Could the Allies defeat Germany only with air power?

[DonL]

Could the Germans send so many troops to Africa? Could they easy the defenses in Europe?

Which defenses?
Only GB or with the Soviets?

At the end of the france campaign the Wehrmacht had 155 Divisions, at the beginning of Barbarossa 180 Divisions!
At June 1941 the Wehrmacht had 22 tank divisions and 18 mot. infantry divisions.

GB was beaten on the ground at france and they had a professional army, the general conscription was comming slowly.
There was no GB Army that could be dangerous to europe until 1943/44 even with a quick rearmament!
Where do you want to get good/trained soldiers?

And the 10 Divisions for Rommel are nothing without a war in the east!

 

[gjs238]

Many things in this post are speculative but one thing would be quiet sure!

If there is no war in the east the Wehrmacht and LW can concentrate there whole strenghts against GB in 1941 at the Mediterranean (Malta), North Africa, Suez Canal and Arabian Island.

The goal would be the oil at the arabian island.

And if we take the historical strenghts there would be no possibility for GB to defend the Mediterranean (Malta), North Africa, Suez Canal and Arabian Island.
At Barbarossa were 3 Air fleets imagine what will happen if 2 Air Fleets operate at 1941 at the Mediterranean.
Rommel had the 5th and 15th Panzerdividion and roudabout 2 Divisions infantry, imagine what he can do with 10 Divisions 5 tanks 5 infantry!

End of year 1941 the Mediterranean Sea would be totaly free of the Royal Navy and the Wehrmacht would stand at Saudi Arabia.
From 1942/43 there would be massive oil supply for the germans and the italian navy.

And after that it would be very very difficult to make an invasion at North Africa, without the the Azores as big Navy and Aircraft base perhaps unimpossible!

This scenario would happen, if there was no war in the east and after the lost of BoB with GB as the only enemy!

The question is at which date the USA would get in the war?!

We should calculate this in such a scenario!

Would ARAMCO tolerate this?

 

[DonL]

What could they do?

Even if the USA declared war to germany at June 1941 in this scenario?
How do you want to defend the oil with the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal in german hands?
The italian navy would be the master of the Mediterranean Sea with two LW Air Fleets operate at the Mediterranean!

The Wehrmacht would occupy Saudi Arabian and the oil!

 

[Jenisch]

Which defenses?
Only GB or with the Soviets?

At the end of the france campaign the Wehrmacht had 155 Divisions, at the beginning of Barbarossa 180 Divisions!
At June 1941 the Wehrmacht had 22 tank divisions and 18 mot. infantry divisions.

GB was beaten on the ground at france and they had a professional army, the general conscription was comming slowly.
There was no GB Army that could be dangerous to europe until 1943/44 even with a quick rearmament!
Where do you want to get good/trained soldiers?

And the 10 Divisions for Rommel are nothing without a war in the east!

And the Navy to transport all those troops to Afrika? Italy had? GB would put a lot more of strenght in Africa without need of supply the Soviets and with American suppport. Also, the British would notice any large scale movemments the Germans started to conduct in the Mediterranean region. The Force Z and other ships send to the Pacific because the Japanese were starting to bring worries historically would be in Europe as well.

I also belive that if FDR would declare war, he would do it already thinking in Franco and the Middle East. Now that the Germans seems to want the Middle East, this will not be deconsiderated. He would probably let clear to Franco that he would enter in the war. This likely would put Franco out. And Franco would have contact with the US and Britain to stationed troops there in case Hitler showed signs he wanted to invade. Portugal as well.

 

[DonL]

Sorry Jenisch,

And the Navy to transport all those troops to Afrika? Italy had? GB would put a lot more of strenght in Africa without the Soviets and with American suppport...

At 1941, you could read in every military history book from an english historican or at churchills memoirs, GB faught with all his strenghts at the Mediterranean Sea and North Africa. It was there only frontline to germany.

GB had historical 90% of his military power at the Mediterranean Sea/North Africa. Germany had perhaps 5% of his military power at 1941 at North Africa! That are facts!

Yes with the LW Air Fleets at the Mediterranean Sea the Italian could supply 10 Divisions at North Africa, because the royal Navy had only 3 bases in the Mediterranean Sea! Gibralta, Malta and Alexandria! At the open Sea they would be at total mercy of the LW!

Look at the numbers of Aircrafts at Barbarossa and imagine what will happen if the german could get 2/3 of the numbers in the Mediterranean Sea to fight!

Edit:

There was no landlease until november/december 1941! Please don't forget this!

Edit2:
Without a war in the east and all focus at the Mediterranean Sea to fight, it is only a question of weeks when Malta would be invaded from german troops! And Malta would be a lot easier at April to June 1941 then Crete.

 

[DonL]

I also belive that if FDR would declare war, he would do it already thinking in Franco and the Middle East. Now that the Germans seems to want the Middle East, this will not be deconsiderated. He would probably let clear to Franco that he would enter in the war. This likely would put Franco out. And Franco would have contact with the US and Britain to stationed troops there in case Hitler showed signs he wanted to invade. Portugal as well.

We are talking about 1941 even at the first half of 1941!

You realy think that spain declare war to germany after his civilian war? Germany had occupied france and stands directly at the borderline to spain. Do you realy think franko is a suicide?
With which weapons and soldiers and moral he want to fight Germany and Italy at 1941?
How do you want to suppot franco when the 1/2 of the LW and 10 Divisions of the Wehrmacht force your strenghts at the Mediterranean, the other 1/2 of the LW operate at Norway and the english channel and the submarines are more dangerous with any day!?
You should think about the fact that at this time the german submarines were a real real pain in the ass of GB and the USA!

Franco is outflanked from any landposition and he would do a **** to declare war to germany!
That's my personal opinion!

 

[Jenisch]

Sorry Jenisch,

"Yes with the LW Air Fleets at the Mediterranean Sea the Italian could supply 10 Divisions at North Africa, because the royal Navy had only 3 bases in the Mediterranean Sea! Gibralta, Malta and Alexandria! At the open Sea they would be at total mercy of the LW!"

Considerate that with the US at war, the English would reinforce even more their power in Africa. And don't desconsiderate what I already said, the English send almost 1000 planes and tanks to Russia in 1941. Also, the Germans would not put most of their air fleet over the Mediterranean, they would need a portion of it in France, and another portion for defense against Stalin. The British also would send even strategic reserves with the American participation certain. The English only need to hold on. As soon as the Americans arrived with carrier and air forces, Hitler would be in trouble. And for last, uncle Joe would not like from this situation, because also would represent a problem to him. He would start to pull some strings to get the Fuher worried.

There was no landlease until november/december 1941! Please don't forget this!

Not formally. But there was a lot of help with weapons and other critical things.

 

[Jenisch]

DonL, about Franco, I didn't said he would enter in the war. I said that he actually would not enter with the US participation. And the US and Britain would help him in case Hitler showed signs of invasion attempt.

 

[Ratsel]

" Look at the numbers of Aircrafts at Barbarossa and imagine what will happen if the german could get 2/3 of the numbers in the Mediterranean Sea to fight!"

Hit the freakin nail on the head with this statement. No russia = a much much more dangerous German armed/air forces.

 

[Jenisch]

Ah, and add 62,000 British soldiers used in Marita to Africa.

 

[Jenisch]

" Look at the numbers of Aircrafts at Barbarossa and imagine what will happen if the german could get 2/3 of the numbers in the Mediterranean Sea to fight!"

Hit the freakin nail on the head with this statement. No russia = a much much more dangerous German armed/air forces.

The problem was the RAF and the USAAF were not the VVS of 1941. The Germans would suffer much more casualities. Even because the Germans didn't have so many fighters. And fighters that were necessary for defense. Britain had much more fighters due to the nature of it's war. And from the start the British would only need to hold the German attacks until the Americans arrived.

All the factors must be considerate. It was not the historical Britain againt the Germans with strenght in the Mediterranean. There are several considerations form the alternative scenario being ignored.

 

[DonL]

Considerate that with the US at war, the English would reinforce even more their power in Africa.

Which power? From what?
Sources?

Don't forget there is no war in the east! You said this scenario is without the UDSSR and Japan!
Please make a decission, is this scenario with or without strategic reserves for germany to the UDSSR and USA to Japan?
Or would you realy suggest that the USA would send there carriers to europa with any dangerous from Japan?
You can have this scenario with strategic reserves or without, but please be fare for both sides!

And don't desconsiderate what I already said, the English send almost 1000 planes and tanks to Russia in 1941.

When?
To my informations not till november 1941! Please show sources!

Also, the Germans would not put most of their air fleet over the Mediterranean, they would need a portion of it in France, and another portion for defense against Stalin.

Why on the english channel? For what? The front is at the Mediterranean! Norway perhaps but they will have 1/3 of the numbers of Barborossa to spread!

For the Stalin quote please answer my question with or without strategic reserves for both sides?

The British also would send even strategic reserves with the American participation certain. The English only need to hold on. As soon as the Americans arrived with carrier and air forces, Hitler would be in trouble. And for last, uncle Joe would not like from this situation, because also would represent a problem to him. He would start to pull some strings to get the Fuher worried.

And now? We have 4 carriers at the Atlantic ocean, no pacific fleet and the 4 carriers had about 350 aircrafts and no bombers (big bombers)!
You realy whant to tell us that 350 aircrafts at the end of 1941 are dangerous for the german LW?

Which planes could the USA send to war at 1941? THe P40? The F4F? Are they realy the trouble you think?
Think about, we are talking about 1941!

Edit:

The Germans would suffer much more casualities. Even because the Germans didn't have so many fighters. And fighters that were necessary for defense. Britain had much more fighters due to the nature of it's war.

Yes that's true!
But GB has to defend their country not germany at 1941. Thre was no daylight bombing from the Royal AirForce.
From the historical viewpoint the two Jagdgeschwader at France were enough to get the Royal AirForce busy at home!

 

[parsifal]

Many things in this post are speculative but one thing would be quiet sure!

If there is no war in the east the Wehrmacht and LW can concentrate there whole strenghts against GB in 1941 at the Mediterranean (Malta), North Africa, Suez Canal and Arabian Island.

The goal would be the oil at the arabian island.

Okay, fair comment so far

And if we take the historical strenghts there would be no possibility for GB to defend the Mediterranean (Malta), North Africa, Suez Canal and Arabian Island.
At Barbarossa were 3 Air fleets imagine what will happen if 2 Air Fleets operate at 1941 at the Mediterranean.
Rommel had the 5th and 15th Panzerdividion and roudabout 2 Divisions infantry, imagine what he can do with 10 Divisions 5 tanks 5 infantry!

Not a chance. Limitations on the italian merchant marine and the cargo handling capacities of the Libyan ports would prevent that. In 1940 there were limits on the numbers of trained and equipped personnel that could be deployed to the western desert by the british, but by 1941, this equipment crisis was largely passed. There were large numbers of divs deployed to the mideast and the delta that never were committed to the defence in the western desert. For example a corps sized force, known as Oalforce, which in '42 was upgraded to a full army sized formation. then ther were numbers of CW troopps that were retained in the Delta and never committed to the defnce.

But the big restriction was the limit of Italian shipping, the limits on rear area transport, that make projections like this a mere pipedream.

About the maximum force projection the germans could project into Egypt 1940-41 was 5 divs, certainly no more

As far as air deployment to the centrasl basin, the big limitation was airfields....the decision to deploy LW elements to Sicily was made in Octaber, but it was late December before any units could be moved and then only with two wings of the Korps left in France. To deploy two full air fleets would have taken months, if not years to complete, and required major expenditures in airfield construction and major investments in the italian supply train. wasnt going to happen, at least not immediately, and that gives the RAF plenty of time to react

End of year 1941 the Mediterranean Sea would be totaly free of the Royal Navy and the Wehrmacht would stand at Saudi Arabia.
From 1942/43 there would be massive oil supply for the germans and the italian navy

.

Nice if it were possible. How were the Axis planning to get the oil from the Middle east and Arabia to their home ports, even without interference. The British empire does not end at suez. once suez was lost, the eastern bloc of the CW would have moved to a full war footing, and almost certainly have caused the early entry of the US into the war

And after that it would be very very difficult to make an invasion at North Africa, without the the Azores as big Navy and Aircraft base perhaps unimpossible!

Roosevelt had by april 41 (fom memory made guarantees for western hemisphere security, which included iceland and the other Atlantic Islands. This was never going to happen without triggering US belligerency

This scenario would happen, if there was no war in the east and after the lost of BoB with GB as the only enemy

!

But ignores numerous constraints that would prevent it ever coming to fruition

The question is at which date the USA would get in the war?!

As soon as US interests of significance were affected...that equates to any risks to their economic interests in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and any security threat to the western hemisphere, including the Azores

We should calculate this in such a scenario!

Yes, and then reject it as impractical;

 

[Jenisch]

Which power? From what?
Sources?

Don't forget there is no war in the east! You said this scenario is without the UDSSR and Japan!
Please make a decission, is this scenario with or without strategic reserves for germany to the UDSSR and USA to Japan?
Or would you realy suggest that the USA would send there carriers to europa with any dangerous from Japan?
You can have this scenario with strategic reserves or without, but please be fare for both sides!

And you be fare as well. The Germans putting all or most of their air fleet in the Mediterranean? Nice, so the US also can put all their carriers as well. The US has Japan as a treat, and Germany has the USSR. And the US not only would help Britain in the Mediterranean, but they also would arrive in the UK and immediately start to attack targets from France until Holland. They would need to take air units to defend France. Because if the USMC launched an assault in France with air support, they would establishe a beachead in Europe. Hitler would have to choose between this and the Mediterranean.

Read here about the Lend Lease from the Soviets: Did Russia Really Go It Alone? How Lend-Lease Helped the Soviets Defeat the Germans

And make no mistake, this Britain would be much more stronger, with more material aid from the US. FDR would send much more supplies to Britain now that he would go to war.

About the American planes, well, they were adequated for defensive operations. The P-40 was historically well used in Africa. But now the Americans would arrive with more more of them, as well as bombers. At least two carrier I belive FDR would bring to Europe. Japan only wanted oil and fight China. They would be with much more fear from Stalin at his doorstep than attack the US.

 

[Jenisch]

Yes, and then reject it as impractical;

Yes. My point is a counter argument against those who think the USSR could have won WWII alone if the Western Allies didn't taked part. I posted this one or two pages behind. Britain, France and the US would never remain neutral to Hitler try conquest the USSR and try conquest Europe later. It is unrealistic as this one.

 

[Ratsel]

The allies in the Mediterranean:

Air raid on Bari - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Much different tatical situation then what was faced in the PTO.

 

[Jenisch]

The allies in the Mediterranean:

Air raid on Bari - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Much different tatical situation then what was faced in the PTO.

Battle of Taranto - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Ratsel]

Battle of Taranto - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Read the Bari one if you havn't. That would be akin to a US carrier fleet in the Med with NO russians to worry about.

 

[Jenisch]

Read the Bari one if you havn't. That would be akin to a US carrier fleet in the Med with NO russians to worry about.

We would see some heavy aerial and sea fighting in the Mediterranean. But the Allies would not let the Germans take the Middle East oil easily. They would accept even carrier losses if necessary. And I suggest you to read the other things I posted like the USAAFwould start to attack in France. The Americans would also treat Norway, and Stalin would be still a problem of it's own.

 

[DonL]

Not a chance. Limitations on the italian merchant marine and the cargo handling capacities of the Libyan ports would prevent that. In 1940 there were limits on the numbers of trained and equipped personnel that could be deployed to the western desert by the british, but by 1941, this equipment crisis was largely passed. There were large numbers of divs deployed to the mideast and the delta that never were committed to the defence in the western desert. For example a corps sized force, known as Oalforce, which in '42 was upgraded to a full army sized formation. then ther were numbers of CW troopps that were retained in the Delta and never committed to the defnce.

But the big restriction was the limit of Italian shipping, the limits on rear area transport, that make projections like this a mere pipedream.

About the maximum force projection the germans could project into Egypt 1940-41 was 5 divs, certainly no more

As far as air deployment to the centrasl basin, the big limitation was airfields....the decision to deploy LW elements to Sicily was made in Octaber, but it was late December before any units could be moved and then only with two wings of the Korps left in France. To deploy two full air fleets would have taken months, if not years to complete, and required major expenditures in airfield construction and major investments in the italian supply train. wasnt going to happen, at least not immediately, and that gives the RAF plenty of time to react

As always you do under estimate the situation if this was the primary goal!
You are talking about 1940/41 and 5 Divisions!
If the LW is at italy with all her strengths and Rommel had 5 elite divisions then Bengasi, Tobruk and Malta are down at June 1941!
Please describe any scenario with sources that can stop Rommel and the LW to reach this goal!

With Malta down there are only two bases for the Royal Navy, Gibratar and Alexandria! And no more supply for the GB troops through the Mediterranean sea with the LW at Italy, Malta and North Africa.
The whole time there would be a building of merchandise ships at the Mediterranean ports from Italy and germany!

With Tobruk there would be a good harbour for the Wehrmacht to force there troops to the suez canal.
Please describe with what troops and supply Archilenk will stopp Rommel with 5 elite divisions the described LW at Italy and North Africa and Malta and Toobruk at german hands to take Alexandria and the Suez Canal at autum 1941?

After that it is only a matter of time when german troops are at Saudi Arabian!
And don't forget there is no fuel at the war in the east, all fuel from Romania could get to the Mediterranean sea for the german troops, LW and the Italian Navy!

Nice if it were possible. How were the Axis planning to get the oil from the Middle east and Arabia to their home ports, even without interference. The British empire does not end at suez. once suez was lost, the eastern bloc of the CW would have moved to a full war footing, and almost certainly have caused the early entry of the US into the war

Lol, and what they want to do against german stukas, He 111 torpedo bombers and later Fritz X'?
The way from Saudi Arabian to the suez canal is realy short and the LW will be present!

But ignores numerous constraints that would prevent it ever coming to fruition

To be very very specific, it is much much much more possible then to invade the UDSSR and get to Baku and the OIL through the Kaukasus!