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News over here says that per the airline it was a bird strike.
That's some peculiar bird strike marks in the above picture..
The apparent shrapnel holes seem to have entered at right angles to the surface while engine parts would have elongated entry holes as do gun damage.
It doesn't look like a shootdown to me. There's no debris showing nor sign of fire, and the undercarriage can be seen extending, as well as the plane leveling out before impact -- that implies hydraulics are still working. The plane looks fairly intact, and though shrapnel can kill a jetliner, there's no telltale fluid or other trail.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtOCDqHGXks&t=59s
The shoot down occurred further away. The pilot turned the plane around and diverted to an airport. Therefore you won't have a debris trail. You won't necessarily see fire. Most SAMs are proximity fuses. The missile explodes before contact and shrapnel is blown into the aircraft.
How do you know there was no hydraulic loss at a previous point.
Remember the emergency occurred before this point. This is the airport the pilot diverted to.
Also…
Survivors described "heard an explosion followed by what looked like shrapnel hitting the plane, and entering the fuselage."
Also ask yourself…
What would cause shrapnel damage like that to the vertical tail surface?
Yeah, I know this stuff.
At 00:13 in the video I posted, you can see the gear extending.
That is the most important evidence thus far.
Shrapnel.