"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (121 Viewers)

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I believe that Russia's aspirations are beyond their abilities even within a few years.

Ukraine has bled off their manpower to the point that Russia has been hollowing their units across the motherland, such as pulling Naval aviation and Airforce ground crews from the east coast to bolster their front lines. At some point, Putin is going to have to pull from the large metro areas, which will irritate the citizenry even further.

Russia's armor replenishment is woefully behind and the vaunted Armata is not ready for deployment. Their Airforce is also sadly lacking.

It also seems to me, that Russia's aims to strike Latvia, Lithuania amd Estonia is not taking into consideration that Sweden and the FAFO Grandmaster Finland is just across the way.

Even at current standing among eastern European nations, their combined manpower and equipment (plus training), could literally be the end of Russia as we know it.
 
I believe that Russia's aspirations are beyond their abilities even within a few years.

Ukraine has bled off their manpower to the point that Russia has been hollowing their units across the motherland, such as pulling Naval aviation and Airforce ground crews from the east coast to bolster their front lines. At some point, Putin is going to have to pull from the large metro areas, which will irritate the citizenry even further.

Russia's armor replenishment is woefully behind and the vaunted Armata is not ready for deployment. Their Airforce is also sadly lacking.

It also seems to me, that Russia's aims to strike Latvia, Lithuania amd Estonia is not taking into consideration that Sweden and the FAFO Grandmaster Finland is just across the way.

Even at current standing among eastern European nations, their combined manpower and equipment (plus training), could literally be the end of Russia as we know it.

I don't know that this spells the end of Russia; I'm skeptical about that. But I am sure that this misadventure means that once Russia does manage to extricate itself (and I use that word advisedly) from this quag, it will be essentially unable to project power. It already is, fer chrissakes.
 
I don't know that this spells the end of Russia; I'm skeptical about that. But I am sure that this misadventure means that once Russia does manage to extricate itself (and I use that word advisedly) from this quag, it will be essentially unable to project power. It already is, fer chrissakes.
Russia is currently teetering in financial collapse.
Putin, who is using Hitler's playbook, seems to think that his hollowed military is still capable of world domination, cannot be able to do his bidding.

Hitler still fantasized about a great offensive from his bunker as the 1st Ukrainian Guards (irony?) roamed the streets above during the final days of the third reich.

If Putin attempts an incursion into NATO proper, it would be the 21st century equivalent of crossing the Rubicon.
 
I hear you, intel estimates often go awry, but I think in this instance the assessment of lacking resources is probably closer than the 2021 estimate.
Maybe so.
What worries me is that the perceived lack of resources does not mean the lack of readiness to invade, unfortunately.
The Russian personnel/equipment numbers discussed in the Western press in 2021 (and supported by some Ukrainian sources, for example, by General Budanov in his Nov 2021 interview) were probably true. Those numbers were, if judged by the "normal" logic, not sufficient to occupy Ukraine, even its eastern part, or to destroy Ukrainian defences. But, apparently, the aggressor was guided by another type of logic.
 

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