"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (63 Viewers)

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I'm glad to see Ukraine's counteroffensive, but I was surprised that the move is into the Donbas rather than south into Kherson. The Donbas can be reinforced from all sides, while in Kherson the Russians are against the sea. Maybe this latest offensive is a feint to force Russia to divert forces from Kherson.

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I'm glad to see Ukraine's counteroffensive, but I was surprised that the move is into the Donbas rather than south into Kherson. The Donbas can be reinforced from all sides, while in Kherson the Russians are against the sea. Maybe this latest offensive is a feint to force Russia to divert forces from Kherson.

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Ukraine has been stepping up attacks on Russian air defense systems in Crimea lately.

This makes one wonder what's on the drawing board...

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine...ssian-nebo-u-radar-system-in-occupied-crimea/
 
Ukraine has been stepping up attacks on Russian air defense systems in Crimea lately. This makes one wonder what's on the drawing board...
For a drive into Kherson towards Crimea to be successful we would need to see minefield/obstacle breeching and gap-crossing/creation operations of a scale not seen since the Second World War, if ever. Does Ukraine have the necessary combat engineering kit?

With the Russian navy pushed out of Karkinit Bay, I'd love to see Ukraine pull off a successful simultaneous frontal and amphibious assault in Kherson, liberating the territory between Oleshky and Darivka. But I can only dream.
 
I'm glad to see Ukraine's counteroffensive, but I was surprised that the move is into the Donbas rather than south into Kherson. The Donbas can be reinforced from all sides, while in Kherson the Russians are against the sea. Maybe this latest offensive is a feint to force Russia to divert forces from Kherson.

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Target of opportunity?
 
I notice that Russia is working hard on naval drones after suffering significant losses to Ukraine naval equivalents.

My concern is that I wouldn't bet against Russia using them against merchant ships and then stating that they had nothing to do with it. It closely follows their normal approach to these matters.

That's a depressingly plausible scenario. It's not hard to picture an LNG carrier or something similar going 'Boom' in the approaches to a major western European port.......
 
I notice that Russia is working hard on naval drones after suffering significant losses to Ukraine naval equivalents.

My concern is that I wouldn't bet against Russia using them against merchant ships and then stating that they had nothing to do with it. It closely follows their normal approach to these matters.


The limited range (either fuel itself, or controller systems) of the drones might make deniability harder. The other thing is that carrying them to sea implies launching at sea, and that probably from deck -- which is trackable by satellite.

They could certainly push back in the Baltic against NATO inroads, to be sure.
 
I notice that Russia is working hard on naval drones after suffering significant losses to Ukraine naval equivalents.

My concern is that I wouldn't bet against Russia using them against merchant ships and then stating that they had nothing to do with it. It closely follows their normal approach to these matters.

Good point.
 
I'm deeply disappointed, no nuclear threats!!! :tearsofjoy:

"Russia could deploy its navy to prevent European powers from seizing its vessels"
Upon reading this sentence i couldn't help myself picturing a last heroic dash of the Black Sea Fleet / Baltic Fleet akin to the Russian Fleet in the Battle of Tsushima (1905)
(or the Spanish Navy's 1898 sortie at Santiago de Cuba, though as a Spaniard I don't really like this last example ;))
 
I'm glad to see Ukraine's counteroffensive, but I was surprised that the move is into the Donbas rather than south into Kherson. The Donbas can be reinforced from all sides, while in Kherson the Russians are against the sea. Maybe this latest offensive is a feint to force Russia to divert forces from Kherson.

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If my memory is correct the Donbass is rugged country and if Russia gets total control over it then they have nothing but flat land to cross to attack Kiev. For Ukraine to penetrate deep into Donbass of Russia is granted it by the proposed Trumputin piece plan would be very difficult.
 
I notice that Russia is working hard on naval drones after suffering significant losses to Ukraine naval equivalents.

My concern is that I wouldn't bet against Russia using them against merchant ships and then stating that they had nothing to do with it. It closely follows their normal approach to these matters.


I would love to see the Ukrainians capture one of Russia's shadow fleet, load it with Ammonium nitrate fertiliser and fuel and send it in to St Petersburg. Unfortunately there is no chance of that given the gazillions of CCD cameras and drones watching.
 
That's a depressingly plausible scenario. It's not hard to picture an LNG carrier or something similar going 'Boom' in the approaches to a major western European port.......

But the good news is that if that happened Ukraine would have lots of offers from other countries to fully fund some of their drones to do the same at Ust-Luga (Russia's biggest Baltic port, St Petersburg (their most politically important port), Novorossiysk (biggest Black sea port), and all the other Russian ports that load export cargoes.
 

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