I am beginning to wonder if Mother Nature is always at fault.
Carr Fire - Black Thursday 26 July 2018
- Thread starter GrauGeist
- Start date
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mikewint
Captain
A lot of variables converged to create a sweeping conflagration like the Carr Fire, but in short:
It's hot.
It's dry.
It's windy.
Just about everything on the ground is flammable.
A red-flag warning was already in effect at the start of the fire, meaning the conditions for a blaze were ripe.
Despite some rainfall in the spring, the brush and forests around Redding dried out in the triple-digit temperatures this summer, turning grasses and trees into tinder.
Like most wildfires, this one ignited due to human activity. Officials report that a "mechanical failure of a vehicle" was the cause of the fire and the windy conditions soon fanned the flames.
Average temperatures are rising, and the state of California is increasingly cycling between periods of severe rainfall and extreme drought. The conditions in recent years have led to a massive tree die-off, and scientists expect more woodlands to dry out across the West, contributing to larger, more destructive fires.
It's hot.
It's dry.
It's windy.
Just about everything on the ground is flammable.
A red-flag warning was already in effect at the start of the fire, meaning the conditions for a blaze were ripe.
Despite some rainfall in the spring, the brush and forests around Redding dried out in the triple-digit temperatures this summer, turning grasses and trees into tinder.
Like most wildfires, this one ignited due to human activity. Officials report that a "mechanical failure of a vehicle" was the cause of the fire and the windy conditions soon fanned the flames.
Average temperatures are rising, and the state of California is increasingly cycling between periods of severe rainfall and extreme drought. The conditions in recent years have led to a massive tree die-off, and scientists expect more woodlands to dry out across the West, contributing to larger, more destructive fires.
fubar57
General
at6
1st Sergeant
Where did this come from?
- Thread starter
- #25
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
Our forests are not a victim of climate, they have always burned.
What's different now, is that the forests cannot be managed due to environmentalist litigation. So now the forests are overgrown year by year, escelating the violence of fires.
One of the reasons the Carr was so explosive, is because the fallen timber from the firestorms ten years ago (and years bfeore that), were still there, adding to the ground fuels. The Forest Service, BLM and the Park Service are not allowed to clear dead timber or thin out the clusters of young trees growing amongst the mature trees, so when a fire breaks out, it plows through the brush and gains momentum via the deadfall. From there it jumps to the young trees while attaining temperatures of convection and jumps into the crown of the mature trees, which in turn drives the fire temps even higher - now you have a firestorm and destruction is total, from the sterilized soil to the mature trees, who would normally be able to resist a normal fire.
If we look at the record of catastrophic fires, we'll see that they have been gaining intensity and frequency from the 1980's onward. It takes roughly ten years for a forest system to react to change (fire, logging, etc.) and this ten year marker relates exactly to the late 70's when the environmental injunctions and moratoreums went into effect.
What's different now, is that the forests cannot be managed due to environmentalist litigation. So now the forests are overgrown year by year, escelating the violence of fires.
One of the reasons the Carr was so explosive, is because the fallen timber from the firestorms ten years ago (and years bfeore that), were still there, adding to the ground fuels. The Forest Service, BLM and the Park Service are not allowed to clear dead timber or thin out the clusters of young trees growing amongst the mature trees, so when a fire breaks out, it plows through the brush and gains momentum via the deadfall. From there it jumps to the young trees while attaining temperatures of convection and jumps into the crown of the mature trees, which in turn drives the fire temps even higher - now you have a firestorm and destruction is total, from the sterilized soil to the mature trees, who would normally be able to resist a normal fire.
If we look at the record of catastrophic fires, we'll see that they have been gaining intensity and frequency from the 1980's onward. It takes roughly ten years for a forest system to react to change (fire, logging, etc.) and this ten year marker relates exactly to the late 70's when the environmental injunctions and moratoreums went into effect.
mikewint
Captain
With some qualification. The NUMBER of fire has actually been decreasing but their INTENSITY has been increasing.
Climate is a tough thing to get a handle on as it is a LONG term factor. As posted Calif has experienced wet years and dry years,e.g.:
2000 N; 2001 N+; 2002 Dry; 2003 N; 2004 Dry; 2005 Very Wet; 2006 N+; 2007 Very Dry; 2008 N; 2009 Dry; 2010 - 11 N+; 2012-14 Very Dry; 2015 N+; 2016 Above Normal. BUT, BUT the rainfall is NOT spread out but tend to fall during the wet winter months followed by Hot, Dry, Windy summers. So the rains encourage the growth of quick growing plants and shrubs which die off in the dry conditions providing all that undergrowth fuel. Just sitting there waiting for a lightning bolt or idiot human
While the Santa Ana winds have always been around they never had extensive powerline systems to blow down in the past.
So as I said earlier a very complex problem exacerbated by all the people wanting to live there
Possibly the largest fire in California was the 1889 Santiago Canyon Fire which occurred in an unexplored wilderness area. From 400,000 to 500,000 acres burned before the fire ran out of fuel
The largest California fires in recorded history (+1932):
1. Menocino Complex Fire (2018) – 404,532 acres so far with 1 KIF – Triple digit temps and low humidity
2. Thomas Fire (2017) – 273,400 acres – 2 KIF – Unknown cause
3. Cedar Fire (2003) – 273,246 acres – 15 KIF – Lost hunter started a signal fire
4. Rush Fire (2012) – 315,000 acres (CA & NV) – Lightni5. Rim Fire (2013) – 257,314 acres – Campfire
6. Zaca (2007) – 240,207 acres – Sparks from welding a waterpipe
7. Carr Fire (2018) – 229,651 acres – 8 KIF – Sparks from a car wheel rim hitting pavement
8. Matilija Fire (1932) – 220,000 acres – Lightning
9. Witch Creek Fire (2007) – 197,000 acres – 2 KIF – Santa Ana winds down a powerline
10. Kiamath Theatre Complex (2008) – 192,000 acres – 2 KIF – Lightning
11. Marble Cone Fire (1977) – 178,000 acres – Lightning
12. Laguna Fire (1970) – 175,000 acres – 8 KIF – Santa Ana winds down powerline
13. Basin Complex (2008) – 162,000 acres – Lightning
14. Day Fire (2006) – 162,000 acres – Illegal debris burn
15. Station Fire (2009) – 160,000 acres – 2 KIF – Arson
In terms of sheer destruction:
1. Tubbs Fire (2017) – 36,810 acres – 22 KIF – 5643 structures $1.2 billion in damages – High winds
downed multiple powerlines in 8 counties
2. Oakland Firestorm/Tunnel Fire (1991) – 1600 acres – 25 KIF - 2843 homes, 437 apartment/condos –
$1.5 billion in damages – High winds (65mph) reignited a 5 acre grass fire
Deadly California Fires (other than the two above)
1. Griffith Park Fire (1933) – 47 acres – 29 (52) civilian firefighters KIF 150 injured – brush fire spread due
to inadequate firefighting and improperly set backfires
Dumbass Fires:
1. Inaja Fire (1956) – 44,000 acres – 11 KIF – A 16YO Indian boy threw a lit match into dry grass "to see if
it would burn"
Why is this in place?
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Of course, the problem is that people will focus for simple solutions to complicated problems, and politicians will lead them there rather than address the real issues
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As for climate issues, I'm curious if this is caused by routine change in the climate (i.e. not caused by mankind), climate change caused by mankind in terms of pollution and stuff, or something like weather modification (something with the US, PRC, and Russia all possess), ridiculous as it sounds.
- Thread starter
- #31
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
In the 70's, the environmentalist movement gained momentum and developed strong lobbies to halt the timber industry.
They also targeted public agencies like the US Forest Service, California Division of Forestry, Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior and so on, preventing them from Timber sales, down timber salvage and even select diseased tree culling. The litigation also targeted forest road management under the auspices of watershed silting/damage and so on.
They created a trunicated layer of court injunctions that overlapped local court decisions with supreme court decisions, state courts with Federal courts and so on. After a while, it was a huge, tangled mess that tied the hands of everybody involved with forestry.
Here's a solid example of what a mess it is: my Mom owns 48+ acres of forest land and in order for her to have any timber sales, she has to get a permit which also entails a "survey" and file an environmental impact report. It's a pain in the arse, but at least she can do this because it's privately owned land unlike any public owned land.
And as an aside, several conifer species in California will not propegate unless the heat of a fire opens their cones, like the Giant Sequioa, so fire is an instrumental part of a forest's health, just not firestorms, which strip the land bare and sterilize the soils.
A healthy forest will "flash off" quickly, as limited fuels on the forest floor means the fire remains on the forest floor and moves along quickly. This is the type of fire that returns nutrients to the forest floor, cleans the "duff" and opens the cones, all just in time for the fall rains. This is also the type of forest that you can see clearly in for roughly 50 yards or more. Sunlight will filter in, providing plants like ferns, fungi and such the needed light.
An unhealthy forest you cannot see 20 feet ahead of you, no sunlight is reaching the floor slowing the needed decay process, the forest floor is crowded with explosive overburden which allows the fire to gain in intensity, jumping from the fuels on the forest floor, into the crowded "pecker poles" (young trees and saplings), which then jump into the crown of the mature trees. At this point, convection occurs from the high temps, sucking the fresh, cooler air in from the surrounding area, which in turn escelates the fire temps, now the fire is nearly hot enough to melt copper and the hot air column is rising into a pyrocumulus - and now you have a virtually unstoppable fire storm.
Like a pendulum, it went from one end of the extreme (chopping down everything in sight with reckless abandon to not cutting down anything even when a fire hazard presents).GrauGeist said:
Interesting
So a lot of people you believe are ignorant as to what's going on?
- Thread starter
- #33
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
There's several camps on this issue.
The biologists, foresters and related people have been trying to dislodge the injunctions for years and have been warning about the growing fire threat for about as long.
The Environmentalists and their supporters have been claiming that the Biologists, Foresters and related people are just trying to get back in and "rape" the wilderness and won't back down.
There's also a variety of people, who the environmentalists appeal to for support, that believe the increase in explosive fires are caused by: global warming (AKA climate change), geo-engineering, any current president who's party starts with an R (keeping in mind to avoid politics, here), the UN in conjunction with FEMA, The UN by itself, FEMA by itself and on and on and on. All the environmentalists have to do, to appeal to this crowd, is simply spin the attempts at forest management into a conspiracy amd these people flock to their cause like moths to a porchlight.
Meanwhile, the firestorms strip the land bare, killing countless animals (including endangered species) and costs literally billions of dollars in the process and end the end, destroying the very thing they supposedly want to protect.
mikewint
Captain
We humans have a Walt Disney idea of how a forest is supposed to look and behave. We then try to force Nature to behave according to our preconceived notions and then stand in amazement when it doesn't and we're constantly battling it.
The Calif forests were here long before 39.5 million humans decided to live there and were doing just fine in their own Nature driven way. Ebbing and expanding with the kind and type of growth determined by the area's climate.
Then more and more of us start arriving and in order to have space we move into areas really not suited to large (for the area) populations. These voters and tax-payers want Nature to behave and demand that the politicos make it so.
The semi-arid San Fernando Valley is a perfect example. L.A. was a sleepy little city of 9,000 or so easily supported by the problematical rainfall. Water was the limiting factor and the Owens Valley (233 mi away) had lots of it. Enter William Mulholland and the aqueduct. Mostly by deceit and greed Mulholland acquired more and more of the water rights. The Owens river and lake began to dry up as L.A. diverted more and more water. Eventually the economy of the Owens collapsed and L.A. took all the water. In 1970 L.A. completed a second aqueduct and also began pumping the valley's ground water. The valley is essentially now a desert and the former lake an alkali flat with large alkali dust storms.
You can see a similar scene in Nevada where over 633,000 people decided to live in the middle of a desert. Unfortunately many residents of Las Vegas insist on grass lawns, deciduous shade trees and evaporative patio coolers. Add to all of that 40 million tourists a year. The result, Lake Mead was last full in 1983 and has fallen to 40% of its capacity. Mead is somewhere around 1078ft MSL and Hoover Dam can operate down to 950ft MSL . In 2015 an underground tunnel at 850ft MSL was constructed to ensure that Las Vegas would continue to receive water.
The Calif forests were here long before 39.5 million humans decided to live there and were doing just fine in their own Nature driven way. Ebbing and expanding with the kind and type of growth determined by the area's climate.
Then more and more of us start arriving and in order to have space we move into areas really not suited to large (for the area) populations. These voters and tax-payers want Nature to behave and demand that the politicos make it so.
The semi-arid San Fernando Valley is a perfect example. L.A. was a sleepy little city of 9,000 or so easily supported by the problematical rainfall. Water was the limiting factor and the Owens Valley (233 mi away) had lots of it. Enter William Mulholland and the aqueduct. Mostly by deceit and greed Mulholland acquired more and more of the water rights. The Owens river and lake began to dry up as L.A. diverted more and more water. Eventually the economy of the Owens collapsed and L.A. took all the water. In 1970 L.A. completed a second aqueduct and also began pumping the valley's ground water. The valley is essentially now a desert and the former lake an alkali flat with large alkali dust storms.
You can see a similar scene in Nevada where over 633,000 people decided to live in the middle of a desert. Unfortunately many residents of Las Vegas insist on grass lawns, deciduous shade trees and evaporative patio coolers. Add to all of that 40 million tourists a year. The result, Lake Mead was last full in 1983 and has fallen to 40% of its capacity. Mead is somewhere around 1078ft MSL and Hoover Dam can operate down to 950ft MSL . In 2015 an underground tunnel at 850ft MSL was constructed to ensure that Las Vegas would continue to receive water.
Can you make that into a meme?
- Thread starter
- #37
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
I probably could, but there's still too much for us here in Redding to process. We've all been affected by it.
On Black Thursday, as the fire roared into the Goldrush era town of Shasta shortly before attacking Redding, a grandfather received a call from his wife that the fire was already at their house. He had gone to the store to get some supplies, but the fire had changed course and gained momentum far faster than anyone expected, so he tried to rush home, but the First Responders wouldn't let him through, as the fire was beyond stopping.
He stayed on the phone, telling his grandchildren he's on his way, that he'll be there soon. The grandmother covered the children in wet blankets and they hunkered down in the bathroom and he continued to encourage them as firemen, policemen and neighbors at the roadblock surrounded the Grandfather in a ring of prayer and support. His wife's phone eventually disconnected, he's not shared the last moments of the conversation.
The two grandchildren that perished were my childhood bestfriend's nephew and niece.
The fireman that perished, was desperately trying to get people evacuated as the firestorm was bearing down on Redding. He had just finished rescuing two people when the F3 fire tornado overtook him while nearby, a caterpillar operator was trying to outrun the tornado but his Cat was simply not fast enough and he and his machine were consumed. Not long after that, a man who had been at home recovering from heart surgery perished in the fire tornado, as no one was able to get to his house to help evacuate him.
Scores of wildlife were caught in the fire and they're still coming across pets that weren't able to be saved. Entire city blocks reduced to ashes. Businesses, goldrush era buildings and landmarks gone forever.
We lost alot that day.
mikewint
Captain
Truly horrible to contemplate even worse to live through
Requiem aeternam dona ei, Domine,
et lux perpetua luceat ei .
Requiescat in pace.
Requiem aeternam dona ei, Domine,
et lux perpetua luceat ei .
Requiescat in pace.
