Idea behind Mustang X in few hundreds by Summer of 1943 was not that they still roam the French countryside between SL and 15000 ft, but to do the escort at 25000 ft, and from position of superior performance hit Luftwaffe. The ~540 Mustangs available for conversion is a fine number, way better than my 200 of converted airframes for Summer or 1943.
Strength of Luftwaffe will be also diminishing from July-November of 1943 in an even greater rate.
100 longer range fighters in the west are not going to do a lot to the Luftwaffe, the Mediterranean and Red Air Forces did a lot of the damage July/August 1943 part of the reason for the German pull back, as well as the raids launched from Britain. And there are not 500 spare two stage Merlins available without disruption to Spitfire output. As of 30 June 1943 the Luftwaffe quartermaster recorded 1,849 single and 194 twin engined fighters on strength, total 2,043 as of 30 November it was 1,789 single and 315 twin, total 2,104.
Work will return assets invested in a major fashion. Like the survival and greater experience of the 8th AF bombers' crews (and their A/C), enabling them to do more damage, all while inflicting an even greater casualty list for the Luftwaffe.
Actually given what the 8th was doing at the time and where its losses were being taken your statement is incorrect. How many of the bomber losses is a Mustang X force expected to save versus historical losses?
The USAAF statistical digest reports to end 1943 the 8th Air Force had lost 1,078 heavy bombers on operations, 737 to fighters, 228 to flak, 113 to other causes. The incomplete loss list I am working from identifies 1,223 losses on operations, including 642 to fighter, 255 to flak, 103 to flak and fighter, in reasonable enough agreement for losses considered caused by the defences, then comes 55 battle damage, 51 lack of fuel, 47 collisions, 37 mechanical failure and other various causes. A loss is defined as failed to return or written off.
Richard Davis notes the 8th Air Force had 10,976 bomber sorties attacking Germany to end 1943, the top 7 targets were
Bremen 2,326, Emden 1,185, Wilhelmshaven 1,005, Kiel 801, Ludwigshafen 653, Miscellaneous 554, so various targets of opportunity etc. by a few bombers at a time, Munster 500, Schweinfurt comes in at 411 attacking, Regensburg at 126.
All up a little over 100 locations identified, most are in Western Germany, so the obvious question is rather than spend all that effort converting Allison P-51 to Merlin why not put it into earlier and bigger drop tanks for P-47 and a wing or two of Spitfire VIII with rear fuselage tank that is a lot less effort.
Back to the loss list, to end October 1943 it says 364 8th Air Force bombers lost to fighters, 111 to flak and 42 to flak and fighters when attacking Germany, total 516, unsurprisingly Schweinfurt tops the list for attacking bombers lost to fighters or a combination of flak and fighters, Schweinfurt 93, Kiel 38, Bremen 29, Munster 26, Wilhelmshaven 24, Regensburg 18, Stuttgart 18, Emden 17, Anklam 17, Hannover 14, Wangerooge 11, Oschersleben 10.
Again, given the targets, using Spitfire VIII and P-47 with drop tanks as escort seems viable for most. Norwich to Kiel is 382 miles, Bremen 314 miles, Munster 273 miles.