"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (92 Viewers)

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MiTasol said:
RE:
View attachment 890556

Given this means the US suppliers do not give a #$%^& about how many civilians in Ukraine and the Gulf states die because they refuse to scale production I think Ukraine should disassemble a Patriot and start producing low cost analogs ASAP or sooner.
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First, the Atlantic is a lefty political paper, not know for its national defense chops, quoting an unnamed politician who probably knows less. Second, the President's "decision" to license Patriot production to Ukraine appears to fall into the usual category of well thought-out policy proclamations he's so famous for, when faced with repeated demands he knew couldn't be met. I'd be inclined to take both with a large pinch of salt. On the "real worry" issue, Zelenskyy claims UA will have the technical capability to produce such missiles by the end of the year, which implies they don't have it now, and probably aren't capable of improving them in the near term.

As to scaling production, the US Army recently let a $54 bil contract for Patriots, with exactly that in mind:
Last month, the U.S. Army announced it plans to order $53.9 billion worth of new Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) air defense missiles from Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT). That's more money than the entire cost of the rest of the war at last report.

And here's the really surprising thing: At $4 million per missile, simply replacing the 1,500 or so Patriots used so far would cost "only" $6.3 billion. But the military is looking to spend much more than that -- enough to buy perhaps 13,475 missiles. That would replenish all munitions already expended... and add 12,000 more Patriots to the stockpile.

Not all at once, certainly. The Army's contract notes that the $53.9 billion would pay for Patriot production over seven years. Still, this marks a dramatic expansion in Patriot buying, and Patriot production as well, as it implies an annual production rate roughly nine times faster than the current rate.
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Which will be impressive, if and when it happens. (Other sources say the production rate will triple, but give a current rate of 600/yr instead of the 200/yr implied in the article.) In any event, the Russian production of ballistic/tactical high speed missiles is about 100-150 per month, and their version of Shaheds at about 20 times that rate.
Russia Produces 3,000 Geran-4/5 Drones a Month, Ukraine Says
In brief: Russia's defense industry produces around 3,000 Geran-4 and Geran-5 kamikaze drones each month, Ukraine's military intelligence told Militarnyi. Production is centered in Tatarstan, where Russia is also expanding facilities as it increases the use of faster jet-powered drones designed to challenge Ukrainian air defenses.
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My bar napkin calculations suggest that if we diverted all Patriot production to Ukraine, and assume perfect intercept accuracy, we could defeat 1/3 of the ballistic missiles and none of the drones. And I'm no expert on missile technology, but my sense of it is that it's a lot easier to produce offensive weapons than interceptors, so the scaling problems would seem to favor the attackers. Even neglecting the obvious cost issues, constructing a viable civilian missile defense might be an unrealistic expectation.
 
GTX said:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrxtMU585B8
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Freya sounds good but to me depends on too many variables coming together so, to me, new ammo for patriot launchers is a safer bet.

That said, if Freya does come together then the Patriot manufacturers are very likely to find no one outside the US buying their product because not only are they far too expensive but.

More importantly, the supply time and supply reliability of Patriots are both unpredictable with almost certainly none available until the US replaces those used against Shaheds in Iran - and any future American usage.
 
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Retattack said:
First, the Atlantic is a lefty political paper, not know for its national defense chops, quoting an unnamed politician who probably knows less. Second, the President's "decision" to license Patriot production to Ukraine appears to fall into the usual category of well thought-out policy proclamations he's so famous for, when faced with repeated demands he knew couldn't be met. I'd be inclined to take both with a large pinch of salt. On the "real worry" issue, Zelenskyy claims UA will have the technical capability to produce such missiles by the end of the year, which implies they don't have it now, and probably aren't capable of improving them in the near term.

As to scaling production, the US Army recently let a $54 bil contract for Patriots, with exactly that in mind:


Which will be impressive, if and when it happens. (Other sources say the production rate will triple, but give a current rate of 600/yr instead of the 200/yr implied in the article.) In any event, the Russian production of ballistic/tactical high speed missiles is about 100-150 per month, and their version of Shaheds at about 20 times that rate.


My bar napkin calculations suggest that if we diverted all Patriot production to Ukraine, and assume perfect intercept accuracy, we could defeat 1/3 of the ballistic missiles and none of the drones. And I'm no expert on missile technology, but my sense of it is that it's a lot easier to produce offensive weapons than interceptors, so the scaling problems would seem to favor the attackers. Even neglecting the obvious cost issues, constructing a viable civilian missile defense might be an unrealistic expectation.
Click to expand...

The Atlantic is just one of many sites with that story and the US refusal to allow Ukraine to build Patriots is confirmed by official sources.

Even 600 Patriots a year is grossly inadequate given the number used in Iran (over four times that in just four months) so the number available to non US customers will likely be negligible for several years at least.

Freya may be the answer and if so the Patriot will become a US only weapon mainly for cost reasons but also for availability reasons.

Many EU nations will also get Freya when it works as it is built locally thus creating local employment and taxes.

I think the current Freya time line is very optimistic but it will still be available long before the US releases more Patriot missiles to European customers.

Then again Ukraine has a good habit of predicting long and delivering early with notable exception being the Flamingo.
 
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MiTasol said:
Freya sounds good but to me depends on too many variables coming together so, to me, new ammo for patriot launchers is a safer bet.

That said, if Freya does come together then the Patriot manufacturers are very likely to find no one outside the US buying their product because not only are they far too expensive but.

More importantly, the supply time and supply reliability of Patriots are both unpredictable with almost certainly none available until the US replaces those used against Shaheds in Iran - and any future American usage.
Click to expand...
It certainly looks ambitious but I don't think Ukraine has an alternative. New replacement Patriot missiles are simply not available and thanks to their expenditure in Iran, are not going to be available for some time.

I think there are some reasons to be optimistic: -

a) Ukraine doesn't have an alternative and necessity is the mother of invention
b) Ukraine has a good track record of building things no one would have believed possible
c) The core are proven components and the developers are fully supportive. (Remember the UK developing AEW Helicopters in weeks, because there was a need and they reworked existing core components).
d) The potential business is huge.

Personally I would have thought that they might have tried to develop something from the Aster missile. It will do the job and is in production.
Of course its a naval system, but the core components exist and the production lines. An example of this potential in the past was a mobile land version of the Sea Dart which was designed but didn't find a purchaser.
 
Apologies if this has already been reported, but this is a big 'ooof' regarding US 155mm artillery production.

www.propublica.org

Fiasco in the Factory: Taxpayers Funded a $533 Million Artillery Plant That Made Nothing

General Dynamics opened a Texas factory to churn out artillery shells for Ukraine, but the machines kept breaking. Robot arms smashed into things. Hunks of metal crashed to the floor. There was even a real-life dumpster fire.
www.propublica.org www.propublica.org



In summary:
General Dynamics built a new facility in Texas in 2023-2024 promising to produce metal parts for 30,000 rounds of 155mm per month. To do so quickly, they sub-contracted metal forming technology from Repkon, a Turkish industrial firm and defense contractor.

This technology never seemed to have worked out with multiple system failures. As of April, the plant had been at 'stop work' since the start of August 2025.

The DoDW issued a show-cause order in June 2025 basically asking GD why they shouldn't lose the contract give that they've missed every single deadline and are yet to produce a single shell body despite the plant being 'operational' for 18 months. Since then, it appears the facility still hasn't delivered anything useful and negotiations between the Army and GD are ongoing...


Some highlowlights from the DoW Inspector General report:

The DoW increased its capability and capacity to produce 155-mm artillery ammunition but did not reach the 2025 ... goal of 100,000 rounds per month by October 2025. As of March 2026, the Army had increased its monthly production from 14,000 to 36,000 rounds because of expansion and modernization efforts ...

However, at a contractor-owned, contractor-operated facility in Mesquite, Texas, the contractor has been unable to produce any projectile metal parts that meet
contract specifications. The Army planned for the Mesquite Texas facility to produce 30,000 rounds per month.

With only three facilities producing the required projectile metal parts, the DoW will reach only 71,000 rounds per month, or 71 percent of its monthly production capacity goal for 155-mm artillery rounds.
...
According to officials at the Army's Capability Program Executive Ammunition & Energetics (CPE A&E), between February 2022 and September 2025, the Army had invested $4.5 billion in 155-mm artillery ammunition production.
...
The DoW decreased its inventory of 155-mm artillery rounds by a total of over 3.6 million rounds over the last 4 years. According to CPE A&E officials, as of March 2026, the production rate is ... 432,000 rounds per year.
....
As of March 2026, the representatives from the Army and the contractor were negotiating a way ahead for the Mesquite facility. CPE A&E Project Lead Joint Services officials had not issued a determination for the Mesquite facility, and there was no projected date when it will be operational. Furthermore, the Army spent $469 million from December 2022 through December 2025 to establish the Mesquite facility—money that potentially could have been used to address other priorities.
 
GrauGeist said:
Perhaps Ukraine could use several (or more) Sea-Whiz (CIWS) batteries?

Extremely cost effective alternate to missiles and would work on anything that is airborn.
Click to expand...
Not really an option for intercepting ballistic missiles which is where the Patriots are primarily used now.
 
Jabberwocky said:
Apologies if this has already been reported, but this is a big 'ooof' regarding US 155mm artillery production.

www.propublica.org

Fiasco in the Factory: Taxpayers Funded a $533 Million Artillery Plant That Made Nothing

General Dynamics opened a Texas factory to churn out artillery shells for Ukraine, but the machines kept breaking. Robot arms smashed into things. Hunks of metal crashed to the floor. There was even a real-life dumpster fire.
www.propublica.org www.propublica.org



In summary:
General Dynamics built a new facility in Texas in 2023-2024 promising to produce metal parts for 30,000 rounds of 155mm per month. To do so quickly, they sub-contracted metal forming technology from Repkon, a Turkish industrial firm and defense contractor.

This technology never seemed to have worked out with multiple system failures. As of April, the plant had been at 'stop work' since the start of August 2025.

The DoDW issued a show-cause order in June 2025 basically asking GD why they shouldn't lose the contract give that they've missed every single deadline and are yet to produce a single shell body despite the plant being 'operational' for 18 months. Since then, it appears the facility still hasn't delivered anything useful and negotiations between the Army and GD are ongoing...


Some highlowlights from the DoW Inspector General report:

The DoW increased its capability and capacity to produce 155-mm artillery ammunition but did not reach the 2025 ... goal of 100,000 rounds per month by October 2025. As of March 2026, the Army had increased its monthly production from 14,000 to 36,000 rounds because of expansion and modernization efforts ...

However, at a contractor-owned, contractor-operated facility in Mesquite, Texas, the contractor has been unable to produce any projectile metal parts that meet
contract specifications. The Army planned for the Mesquite Texas facility to produce 30,000 rounds per month.

With only three facilities producing the required projectile metal parts, the DoW will reach only 71,000 rounds per month, or 71 percent of its monthly production capacity goal for 155-mm artillery rounds.
...
According to officials at the Army's Capability Program Executive Ammunition & Energetics (CPE A&E), between February 2022 and September 2025, the Army had invested $4.5 billion in 155-mm artillery ammunition production.
...
The DoW decreased its inventory of 155-mm artillery rounds by a total of over 3.6 million rounds over the last 4 years. According to CPE A&E officials, as of March 2026, the production rate is ... 432,000 rounds per year.
....
As of March 2026, the representatives from the Army and the contractor were negotiating a way ahead for the Mesquite facility. CPE A&E Project Lead Joint Services officials had not issued a determination for the Mesquite facility, and there was no projected date when it will be operational. Furthermore, the Army spent $469 million from December 2022 through December 2025 to establish the Mesquite facility—money that potentially could have been used to address other priorities.
Click to expand...
Fortunately Europe across the board has considerably increased its production of 155mm shells. I don't know the figures for Europe but Bae in the UK has increased its production sixteen fold by introducing new technology and building a new plant in Wales. This plan has slipped but this is due to plans to double this production target.

Germany is on track to produce 1.1 million rounds by 2027 as for the other countries I do not know but I cannot see France standing back

Also whilst Ukraine would no doubt like more ammunition we haven't recently heard any complaints re the lack of supply.

Maybe the USA would like to buy some from Europe?
 
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