Many things in this post are speculative but one thing would be quiet sure!
If there is no war in the east the Wehrmacht and LW can concentrate there whole strenghts against GB in 1941 at the Mediterranean (Malta), North Africa, Suez Canal and Arabian Island.
The goal would be the oil at the arabian island.
Okay, fair comment so far
And if we take the historical strenghts there would be no possibility for GB to defend the Mediterranean (Malta), North Africa, Suez Canal and Arabian Island.
At Barbarossa were 3 Air fleets imagine what will happen if 2 Air Fleets operate at 1941 at the Mediterranean.
Rommel had the 5th and 15th Panzerdividion and roudabout 2 Divisions infantry, imagine what he can do with 10 Divisions 5 tanks 5 infantry!
Not a chance. Limitations on the italian merchant marine and the cargo handling capacities of the Libyan ports would prevent that. In 1940 there were limits on the numbers of trained and equipped personnel that could be deployed to the western desert by the british, but by 1941, this equipment crisis was largely passed. There were large numbers of divs deployed to the mideast and the delta that never were committed to the defence in the western desert. For example a corps sized force, known as Oalforce, which in '42 was upgraded to a full army sized formation. then ther were numbers of CW troopps that were retained in the Delta and never committed to the defnce.
But the big restriction was the limit of Italian shipping, the limits on rear area transport, that make projections like this a mere pipedream.
About the maximum force projection the germans could project into Egypt 1940-41 was 5 divs, certainly no more
As far as air deployment to the centrasl basin, the big limitation was airfields....the decision to deploy LW elements to Sicily was made in Octaber, but it was late December before any units could be moved and then only with two wings of the Korps left in France. To deploy two full air fleets would have taken months, if not years to complete, and required major expenditures in airfield construction and major investments in the italian supply train. wasnt going to happen, at least not immediately, and that gives the RAF plenty of time to react
End of year 1941 the Mediterranean Sea would be totaly free of the Royal Navy and the Wehrmacht would stand at Saudi Arabia.
From 1942/43 there would be massive oil supply for the germans and the italian navy
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Nice if it were possible. How were the Axis planning to get the oil from the Middle east and Arabia to their home ports, even without interference. The British empire does not end at suez. once suez was lost, the eastern bloc of the CW would have moved to a full war footing, and almost certainly have caused the early entry of the US into the war
And after that it would be very very difficult to make an invasion at North Africa, without the the Azores as big Navy and Aircraft base perhaps unimpossible!
Roosevelt had by april 41 (fom memory made guarantees for western hemisphere security, which included iceland and the other Atlantic Islands. This was never going to happen without triggering US belligerency
This scenario would happen, if there was no war in the east and after the lost of BoB with GB as the only enemy
!
But ignores numerous constraints that would prevent it ever coming to fruition
The question is at which date the USA would get in the war?!
As soon as US interests of significance were affected...that equates to any risks to their economic interests in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and any security threat to the western hemisphere, including the Azores
We should calculate this in such a scenario!
Yes, and then reject it as impractical;