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In this scenario UK had one very bad problem, already in early 1900s British had concluded that they could not defend effectively their crown jewelry India against determined Russian attack, that was one of the reasons why they decided to warm their relations with Russia. In early 40s the other problems would have been Middle-East, what to do if the SU decided to attack south in order to catch Middlr-East oil wells?
According to the report by General Gamelin submitted to the French Prime Minister on 22 February 1940, an oil shortage would cripple the Red Army and Soviet Air Force, as well as Soviet collective farm machinery, causing possible widespread famine and even the collapse of the Soviet Union: "Dependence on oil supplies from the Caucasus is the fundamental weakness of Russian economy. The Armed Forces were totally dependent on this source also for their motorized agriculture. More than 90% of oil extraction and 80% of refinement was located in the Caucasus (primarily Baku). Therefore, interruption of oil supplies on any large scale would have far-reaching consequences and could even result in the collapse of all the military, industrial and agricultural systems of Russia."[4] An important source of raw materials would also be denied to Nazi Germany with the destruction of the oil fields.
Serious preparation by the British began after the end of Stalin's war with Finland in March 1940. By April, plans to attack oil production centres in the Caucasian towns of Baku, Batum and Grozny were complete. Bombers were to be flown from bases in Iran, Turkey and Syria. The plans were called "Western Air Plan 106" and given the code name "Operation Pike".[5] The French side proposed accelerating the planning, whereas the British side was more cautious, fearing a possible German-Soviet alliance, should the allies attack the USSR.[6] The Soviet leadership also anticipated allies' actions. Thus, from 25 to 29 March, the leading staff of the Transcaucasian Military District conducted the following map exercise. According to scenario, the "black" forces, continuing their actions against the "brown" forces at the Western front, attacked in cooperation with "blue" and "green" forces; they were repelled by the "reds" in Caucasus, who then started a counteroffensive towards Erzurum and Tebriz.[7]
Subsequent analysis of the photography by the PDU revealed that the oil infrastructure in Baku and Batum were particularly vulnerable to air attack as both could be approached from the sea, so the more difficult target of Grozny would be bombed first to exploit the element of surprise. Oil fields were to be attacked with incendiary bombs, while tests conducted at the Royal Arsenal at Woolwich revealed light oil storage tanks at the oil processing plants could be detonated with high explosives.
As of 1 April, four squadrons comprising 48 Bristol Blenheim Mk IV bombers were transferred to the Middle East Command, supplemented with a number of single-engined Wellesley bombers for night missions. A French force of 65 Martin Maryland bombers and a supplementary force of 24 Farman F.222 heavy bombers were allocated for night operations during the campaign. The French were preparing new air fields in Syria which were expected to be ready by 15 May. The campaign was expected to last three months. Over 1,000 short tons (910 t) of ordnance was allocated to the operation: 404 armour-piecing bombs, 554 500 lb (230 kg) and 5,188 250 lb (110 kg) general-purpose bombs, and 69,192 4 lb (1.8 kg) incendiary bombs.[12]
Hello Viking
early 1900s the British worried on a Russian attack through Afganistan, which had survived as a buffer state at that time.
IMHO the SU would not in your scenario antagonize Turkey and would attack only persia and Iraq. Could UK be able to get Turkey to declare war on the SU is the question.And what about Japan?
The 1940 plans for the air attacks on Baku would have been ineffective because of lack of carrying capacity of the Allied bombers in the area and the logistical difficulties. Some B-24s would not be enough to change that, several hundreds would be needed, look the effects of Tidal Wave
The French diplomat René Massigli, in a report to Paris, noted that American oil engineers observed "as a result of the manner in which the oil fields have been exploited, the earth is so saturated with oil that fire could spread immediately to the entire neighboring region; it would be months before it could be extinguished and years before work could be resumed again."[1]
In June 1942, 13 B-24 Liberators of the "Halverson project" (HALPRO) attacked Ploiești. Though damage was small, Germany responded by putting strong anti-aircraft defenses around Ploiești. Luftwaffe General Alfred Gerstenberg built one of the heaviest and best-integrated air defense networks in Europe. The defenses included several hundred large-caliber 88mm guns and 10.5 cm FlaK 38 anti-aircraft guns, and many more small-caliber guns. The latter were concealed in haystacks, railroad cars, and mock buildings.[11] The Luftwaffe had three fighter groups within flight range of Ploiești (52 Bf 109 fighters and Bf 110 night fighters, and some Romanian IAR-80 fighters).[4] Gerstenberg also counted on warnings from the Luftwaffe signals intelligence station in Athens, which monitored Allied preparations as far away as North Africa.
That does raise the question of relocation to the Urals. If there's no German invasion, focus may have remained on the existing industrial centers and accelerated production and development of weapons and equipment but potentially left them more vulnerable to strategic strikes.It isn't hard to hide tanks, guns in forests. It is an awful lot harder to hide dozens of miles of railroad tracks leading to a factory. Russians had an awful lot of empty landscape and only a relatively small area of built up areas.
Hello Viking
The Soviets probably had good AA defences around Baku and probably plentiful fighters also, PVO had thousands of planes and Stalin was aware of the importance of Baku, IIRC the first MiGs were deployed there. Blenheims were unsuitable for night ops and had 454 kg bomb load, Marylands could carry twice that bombload but I don't know its range/payload specs. IIRC the SU had an early warning radar system at Baku. The LW made a couple big raids against Grozny refineries, von Richthofen thought they were very succesful but I don't know what the real results were, those could give some indication on the vulnerability of Baku. And didn't Soviet have some spare capacity? Didn't they export oil before the war?
Weren't most of them stopped because they were failures? Such as the Mig-5Soviet were developing several twin-engine fighters in 1939-41 but the crisis of 41 stopped most projects and only Pe-3 (the fighter version of Pe-2) went to production
That does raise the question of relocation to the Urals. If there's no German invasion, focus may have remained on the existing industrial centers and accelerated production and development of weapons and equipment but potentially left them more vulnerable to strategic strikes.
The MiGs and Pe-8 definitely needed further development to be really useful beyond what they were in 1941, and aside from accelerated development efforts due to avoiding Ural relocation, there might have been some greater emphasis on continued AM-35 development and production over the AM-38, or possibly even greater emphasis on employing the AM38 (or an even simpler AM-35 derivative with low-altitude supercharging) for a low/medium altitude MiG fighter/attack derivative.
The Pe-2 might not have been a good basis for an escort fighter, but adapting it to AM-35s might have made it a dangerous high-alt fast bomber, maybe a useful interceptor as well. (with AM38s and up-armored for ground attack, it may have had practical advantages over the Il-2, but similar problems/disadvantages as above, including the Soviet strategy of quantity over quality)
Turbocharger and turbojet (and Ramjet and rocket) development should have been smoother/faster as well without the Ural relocation delays. Timely maturation of aircraft diesel engines seems more likely as well.
Historically they didn't set up any air defenses until August/September 1942 as a response to German forces moving into the Caucasus according to Joel Hayward on this study of Case Blue. Of course that was in our timeline. In this scenario that might be different. By 1942 the British would have Sterlings, Halifaxes, and Lancasters, plus of course LL aircraft and the French would be fielding B-24s (on order historically for 1941). Blenheims would not be conducting anything but secondary daylight raids initially while surprise was still there.
Probably Howard is in error here, in 1940, when RAF made PR sorties in Baku area, at least one was aborted because of fast-climbibg fighters were approaching the Blenheim, the crew thought they must be 109s but in reality probably MiGs. On AA I might have info in one book, but I don't have time just now to dig that out. But clearly already in 1940 there were an effective early-warning system and interceptors in place.
I was referring to PVO defenses. They may have had VVS, Soviet army aviation, in the area given that they had ground forces there; it would only take people on the ground to see unknown aircraft to cause the army to scramble its fighters to intercept. The PVO was not present in 1940.
Sorry, it was Cotton's Hudson, Baku was phographed on 30 March 1940 from 6.000m, Batumi on 5 Apr, it was during the latter op when they were fired at by AA (meaning PVO was there) and saw the '109' but got over Turkey before the interceptor got them.
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The PE-8 might be OK with further development. The Mig may have been a dead end.
The problem with the AM-35/38 engine series for small fighters is that it is very close to the DB603 in size (both external and displacement) and weight but turned hundreds of rpm less which limited it's power. They did try sticking the ASh-82 on the Mig airframe and while it worked it didn't really do anything the LA-5 couldn't do and there weren't enough ASh-82 engines to go around.
ANd the TU-2 bomber started as a fighter. there were a few others.
This constant fascination with sticking really big engines in planes that were never designed for them can run into problems real quick. They did build about 360 of the PE-3 fighters using M-105 engines. An AM-35/38 engine weighed about 600lb more than a M-105 engine. It needed more coolant and bigger radiators/oil coolers and needed bigger props.
The rpm was increased by 100 already for the AM 38; with a counter-balanced crankshaft, the AM 42 was doing 2500 rpm and produced 2000 CV, in 1945, on lousy 95 oct fuel. The AM 38 was good for 1600 CV in 1941, the AM 38F made 1700 CV in 1942.
IIRC The Tu-2 started as a bomber, with proper bomb bay (contrary to the Pe-2, for example) and couple of MGs in front.
The problem is the altitude. Lets say, just for arguments sake (Illustration) that the AM-35 was making 1500hp in the cylinders and was using up 100hp of that in friction and was using 200hp to drive the supercharger leaving it with 1200hp to the prop. Changing the gear ratio of the supercharger to one that spun the impeller 70% as fast (I haven't bothered to look them up) would require 1/2 the power to the supercharger leaving you with 1300hp at the prop with no other changes, except you now are heating the intake charge well under 1/2 as much so you get a denser intake charge. You can also use more boost before detonation sets in. That may well explain a fair amountof the extra power of the AM-38. Remember that a Merlin VIII was good for 1080hp for take off at 5 3/4lbs boost on 87 octane compared to the Melrin III 880hp at 6 1/4lb boost on 87 octane. An extra 200hp (22.7%)and it all didn't come from just the difference in power needed to drive the supercharger and they weren't even using more boost.
So basically the altitude advantage the Allies have is real and it would seriously distort Soviet efforts to counter it? Historically the Soviets had to end Mig-3 and AM35 production to make engines for the IL-2 (AM38). Even without the disruption of Barbarossa and the benefits of say capturing Genshagen Daimler engine facilities they would be in trouble trying to match the RAF and ALA bombing their supply lines from 20k feet. Once sufficient Mosquitos show up they are really in trouble trying to catch them, with or without radar due to altitude and climb issues. AAA without sufficient gunlaying radar and computers are going to have trouble trying to hit 20k feet bombers. Or does the Soviets have other options?