Could the Luftwaffe survive against Allied attacks if the USSR had been defeated?

[davparlr]

Isn't that what happened anyways? Or are you referring to the lend-lease aircraft provided to the SU.

Exactly.

I think it depends entirely on when the SU would've been defeated. If it had been in late '41, early '42 the whole setup would've been so entirely different that noone can really say what would've happened. The war in the west might've dropped to another phoney war altogether. The total number of bombers doesn't play that much of a role (imo) as the overall casualties determined whether bombing campaigns were continued or not.

If the SU had not been invaded, almost the entire productive might of the US (all except the small portion used to push Japan back) would have been applied to the Western front. Even without war against the SU, Germany could not hope to keep up with the allies in war production. Remember, GB alone out produced Germany in aircraft manufacture. Great amounts of aircraft would still be over Germany, and "quantity has a quality all its own".

The Pulqui isn't the Ta-183 it's just based on the same layout. Given that the Ta-183 was just a wooden windtunnel models and pre-production versions by the time the development stopped, I doubt it would've made it into production in this exact shape if the war had progressed as the premise here says. With its projected powerplant I have no doubt it would've reached or at leat come close to the performance specs.

Possibly, but I think a lot of aerodynamic problems would have to be solved, which I think would have pushed the aircraft to '47 or so before an acceptable design could fly.

Same goes for the X-5 and the P.1101: The X-5 had swept-wings adjustable in flight and thus the center of gravity problem which could've never been solved. The P.1101 was much simpler.

I agree. I think the P.1011 could have been the first swept wing aircraft to be combat ready, mainly because they could test the aircraft with various sweep angles until they found a good one and then bolt it down.

 

[kool kitty89]

I agree with your assessment. There is always a tendency here to assume paper aircraft will perform as proposed, and the transonic arena was especially dangerous. However, I do think the P.1101 could have been developed in 1945 utilizing a fixed wing sweep to a moderate degree; with inflight variable sweep, it was years away.

The Horton, while very advanced in theory, was five to ten years away.

The P.1101 was never intended to have in-flight variable sweep. The V1 prototype had an adjustable sweep feature (adjusted on the ground, pre-flight) to determine the best sweep to use for the subsequent fighter.

 

[kool kitty89]

I too think the P.1101 was the best bet for the next generation German fighters in development at the war's end. (there was the HG II configuration for the Me 262, but I don't know if that was even proposed for production, or just an experiment)

This one looked pretty promising and practical too, had it gotten more attention:
http://www.luft46.com/bv/bvp211i.html

I also think the alternate variation of the Ta 183 was more practical: http://www.luft46.com/fw/ta183-ii.html

 

[delcyros]

There would be very small numbers of these aircraft if any. The Ta 183 is best described as downright dangerous given the highly swept wings and complete lack of high lift devices. Add in the fact that it would be woefully underpowered and you've got serious problems.

Agreed. There is every reason to believe that the Ta-183 would have shown unacceptably difficult low speed handling. Tank / Multhopp were never keen in implementing LE-slats to their designs, altough wing fences may have been an option (reducing straight level performance in return).

The speed calculations of all the Luft46 aircraft are rather optimistic given the lack of accurate theoretical means of calculating transsonic drag.

It is understandable when judging the difficulties engaged in the transsonic speed calculations. The DVL compiled a comparison of the different calculation methods dating to mid january 1945. Prof. W. Quick and Dr. P. Höhler still didn´t agreed on one solution in this report. Therefore, every company continued on it´s own, slightly differing methods of calculation, Heinkel beeing rather conservative and Messerschmidt beeing optimistic in this process.

The Ta-183 wasn't underpowered by any means what'so'ever, and the performance of the a/c would've been mindblowing for its time. The light weight, large wing area, high sweep high performance engine would ensure great performance.

With 2.0 t. max. fuel, the Ta-183 with HeS011 A would show a thrust to weight ratio of 0.24 (taken into account average intake and exhoust losses) as opposed to 0.28 for the P-80 / Me-262A and 0.31+ for the He-162 (each with max. fuel). Even with reduced 1200 Kg fuel load (66 minutes full power) the Ta-183 is no better than the very first version of the Me-262 at full load. It would compare unfavourably in acceleration and powerload to all contemporary jet fighters, which would justify to say it was underpowered.

If you want to compare the Ta-183 to anything it has to be the MIG-15 which is much closer to The ta-183 in terms of design than the Pulqui II.

The MiG-15 has as much to do with the Ta-183 as the Pulqui-II has. Basically two different designs. The design to see service beeing (perhaps) more influenced by the Ta-183 was the swedish Saab Tunnan. But the Tunnan nevertheless is an indigenious swedish design, benefitting from Focke Wulf construction works.

The 1945 jet fighter development program was continueing in to many ways to show any significant deployment of such products in late 1945:

-The Me-262 program was concentrating in improving the performance of the Me-262. Improved engines and gradual changes on the tail design, finally a new wing were to be put under investigation (the HG-II prototype for the 35 deg. swept back wing, Werknummer 111 538 was damaged during taxiing). Lots of industrial ressources went into this program
-The Ar-234 program was introducing crescent wings and four engined types
-The He-162 program demanded a lot of ressources and just build prototypes with interchangable, swept forward / swept back wings
-Messerchmidt continued development of the P1101 as a testbed (possibly a more valid choice than the Ta-183) and various other projects
-Focke Wulf concentrated on the Flitzer and Ta-183
-Junkers got a developmental production order for the Ju-EF-128 (another complex highly dangerous design)
-Lippisch concentrated on a He-162 / Me-163 hybrid, the P-15 Diana in Vienna
-Blohm Voss concentrated on the P-212.III jet fighter
-Henschel designed the P135, which also was favoured by the EHK (my personal favourite)

That´s simply to much diversion.

 

[eddie_brunette]

After spending ages reading this threat, I selected "other".
I cannot help to think that if Heman Goering was NOT the head of the Luftwaffe, and if Hitler did not interfere, whould the Luftwaffe been beaten by anyone then?

edd

 

[KrazyKraut]

If the SU had not been invaded, almost the entire productive might of the US (all except the small portion used to push Japan back) would have been applied to the Western front. Even without war against the SU, Germany could not hope to keep up with the allies in war production. Remember, GB alone out produced Germany in aircraft manufacture. Great amounts of aircraft would still be over Germany, and "quantity has a quality all its own".

I would like to see the numbers for that because if i do the naive assessment of just adding up the most relevant fighters and bombers i think Germany produced more. But since Germany wasn't on full wartime production until '43 you might be correct on this. Total production capacity certainly was (is) higher for Germany than for the UK.

However, I highly doubt Japan could've been pushed back by a "small portion".

So even if Germany's air force was defeated by say, late 1945, then that's that. The point is: If the number of troops commited to the east were stationed in the west, I doubt there would've been any invasion plans in the form of overlord.
The ground war in the east was what broke the neck of Germany not the air war in the west. Without a serious sacrifice in manpower on the US and Commonwealth part France could not have been liberated with an invasion and even then the undertaking was highly risky and could've spawned a second dunkirk incident. I am not sure the US would've committed to that. The air war was not self sufficient and the strategic planners were well aware of that,

Possibly, but I think a lot of aerodynamic problems would have to be solved, which I think would have pushed the aircraft to '47 or so before an acceptable design could fly.

maybe, maybe not. It doesn't really matter anyways since Gemany had the Me-262 (and a cheap He-162 to flank it). The 262 was a better airframe than anything the allies had at the time and had enough development potential. With the P.1101 and the Ta-183 they had two reasonable next generation jets and one of them would cut it. The allies were still behind.

 

[Soren]

There is absolutely no reason to suspect that the Ta-183 would be dangerous to fly, at all, not anymore than the MIG-15 was anyhow. And ofcourse either automatic LE slats or wing fences would've been equipped on the a/c soon after or even before the first test flights, the low speed characteristics quickly making them an obvious necessecity. With the addition of either wing fences or LE slats the tricky low speed flying characteristics of the a/c would be emmidiately solved.

Neither Hans Multhopp nor Kurt Tank was against wing fences or LE slats, and to suggest that they were is pretty ridiculous as any self respecting designer would add them if they were found necessary to the stability and performance of the design. Kurt tank didn't put slats on his a/c for the simple reason that they were complicated devices to manufacture and prepare the wing for, slowing down the production process and they added extra weight to the a/c. Kurt Tank emphazised excellent high speed handling, knowing full well that most dogfights by 43 and onwards took place at such high speeds that G forces well beyond the human ability to withstand could always be pulled.

 

[delcyros]

Perhaps You show me a single Focke-Wulf design with either wing fences or LE-slats? The focke-Wulf company had no experiences with these. There would be plenty of use for such high lift devices in case of many Fw-planes but not a single one was installed into them. I also haven´t ever seen such in the very detailed Baubeschreibung of the Ta-183.

There is absolutely no reason to suspect that the Ta-183 would be dangerous to fly, at all, not anymore than the MIG-15 was anyhow.

I must disagree. The tail design of the MiG-15 is inherently more stable, the wings enjoi a slightly larger area, a different airfoil and a greater thickness ratio, so they do produce significantly more lift per area. The Ta-183 has 40 deg. sweep (!) as opposed to 35 deg. in the MiG-15, and the wings of the MiG have 2 deg. anhedral as opposed to 0 on the Ta-183, pointing to somehow better stall behavior (the MiG-15 nevertheless was tricky in this regard). More importantly, the MiG has twice the power aviable and enjois a much better powerload figure, giving You more acceleration ellbows low slow.

 

[KrazyKraut]

For Design II of the Ta-183 they had already reduced wing sweep to 32 degrees, so even less than the MiG. I would say the P.1101 looked more promising though. I agree on the tail design. Interestingly Messerschmitt ran tests with Me-262s on how much poweroutput decreases when the air intakes on the nacelles in front of the engine (i hope you get what I'm trying to say) were significantly lenghtened. The resulting loss of power was not significant. Both the P.1101 and the Ta-183 could've benefitted from that (with the engines moved back thus making the tail more stable).

And which of the Focke-Wulf aircraft would've benefitted from slats besides possibly this one? I can't think of any.

With the scenario in mind I don't think it makes much sense to assume that these aircraft would've flown in these configurations anyways. The Ta-183 aswell as the P.1101 programs were highly sped up due to the desperate situation, under the conditions presented here that would've been different.

 

[Soren]

Delcyros,

How many a/c did FW make with any meaningful wing sweep ? None. Hence why wing fences (in particular) and LE slats weren't a necessity. The deal is different with an a/c with any meaningful wing sweep, and you can be sure Multhopp Tank both knew that!

Also to repeat myself, that there are no LE slats or wing fences shown on the drawing board illustrations is no surprise at all even if they were planned. Why ? Cause you need to fly the a/c to assess the necessity of such devices and where they are to be placed.

Also I'd really like to know where you got the info that the MIG-15's wing was of a higher TR and the idea that the tail design was more stable as-well.

And as for wing dihedral anhedral (wing twist) did you know that the Ta-183 featured elevons and do you know the effect this has on lift distribution at high AoA's ?? Doesn't seem like it.

 

[kool kitty89]

Soren, T-tails are inherantly problematic, though there was an alternate tail design (from design III) which looked more promising.

Though I think Design III was entirely more practical. (and more attractive)

 

[davparlr]

, and the wings of the MiG have 2 deg. anhedral as opposed to 0 on the Ta-183, pointing to somehow better stall behavior (the MiG-15 nevertheless was tricky in this regard).

I suspect that the anhedral (wing droop) of the Mig is do mainly to offset swept wing roll stability and mid-wing roll stability and increase roll rate (fighters like instability for manueverability, most modern fighters are electronically stable). I don't know how anhedral would apply to stall characteristics.

And as for wing dihedral anhedral (wing twist) did you know that the Ta-183 featured elevons and do you know the effect this has on lift distribution at high AoA's ?? Doesn't seem like it.

Dihedral/anhedral (angle the wing makes with the fuselage, looking from the front: Dihedral-wing tips are higher than the base, anhedral-wing tips are below base (droop) ) has nothing to do with wing twist (twisting of wing to ensure stall occurs first inside ailerons).

I don't think the Ta-183 was anywhere near deployment in '45, maybe the end of '46. Too many unknown transonic aero problems and configuration control couplings to fix. In Argentina, Tank and his German design team had a tough time with control and stall problems. I think you are waving a magic wand of German engineering over a very complex and advanced design (like the Horton), and saying everything will work as planned.

 

[syscom3]

Stop dwelling on the Me-262 and other advanced designs. They were not going to be available in quantity or effectiveness untill after 1945.

The LW has to stop the allied invasion in June 1944 or the war is lost.

 

[kool kitty89]

Wing twist is "washout," not dihedral. Also I think the Type II configuration was quite problematic (as mentioned earlier) and the Type III configuration (particularly to the more conventional tail and elevator) was much more practical.

Stop dwelling on the Me-262 and other advanced designs. They were not going to be available in quantity or effectiveness untill after 1945.

The LW has to stop the allied invasion in June 1944 or the war is lost.

What do you mean? For the advanced swept-wing variants, maybe, but the standard Me 262, certainly not.


The point on the invasion is true, but this has alerady been discussed here quite a bit.


I'm still wondering what would have happended in the Pacific with the Allies so concentrated on Europe.

 

[syscom3]

The post I started on the Me-262 provided plenty of evidence that this magnificent fighter didn't do anything until the final months of the war, when it was irrelevant to the outcome.

It wasn't even available in quantity until after the summer of 1944.

It is unfortunate for the LW that right when it could recover from the losses on the eastern front, it would still have to deal with an ever increasing allied AF that had the resources to still hunt them down wherever they went.

 

[kool kitty89]

You said until after 1945, which I took as the end of 1945. If you meant the begining of '45 that would make sense.

 

[syscom3]

You said until after 1945, which I took as the end of 1945. If you meant the begining of '45 that would make sense.

Yes, I should have said beginning 1945.

My mistake.

 

[davparlr]

I would like to see the numbers for that because if i do the naive assessment of just adding up the most relevant fighters and bombers i think Germany produced more. But since Germany wasn't on full wartime production until '43 you might be correct on this. Total production capacity certainly was (is) higher for Germany than for the UK.

Here are a couple of sources on total aircraft production. I don't know the validity of the numbers but they seem compatible.

Wikepedia

US 303,713
UK 131,549
Ger 119,871

Taphilo

US 297,199
UK 131,549
Ger 119,871


US produce 100,000 fighters

By January, '44, the production quantity was

US 161,394
UK 93,018
Ger 71,728

A guess, about 24,000 US production was allocated to the Pacific Theater (I couldn't find any data).

So at the start of '44, Germany would have had roughly one third the air forces that the Allies had. This would never improve, In 1944, Germany out produced UK. However, Germany produce only 36% of the aircraft the UK and US produced for ETO.
Germany could never out produce the US. If the P-51B production had improved, say by converting P-39 production to P-51B, then there is no reason to believe air dominance over Germany in early '44, would change. That is, the additional Luftwaffe forces available would not have been able to overcome the additional P-51s. It there were no increase in P-51B production, then control over Germany would probably been delayed six months, delaying D-Day.

However, I highly doubt Japan could've been pushed back by a "small portion".

I shouldn't have said "pushed back". The original plan of Roosevelt's was to prevent further expansion of Japan while Germany was being defeated. I do not think a large percentage of AAF forces were ever allocated to the Pacific until '45. In any event, I think the Navy could have "held" Japan without AAF air support. Indeed, I think the Navy could have eventually defeated Japan alone by simply strangulation, but in a longer time span. The US Navy was never a big player in ETO (except, maybe D-Day). I think that without doubt, the majority, if not all of AAF Pacific could be used in ETO.

So even if Germany's air force was defeated by say, late 1945, then that's that. The point is: If the number of troops committed to the east were stationed in the west, I doubt there would've been any invasion plans in the form of overlord.
The ground war in the east was what broke the neck of Germany not the air war in the west. Without a serious sacrifice in manpower on the US and Commonwealth part France could not have been liberated with an invasion and even then the undertaking was highly risky and could've spawned a second dunkirk incident. I am not sure the US would've committed to that. The air war was not self sufficient and the strategic planners were well aware of that,

With the influx of added aircraft, from Lend-Lease, to the Allies to offset the new available Luftwaffe aircraft from the Eastern front, I do not see the defeat of the German air forces much later than it was.

maybe, maybe not. It doesn't really matter anyways since Gemany had the Me-262 (and a cheap He-162 to flank it). The 262 was a better airframe than anything the allies had at the time and had enough development potential. With the P.1101 and the Ta-183 they had two reasonable next generation jets and one of them would cut it. The allies were still behind.

Except for the Ta-183, which I think would require substantial development, I agree. Although, I think the Allies would be only six to nine months behind. Of course, these new planes would still be swamped by hordes of lesser types.

 

[syscom3]

Once the allies had the atomic bomb, then the days of the reich were numbered.

 

[kool kitty89]

We already discussed that specifically on pg. 11-12. As Delcyros mentioned, while they may not have had nuclear weapons to counter with, the Germans had chemical weapons at their disposal which would be even more devistating.

The best stuff is on pg. 12 and the total quote:

all the good Nazis would have been in Berlin, and that bomb probably would've taken out almost all of the Nazi High Command, including der Furhrer. Probably the end of the war.

This is a very unlikely event. Central european cities simply aren´s build like japanese. If You compare the damage to buildings with the distance to point zero, You can analyse the blast effect of the then in use bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hieroshima. The high degree of area destruction caused by them is to a very large extent attributable to the light, wooden construction of buildings in both japanese cities. Beton, stone and brick constructions usually prevailed in Japan. Damage was generally caused above the surface and damage below the surface was limited instead.
The large european cities not only are build from very thick and solid stone walls but also regularely have cellars for shelters.
In addition to this, Flakbunkers of the period placed on the larger cities are proof against blast, heat effects and radiation. They do have their own electrical plants and ressources. The subway system would also offer a degree of protection depending on distance to point zero.
This all is nothing in comparison to the autark Führerbunker substructures where the nazi elite housed during the latter part of the war. Don´t expect the nazi leadership to be taken out by a nuke unless the nuke happens to hit the bunker physically.

If there were a possibility of a Nazi counter nuclear strike, say against London, then I imagine the British wouldn't have been so keen on a nuclear strike on Berlin. However, the U.S. might have just gone ahead and done it anyway without British approval (or knowledge). Who knows - thankfully it never came to that.

Yes, thankfully. They were in possession a more dangerous substance than a nuke. Had they been nuked, they may have used their refined Botulinum against the UK and likely also against the US East coats with millions of losses on human life. The UK may have used it´s stocks of nerve gas in return, causing millions of losses in europe. Anyhow, these are bitter prospects.