"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (113 Viewers)

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LONDON (AP) — Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next but is planning to increase its forces significantly along the alliance's eastern flank, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, a senior European intelligence official said.

Speaking in an online briefing with journalists, Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia's foreign intelligence service, also told The Associated Press that Russian President Vladimir Putin currently has no desire to halt the nearly 4-year-old invasion of neighboring Ukraine and thinks he can "outsmart" the United States during talks on how to end the war.

Rosin said Russia's plan involves creating new military units and multiplying the prewar force along its border with NATO by two to three times. But that will be heavily influenced by the outcome of discussions involving Moscow, Washington and Kyiv regarding a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, he said. That's because Russia will need to maintain a "significant portion" of its military inside occupied Ukraine and in Russia to prevent future Ukrainian action, he said.

Currently there are "not enough resources available" for Moscow to launch an attack on NATO, but the Kremlin is concerned about Europe rearming and being able to conduct military action against Russia in the next couple of years, the intelligence chief said.

Russian officials, meanwhile, are playing for time in the talks with Washington and "there is absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the U.S. in a meaningful way," Rosin said.

Rosin spoke to reporters ahead of the publication of Estonia's annual security report Tuesday. He said the information on how the Kremlin views the talks with the U.S. is based on intelligence that NATO member Estonia gathered from "Russian internal discussions." He did not elaborate on how the information was obtained but said the discussions showed that Russian officials believe Washington remains Moscow's "main enemy."


 
LONDON (AP) — Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next but is planning to increase its forces significantly along the alliance's eastern flank, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, a senior European intelligence official said.

Speaking in an online briefing with journalists, Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia's foreign intelligence service, also told The Associated Press that Russian President Vladimir Putin currently has no desire to halt the nearly 4-year-old invasion of neighboring Ukraine and thinks he can "outsmart" the United States during talks on how to end the war.

Rosin said Russia's plan involves creating new military units and multiplying the prewar force along its border with NATO by two to three times. But that will be heavily influenced by the outcome of discussions involving Moscow, Washington and Kyiv regarding a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, he said. That's because Russia will need to maintain a "significant portion" of its military inside occupied Ukraine and in Russia to prevent future Ukrainian action, he said.

Currently there are "not enough resources available" for Moscow to launch an attack on NATO, but the Kremlin is concerned about Europe rearming and being able to conduct military action against Russia in the next couple of years, the intelligence chief said.

Russian officials, meanwhile, are playing for time in the talks with Washington and "there is absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the U.S. in a meaningful way," Rosin said.

Rosin spoke to reporters ahead of the publication of Estonia's annual security report Tuesday. He said the information on how the Kremlin views the talks with the U.S. is based on intelligence that NATO member Estonia gathered from "Russian internal discussions." He did not elaborate on how the information was obtained but said the discussions showed that Russian officials believe Washington remains Moscow's "main enemy."


Estonian intelligence proved to be well-informed and sober. However, when I hear about "not enough resources available", I recall the year 2021 experts' opinion about Russia's lack of readiness to invade Ukraine because of not enough troops near the border, etc.
 
Estonian intelligence proved to be well-informed and sober. However, when I hear about "not enough resources available", I recall the year 2021 experts' opinion about Russia's lack of readiness to invade Ukraine because of not enough troops near the border, etc.

I hear you, intel estimates often go awry, but I think in this instance the assessment of lacking resources is probably closer than the 2021 estimate.
 

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