"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (13 Viewers)

[Denniss]

I believe the agreemen was not to use western weapons vs russian soil but they are free to do what they want with their own equipment.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I believe the agreemen was not to use western weapons vs russian soil but they are free to do what they want with their own equipment.

I don't think so. Imagine tomorrow, 10,000 Ukrainian regulars with T-72s, BMPs, Nonas and Akatsiyas attack from Kharkiv oblast intent on destroying and/or occupying Belgorod. The Ukrainians make sure not to use any western weapons. Do you really think that would make a difference in how the West reacts?

That very day Putin would put every SSBM and land/air launched nuclear missile unit on high alert, announcing that the fate of the world is now in the West's hands. Within days everyone in the West would be demanding Ukraine withdraw from Russia, followed by demands from many until-now supporting nations that Ukraine begin negotiations with Russia. The day Ukraine invades Russia is the day the West's taps are turned off.

 

[Frog]

There is a lot of hypocrisy to warn a sovereign country that was subject to an infamous invasion from sending a counter attack even of limited pattern against the enemy's territory.
By the way, this is exactly a model of assymetric (ass-symetric) warfare so much vaunted by the Russians. Of course, the taste is not the same when you are on the wrong side.

 

[michaelmaltby]

".... The day Ukraine invades Russia is the day the West's taps are turned off."

Russian sovereign "territory" ... not Russian occupied territory, IMO.

 

[Admiral Beez]

There is a lot of hypocrisy to warn a sovereign country that was subject to an infamous invasion from sending a counter attack even of limited pattern against the enemy's territory.

Agreed. But Ukraine is fine and indeed expected by the West to counterattack into Russian-held Ukrainian territory. Just don't cross into Russia proper, and maybe reconsider supporting/harbouring proxy forces that want to. The Free Russia Legion would be better put to supporting Ukraine's Spring offensive into the Russian-held parts of the Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson oblasts.

".... The day Ukraine invades Russia is the day the West's taps are turned off." Russian sovereign "territory" ... not Russian occupied territory, IMO.

Correct.

I expect many in the West are now wondering when the vaulted Spring offensive will start, considering that in three weeks Spring is over.

 

[machine shop tom]

".... The day Ukraine invades Russia is the day the West's taps are turned off."

Russian sovereign "territory" ... not Russian occupied territory, IMO.

I expect Putin to get VERY irate when Ukraine troops eventually cross into HIS Crimea.

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Belgorod oblast is russian sovereing territory.

I believe the agreemen was not to use western weapons vs russian soil but they are free to do what they want with their own equipment.

Too late:

A M1224 MaxxPro MRAP captured in russian territory:


View: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1660729246581510147?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1660729246581510147%7Ctwgr%5Eddb740995a5f88fe366dddcf42f09575ac5d388c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fukraine-situation-report-attack-inside-russia-continues-with-strikes-on-government-buildings

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Several sources report additional border incursions in Belgorod region.


View: https://twitter.com/warinukraineua/status/1660967662841733120

View: https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1660962245168209921

 

[SaparotRob]

another critic of the russian invasion suffering from the "sudden death syndrome": Pjotr Kutscherenko, a russian deputy minister for education, died on his flight back from Cuba. He "suddenly" fell ill and died. Smells poisonous.

Maybe he had the fish.

 

[GrauGeist]

It appears that there are two distinct Russian paramilitary groups.

The "Freedom Of Russia Legion":

Freedom of Russia Legion - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

and "Russian Volunteer Corps":

Russian Volunteer Corps - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

From Reuters:


KYIV, May 23 (Reuters) - Russia said on Tuesday it had routed fighters who crossed the border from Ukraine after two days of combat, in what appeared to be one of the biggest incursions of its kind of the 15-month-old war.

There was no immediate independent confirmation that the fighting had ended, although one of two groups claiming to be behind the raid said in a post on social media: "One day we will return to stay."

The two days of fighting had forced Russia to evacuate towns along the Ukrainian border. Russia has blamed Ukraine for the attack, which Kyiv denied. The two groups that claimed responsibility describe themselves as Russian armed dissidents.


The Russian military said it had killed more than 70 "Ukrainian nationalists" and destroyed four armoured vehicles. There was no independent confirmation of those losses.

Russian forces had surrounded the enemy fighters and defeated them with "air strikes, artillery fire and active action by border units", the defence ministry said.

Russia says it crushes cross-border incursion by 'Ukraine nationalists'

Moscow said on Tuesday it had routed and killed scores of "Ukrainian nationalists" who crossed into Russia from Ukraine after two days of combat, in what appeared to be one of the biggest incursions of its kind of the 15-month-old war.

www.reuters.com

 

[SaparotRob]

Been monitoring Ukrainian claims regarding Russian loses, (that of course has to be taken with a grain of salt)

However I noticed that since early May, especially the last 2 weeks the claims are especially leaning towards artillery pieces destroyed. More than any other system.

View attachment 722152

Artillery and truck losses have caught my eye as of late too. Given that good old artillery is Russia's go to weapon, I've always watched that count closely. Truck losses are just so wonderfully crippling to their logistics train.

 

[JDCAVE]

Most of the pilots/crew members killed in the recent ambush/friendly fire, or whatever it was, where less than 30 yo with only a few a litle over 30 yo (judging by the pictures they actually look really young).
However the average age of an employed US air force pilot is 44 years old and very few (only 11%) are less that 30

View attachment 721582

It may be a coincidence, but may also indicate that Russia is running out of experienced pilots.

During WWII it would have been well under 25.

Jim

 

[SaparotRob]

I expect Putin to get VERY irate when Ukraine troops eventually cross into HIS Crimea.

I hope he gets a stroke.

 

[buffnut453]

Ukraine war: Nato watches Russian 'Zombies' in Estonia

In Estonia, pilots respond to Russian jets acting suspiciously at the alliance's northeast border.

www.bbc.com

 

[GrauGeist]

From Reuters:


KYIV, May 23 (Reuters) - Russia said on Tuesday it had routed fighters who crossed the border from Ukraine after two days of combat, in what appeared to be one of the biggest incursions of its kind of the 15-month-old war.

There was no immediate independent confirmation that the fighting had ended, although one of two groups claiming to be behind the raid said in a post on social media: "One day we will return to stay."

The two days of fighting had forced Russia to evacuate towns along the Ukrainian border. Russia has blamed Ukraine for the attack, which Kyiv denied. The two groups that claimed responsibility describe themselves as Russian armed dissidents.


The Russian military said it had killed more than 70 "Ukrainian nationalists" and destroyed four armoured vehicles. There was no independent confirmation of those losses.

Russian forces had surrounded the enemy fighters and defeated them with "air strikes, artillery fire and active action by border units", the defence ministry said.

Russia says it crushes cross-border incursion by 'Ukraine nationalists'

Moscow said on Tuesday it had routed and killed scores of "Ukrainian nationalists" who crossed into Russia from Ukraine after two days of combat, in what appeared to be one of the biggest incursions of its kind of the 15-month-old war.

www.reuters.com

I find it interesting that Russia has such a concentration of much needed artillery and ground troops that far from the front...

 

[RogerdeLluria]

View: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1661020106913374209

 

[RogerdeLluria]

That is the most plausible argument for the border raids I've read so far. Makes all sense.

What the Ukrainians have done with their cross border raid is effectively doubling the amount of frontline the Russians now need to protect (from the green to red line). When this raid is over the Russians will have to assume there may be other raids in the future. Hence the Russians will from now on have to allocate resources to protect their own border.
Ukraine already had to cover for a very long potential front (including Bielorussia) because of the thread of a new Russian invassion. But the Russians just comfortably pulled back across their own border assuming the Ukrainians would not dare to attack there.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Maybe he had the fish.

... or had one left on his porch ...

 

[Zipper730]

I wouldn't send an offensive into a totally destroyed city. As Stalingrad and other examples show, rubble is very often easier to defend and soaks up soldiers.

Snipers in particular -- they can hide in rubble and a man or woman with a steady hand, good eyes, and a good knowledge of physics can do quite a lot of damage.

Yep....go around well-defended positions, cause havoc and mayhem to adversary logistics, force a retreat...and the well-defended position will fall by itself. It's called unhinging a defence...and it worked really well for Ukrainian forces in their offensives last year.

A strategy as old as the days of knights on horses