Ive attached an article relating to a similar situation as that being hypothesized about here, the convoy battle for Operation Pedestal
http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/~/media/Files/Navy-PDFs/News-and-Events/Special Events/20120801 Operation Pedestal Aug 42.pdf
In an after action study carried out by the naval staff about 6 months after thr battle, the following conclusions were drawn....
"
Operation "Pedestal" provides an example of the effectiveness of the fighter protection so provided, and also of the disastrous results accruing from lack of it and the break up of the convoy formation. The very heavy air attacks from Sardinia by over 100 escorted bombers throughout daylight hours of 12 August, when the convoy was protected by a total of 60 carrier-borne fighters, only succeeded in damaging one merchant ships and two of the escorting ships. The [FAA] fighters attacking at a distance from the convoy were usually able to break up the enemy formations sufficiently for the A/A guns of escort and convoy to be able to deal with those that got through".
50 a/c were available for CAP after the loss of the Eagle. Most of these were Sea Hurricanes, but quite a few were Fulmars and the 6 gun version of the Martlet. seven of the CAP were shot down by the enemy, and a further 6 were written off in landing accidents. Due to the relatively short endurance of the allied fighters, an average of only 13 fighters were available at any time during the day. The CAP was assisted by radar enabling interceptions to be made as far out as 30 miles. most importantly the radar assisted the CAP in coordination and teamwork.
Axis losses were exceedingly heavy, more than 30 aircraft, out of more than 140 bombers and fighters thrown at the convoy that day were lost outright, and a further 30 (approximately) forced to turn back damaged. Some of the more determined aircrews did penetrate the convoy , but none of the attacks were well co-ordinated after having run the gauntlet of the CAP and heavy AA defences.
There would be a number of differences in this hypothetical combat. There is little chance of the being "jumped" though the lack of radar , is a problem. This number of 96 is in no way comparable to the airstrikes made by the USN carriers . At high altitude, a concentrated air group of that size will be visible to the outrider pickets of the advance force for 20miles+. At an approach speed of 200mph , the airborne CAP will have about 6 mins to position themselves. Typically, the Japanese positioned their CAP at around 10000 feet . If the US fighter sweep is higher, it really could not be expected to be much higher than 20000, the IJN CAP will have to climb at a rate of a bout 2000 ft per min. I think they can do that easily.
In addition the fighters on the deck could be scrambled and should be able to reach about 5000 feet before the strike aircraft are in position. IJNs might be available for CAP because we cant be certain as to when this hypothetical strike might occur, plus we cant be certain about the total numbers of fighters that the Japanese might commit. Taking a middle ground, we could assume no draw downs from the NEI or the Sth pacific, but we probably should assume the presence of the two Aleutians carriers boosted by a few in the CAGs because losses due to weather in the approach would be less. I estimate on that the IJN carriers would have available about 106-110 Zekes, Historically half were allocated to the attacks on the atoll, whilst half were allocated to fleet defence. assuming the same proportions, we should have 53- 55 for both missions. The much greater endurance of the Zeke relative to the Sea Hurricane means that about 50% of the available CAP can be kept aloft for CAP. That gives the IJN 25-30 immediately available, and probably another 10-20 that Compare this with the lousy 13 available to the RN for Pedestal, of which just 7 or 8 might be in the correct position. how many did those inferior RN fighters bring down again ......oh yes, it was 30 with another 30 forced back damaged. These RN fighters were outperformed by many of the Axis opponents.....Me 109s, Re2001, Mc202s, Ju88s, versus Fulmars. Zekes against P-36s and clapped out F4Fs? You gotta be sh*tting me