"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (96 Viewers)

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For a drive into Kherson towards Crimea to be successful we would need to see minefield/obstacle breeching and gap-crossing/creation operations of a scale not seen since the Second World War, if ever. Does Ukraine have the necessary combat engineering kit?

With the Russian navy pushed out of Karkinit Bay, I'd love to see Ukraine pull off a successful simultaneous frontal and amphibious assault in Kherson, liberating the territory between Oleshky and Darivka. But I can only dream.
Among other problems in that area, there are two that played a role in 2022 when the Ukrainian army withdrew quickly without digging in: 1. Flat and treeless terrain. 2. Proximity of air bases and missile sites in Crimea. Both factors are still important and are not in favour of Ukraine. At least until there are enough air defence systems to mitigate the air threat.
 
More evidence of Russia's manpower problem:


One note of caution…the narrative about increasing Russian losses isn't matched by the graph they display. The graph isn't very clear but I think the divisions on the x-axis are quarterly time periods. If so, it seems to show decreasing weekly losses since late 2024, with current loss rates among the lowest levels since the war began.

I did like the "loss density" map which clearly shows that poorer, rural populations are carrying the burden of fighting for Russia.
 
 

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