Conflicting reports/accounts.

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Shortround6

Major General
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Jun 29, 2009
Central Florida Highlands
To go along with the Myths.

While reading "Soviet Combat Aircraft of the Second World War" I ran across two passages that show conflict in reports about aircraft.

1. page 72.. "While the pilots of the 487th Fighter Air Regiment gave the Mig-3 a very low assessment owing to it's poor maneuverability, those of the 519th Fighter Air Regiment put it in first place, considering the Yak-1 too fragile, the Lavochin LaGG-3 too heavy and the I-16 too slow."

Aside from pilots disagreeing I will leave this one alone.

2. Page 109...
"When the Soviet Air Force operations during the advance on the North Caucasian Front in March-April 1943 was analysed, the I-16s survivability in attack missions was twice as high as that of the armoured IL-2, and in air combats the losses per sortie were 1 1/2 times less than those of modern Yak-1s, LaGG-3s, fighters obtained under the Anglo-American Lend-Lease armament and equipment supply agreement. The I-16s high maneuverability and survivability, and it's pilots great experience on the type, were the reasons behind the low loss rate."

Now this report I find interesting in the fact that it makes no reference to damage inflicted on the enemy. If the I-16s only cause 1/3 as much damage to the enemy per 100 sorties which is the more effective? There is also no reference or data on the relative numbers involved. A few dozen I-16s vs hundreds of Yaks and Laggs or the other way around?
 
On 1-16, a decade or a couple ago one of my friends who speaks Russian told the story to me. IIRC according to him Stalin and the top brass of the VVS KA were very impressed by the statistics and were planning to restart I-16 production but when they compared the results achieved they found out that in the end the newer fighters were more cost efficient (if that is the right word in English) even if the newer planes suffered more losses per 100 combat sortie they achieved significantly more. So I-16 production wasn't restarted.
 
Reports like this conflict because they are too simplistic. There are a large number of variables that need to be taken into account and the data from large samples/numbers of operations needs to be analysed before any meaningful conclusions can be drawn. This is the basis of any statistical analysis. Large samples tend to negate the effects of unusual, chance or freakish events.
Cheers
Steve
 

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