American Dam Busters - The legacy continues

Thumpalumpacus said:

Ever think about how less dense air is compared to water?

Ventilation is not hard to trunk, and you can't really ventilate through water, so far as I can see.

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Is that a yes or no, vis a vis cherry bombs?

SaparotRob said:

Is that a yes or no, vis a vis cherry bombs?

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I *may have* seen it done once (or twice...ok, more than once).

On one occasion, we some people stuck a length of fuse into a tin of FFF black powder, lit it and dropped it into a storm drain.
The explosion issued a huge fireball out of the curb opening and lifted a nearby manhole cover several feet in the air.

Scared the sh*t out of us those people and it was never done again.

SaparotRob said:

Is that a yes or no, vis a vis cherry bombs?

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No, we did the M-80 in an old-school metal trash can, though.

But being a former firefighter, I know a thing or two about water and its (lack of) compressibility.

A somewhat similar situation occurred many years back when car/Military vehicle collector, Herb, (he is now deceased due to old age) a WW2 F6F pilot brought home to his garage a WW2 half track in near stock condition. It had been parked at a WW2 aux field & used as tow to pull rookies out of the mud, then left behind.
Herb set about draining the 50 year old gasoline into the adjacent storm drain which led nearly 1/2 mile to a drainage canal near a courthouse annex. At the annex, a worker was cutting grass pushing a mower. He may have been smoking, but something there provided the source. The surface of the water caught fire and the backflash in the covered drains blew covers off in the neighborhoods, much noise but no damage. Herb, an old fireman since his Navy days and civil Volunteer fireman days, of course went to see. He found a number of the officials from the annex berating the grass cutter. By the time I got there to see the "new" half track, things were back to normal with the grass cutter cautioned to be more careful with his gas can. Fortunately, no one wondered how a six gallon can could have held nearly 52 gallons of very old smelly gasoline. Herb's excuse to me later was, he didn't think the old fuel was still flammable because it couldn't remove paint.
The old Halftrack was used in parades and VFW occasions after minor restoration. Remarkable minimal rust damage, as it had many, many coats of O.D. paint.

Taken from the BBC...

Iran has the capacity to start enriching uranium again - for a possible bomb - in "a matter of months", the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog has said.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the US strikes on three Iranian sites last weekend had caused severe but "not total" damage, contradicting Donald Trump's claim that Iran's nuclear facilities were "totally obliterated".

"Frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there," Grossi said on Saturday.
Israel attacked nuclear and military sites in Iran on 13 June, claiming Iran was close to building a nuclear weapon.
The US later joined the strikes, dropping bombs on three of Iran's nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
Since then, the true extent of the damage has been unclear.

On Saturday, Grossi told CBS News, the BBC's US media partner, that Tehran could have "in a matter of months... a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium". He added that Iran still possessed the "industrial and technological capacities... so if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again."

The IAEA is not the first body to suggest that Iran's nuclear abilities could still continue - earlier this week, a leaked preliminary Pentagon assessment found the US strikes probably only set the programme back by months. It is possible, however, that future intelligence reports will include more information showing a different level of damage to the facilities. Trump retorted furiously by declaring that Iran's nuclear sites were "completely destroyed" and accused the media of "an attempt to demean one of the most successful military strikes in history".
For now, Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire.

But Trump has said he would "absolutely" consider bombing Iran again if intelligence found that it could enrich uranium to concerning levels.

I have never seen the military come out with the true capability of a weapon. From bullets on up. With that in mind I would not take at face value the real capability of any US weapon based off wiki, the Pentagon or any other source.

Second, I'm of the opinion that unless you have a regime change all that is being done is kicking the can down the road.

BiffF15 said:

Second, I'm of the opinion that unless you have a regime change all that is being done is kicking the can down the road.

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Agree, but in the case of Iran, to what regime would one change to? I have seen the Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, mentioned as a possibility (along with his Iran National Council group) but I believe that is as smart as when they had hopes to install Ahmed Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress in power as a friendly regime in Iraq following the invasion. They quickly found out that there was no support for such in the country. The same will happen in Iran plus the son will carry the same stigma as his father and be just as hated.

More likely, anyone who may step up will not necessarily be supportive of the US/Israel (and probably the west in general) given what has occurred. If for no other reason they will have to be mindful of the anger within the masses and thus need to play to that lest they lose their own head. The alternative of course is that the US/Israel tries to install another dictator of their own who cracks down harshly on the resistance which will only exacerbate the anger and put us back to where things were in the 1970s under the Shah…with similar, if not worse results.

Also remember that Israel has no desire or ability to send forces to Iran to maintain a peace. They don't really have the forces to maintain peace in the occupied territories which is why they resort to AirPower, containment and the like. Also remember that they are really doing the attacks to continue as a distraction to forestall any moves against Netanyahu within Israel itself (you can't remove him while at war). Moreover, Israel is quite happy to stir up the trouble knowing that the US will (has already?) step in to try to clean up the mess that results or at least shield them. Talk about being played…

At the end of the day, there is no strong, coordinated Iranian opposition force under a legitimate leader/Govt in exile, waiting to step in to assume power and to lead the country/region towards the peaceful 'promised land'. Thus all that these attacks will do is 'stir up the wasp nest'; incite anger and desire for revenge; confirm many in the region and around the world's views of the US/Israel as the true villains; and set us all on a path for years of constant attacks etc - a bit like we saw with Iraq in the 1990s. And we know what that led to and how it turned out…

I'm guessing that the keg/scuba tank thing containing the uranium is bombproof, even for large values of bomb. So it's just a matter of digging them out again. Admittedly, if the underground spaces are completely collapsed that might be difficult. But I doubt that 300' of reinforced concrete is completely collapsed.

Regarding the ventilation ducts... I have visited a couple of WW2 era fortifications. The entrance tunnels were like a T, where you entered across the top of the T and then turned. The idea was that a blast would go to the far end of T crossbar and reflect back outside without (much?) going down around the corner to the actual facility. There were 2 or 3 of these T junctions on the way in. I expect that exactly the same WW2 engineering would apply to ventilation ducts in Iran. So shooting a bomb into a ventilation duct wouldn't get it into the facility itself, just to the far end of the T, although that would certainly be closer than at the surface. How much closer? Who knows? It could be halfway or 3/4, but equally it could be 3ft.

So imho "obliterated" without knowing the engineering of the duct is just wishful thinking.

frankv said:

I'm guessing that the keg/scuba tank thing containing the uranium is bombproof, even for large values of bomb. So it's just a matter of digging them out again. Admittedly, if the underground spaces are completely collapsed that might be difficult. But I doubt that 300' of reinforced concrete is completely collapsed.

Regarding the ventilation ducts... I have visited a couple of WW2 era fortifications. The entrance tunnels were like a T, where you entered across the top of the T and then turned. The idea was that a blast would go to the far end of T crossbar and reflect back outside without (much?) going down around the corner to the actual facility. There were 2 or 3 of these T junctions on the way in. I expect that exactly the same WW2 engineering would apply to ventilation ducts in Iran. So shooting a bomb into a ventilation duct wouldn't get it into the facility itself, just to the far end of the T, although that would certainly be closer than at the surface. How much closer? Who knows? It could be halfway or 3/4, but equally it could be 3ft.

So imho "obliterated" without knowing the engineering of the duct is just wishful thinking.

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Out of curiosity, in WWII, did they have 30,000 pound precision guided bombs?

GrauGeist said:

Out of curiosity, in WWII, did they have 30,000 pound precision guided bombs?

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Out of curiosity, does precision guidance allow shock-waves from bombs to navigate angles?

We talk all the time here about straight exhausts adding horsepower to aircraft engines by dint of there not being many angles or crooks in the exhaust. Crooked exhaust pipes slow down the exhaust and keep it from thrusting more.

Do you not realize that that exact same principle applies here?

Ok, I get it - the U.S. is important and does not have the ability to beat it's way out of a paper bag.

All of the American military equipment is sub-par and relies on positive media spin.

But in the real world, a single 30,000 pound, precision guided bomb with over 5,000 pounds of high explosive material, plowing into a confined ventilation shaft at terminal velocity will do a f**k-ton of damage as the compression shockwave tries to find a way out.

A "T" or a "Y" or any clever geometric design is no going to alleviate that shockwave.

A simple glance at the after-strike photos at the ventilation shaft entry photos show a clear debris field to the right of center that is unmistakable that sh*t happened on a major scale.

GrauGeist said:

But in the real world, a single 30,000 pound, precision guided bomb with over 5,000 pounds of high explosive material, plowing into a confined ventilation shaft at terminal velocity will do a f**k-ton of damage as the compression shockwave tries to find a way out.

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Agreed, and multiply that by 14. Two on one target and twelve on another that seems to have had 3 aimpoints, so 2-4 "Magnum" Grand Slams hitting each of their closely positioned aimpoints in rapid succession. All hits, all dropped from the optimum altitude to create the maximum effect.

Taking nothing away from 9 and 617 Squadrons who operated at the absolute height of WW2 technology, but many of their missions weren't as successful as hoped. Due to weather, smoke, mechanics and pesky Germans, many Tallboys and Grand Slams weren't dropped, were dropped at much lower altitudes than desired or missed their targets, but the few that hit and even the near misses (What's a near miss with a 6 or 12 ton bomb?) proved very effective.

So, back to today. If 30 or 180 tons of precision guided ordnance designed to penetrate reinforced structures, all hit their aimpoints but fail to achieve mission success, where are we?

The 509th may need to add another mushroom cloud to their shoulder patches.

GrauGeist said:

Ok, I get it - the U.S. is important and does not have the ability to beat it's way out of a paper bag.

All of the American military equipment is sub-par and relies on positive media spin.

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I'll take "what is a strawman for a True Daily Double, Alex".

GrauGeist said:

But in the real world, a single 30,000 pound, precision guided bomb with over 5,000 pounds of high explosive material, plowing into a confined ventilation shaft at terminal velocity will do a f**k-ton of damage as the compression shockwave tries to find a way out.

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There's also a way to design, you know, the most important infrastructure in your country, where you're surrounded by enemies, to steer that around.

GrauGeist said:

A "T" or a "Y" or any clever geometric design is no going to alleviate that shockwave.

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It can. And consider that the Iranians have had years and years to design and dig these.

GrauGeist said:

A simple glance at the after-strike photos at the ventilation shaft entry photos show a clear debris field to the right of center that is unmistakable that sh*t happened on a major scale.

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Sure. But assuming that the fissile material was still in there at all -- and there's no evidence either way -- you're still looking at surface photos, not what happened underground.

Hey, you can believe what you want. But this idea of "One Bomb to Kill Them All", nah, you'll need to bring evidence, beyond some Presidential claim that's clearly self-serving. Got anything showing what went on underground?

I think Iran should allow members of our Forum to have a quick look about. In the interests of science, of course.
We could share the proceeds of the "I went to the Fordo facility and all I got was this lousy T-shirt" sales.

We do have an authorized member on site, sort of.

SaparotRob said:

We do have an authorized member on site, sort of.

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Speaking of which, has anybody heard from?

Iran started a crackdown on religious minorities last August and have ramped up that effort the past week or so.

I recall that his personal convictions did not align with the government's and I truly and sincerely hope that his absence is more due to the government blocking outside internet than being caught up in his government's bullshit.

GrauGeist , after reading this interview with a Los Alamos scientist, I may have to rethink some of my above-expressed opinions about the impact of the MOPs on the Iranian facilities.

It still remains to be seen if the fissile material was even present at the time of the strikes, though, and I still think the "completely and totally obliterated" claim is not supportable.

Here is a very detailed and informative breakdown of the attacks against the Iranian Nuclear facilities:

Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security

GrauGeist said:

Here is a very detailed and informative breakdown of the attacks against the Iranian Nuclear facilities:

Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security

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My only caveat to this report is that it has been filed by an organisation that *isn't* international.

Its based in Washington and all its principal staff are American. It is funded by a mix of public (Ie US based) and un-named private donations. I don't see international investment or integration.

Sorry to be cynical, and whether subsequent events bear out the above report or not, recent behaviours surely cast some (truly) international shade on the objectivity of this kind of institution? We (ie those outside) see US based organisations now obviously and overtly required to toe the official government line, or be discredited, defunded or aggressively publicly criticised...