"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (150 Viewers)

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Admiral Beez said:
Meanwhile Russia must be spending millions to kill a single Ukrainian civilian with a missile strike. That's a very poor ROI and must be unsustainable.
Click to expand...
I think you are right. While exact statistics will not be available until the end of the war, we can attempt a conservative estimate.
The official civilian death toll in July 2026 was 183 killed by long-range strikes (out of a total of 437).
Russian missiles used in long-range strikes: ballistic ~200, cruise and other ~450.
Average missile costs: ballistic $3M, cruise $1M. This is very approximate; I know.
I ignore long-strike UAV costs since there have been too many types of them recently.
So, the lowest estimate for missiles only: $5.7M per civilian person killed.
Yes, those missiles hit not only residential and civilian objects. But again, I didn't add long-range UAV, and there were thousands of them in July 2026.
 
Dimlee said:
newsukraine.rbc.ua

Is Russia ready for peace? Ukraine's deputy intel chief reveals Kremlin's next moves

Read more
newsukraine.rbc.ua newsukraine.rbc.ua
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I certainly dont think that Russia is ready for peace, but might be around April next year.

What makes me say that? Russia is clearly building up to a mobilisation (light) with hundreds of thousands of troops supported by around 50,000 N Korean troops. His money is running out and the damage to his infrastructure is getting critical, General Winter is about to reappear and time isn't on his side. Add to that his manufacturing base is starting to crumble with people being sucked into the Army away from the factories. Also the sounds of dissconsent are getting louder.
My feeling is that we could be getting to the last throw of the dice, double or quits if you like. The thought is that Putin is going for one large push to win the war. If it works then Putin is safe. If it doesn't then he will need a form of peace, as I said before time isn't on his side and its my guess that he will know one way or the other by April.
 
On a totally different situation I am seeing a number of reports that Petrol in Russia is suddenly getting difficult to find for the second time around. During July the situation eased considerably for Russia with a large number of districts easing restrictions. Queues reduced significantly, limits on the amount of fuel also lifted and things were looking good for Putin.
Now for no obvious reason the queues and limits are back again.

What I cannot work out is why? Yes refineries have continued to be hit but the level of intensity is far less than it was.

Any idea's anyone
 
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