightfully, in my opinion -- of using the battle in Bakhmut to establish his broader political credibility, and the moneyed class pushing back, not only may the Russian army find itself overstretched by difficulties in Belarus, it may be seeing internecine conflict on the home front.

Even if it doesn't erupt into civil war, the multiple stresses will probably magnify the difficulties Russian troops on the frontline have in prosecuting their war aims.
 
Glider said:
Putin. He want all of the original Russia back, and Belarus was part of it. So logic says that Putin will replace him, with a suitable figurehead of course.
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If reports of Russian troops being redeployed from Belarus to Luhansk are true, I wonder if Russia will have the local forces required to make such a play stick, given the Belarusian opposition?

Granted, it could still be a walkover; but it could also represent a widening of Russian Army responsibilities at a time when they already seem to be juggling forces.

All this assumes, of course, that reports of Lukashenko's health being poor are in fact accurate.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
If reports of Russian troops being redeployed from Belarus to Luhansk are true, I wonder if Russia will have the local forces required to make such a play stick, given the Belarusian opposition? Granted, it could still be a walkover; but it could also represent a widening of Russian Army responsibilities at a time when they already seem to be juggling forces.
Click to expand...
There are an estimated 600,000 firearms in civilian hands in Belarus. And pretty much every adult male (out of a total population of 9.4 million) not currently in the army or air force is a veteran of conscripted military service. And the women will fight too, so the Russians will be facing at least 4 million Belarusian adults. Upon a Russian invasion, if Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's government in exile and the Belarusian resistance asks for foreign arms, they'll quickly receive them. A Russian invasion of Belarus will not be a walkover. Upon which the Moldovans, Chechens and Georgians will rise up.
 
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