This is the same mistake as was made in the Dieppe thread....it assumes a perfect strategy for the allies to an historical japanese plan, and makes no allowance for altered japanese plans and forces.
No, I'm not at all. The purpose of this thread is to look at the options ramifications of any of these actions.
and the japanese had plenty of reserves they could call on at short notice, far more than the British could ever hope to find.
If the battle in northern Malaya had been more successful for the british , the Japanese wouold have committed their strategic reserve, the 15th army, which would have been in action in a day or two.
Would they comit the 15th army? very likely.
In a day or two? Not a chance!
The Japanese do not have any reserves to commit at short notice, and in doing so they will have to scrap other plans.
Lets look at their reserves:
The 15th army (33 55 div) is tasked with capturing Thailand, and is engaged in December with gaining control of the northern portions of the country. Although Thailand signed an armistice on Dec 21, there was still some resistance from the population.
By early 42 the 15th is on the Thai/Burmese border preparing for the Burma campaign.
The Japanese are very short of shipping throughout the war, but especially in the first few months when they are building up forces in Truk, Pulau Rabaul etc etc, and sending occupying forces supplies to the Gilberts, Ellice, Solomons various other Pacific territories.
The Japanese Imperial Guards division was scheduled to join the Malay campaign after invading SE Thailand, but was forced to travel
overland to Malaya, and the first regiment from the division doesn't arrive until early Jan.
The limited capacity of the Thai rail net is heavily taxed with supplying two Japanese armies (15th 25th) so they don't really have the option of moving many troops around.
The only real available reserve is the 56th division in Japan, which would have to use the limited shipping to transport to Malaysia.
Had the Malay campaign gone beadly for the Japanese, they could indeed call on some units of the 15 th army, but that would of course destroy any chance of a January attack on Burma.
They would have also called on elements of 14th army, sitting in Palau, waiting for Singas to fall....perhaps a week away from deployment.
14th area army? The were busy invading the Philippines.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Fourteenth_Area_Army
Again, any forces drawn in to Malaya from the Central or Eastern Force
would push back pland to attack Borneo Indonesia
They had two or three divs ready for immediate shipment in Japan, to cover just such an eventuality.
Which divisions are you talking about?
The 56 division is sent to Thailand in early '42, to join the 15th army attack on Burma.
Again, the Japanese logistics is quite strained, they simply don't have loads of transport available.
A more successful British battle in the opening days of Mala would have succeeded inmaking the japanese mad, and thats about it
No, it would have delayed attacks on Burma Indonesia, caused Japanese casualties which they could ill afford, and burned up the limited Japanese logistics capabilities.