Question:
In 1938/39, which British aircraft manufacturer had the most experience (and success) with large aircraft?
Could one of these manufacturers have modified an existing airframe to an upscaled, six engine heavy bomber from that existing design?
Ask that question within three to four years and you'd get a different answer, because then you have to add, which British company has experience building a reliable and suitable operational four-engined bomber and the answer becomes Avro, without a shadow of a doubt. Handley Page's Halifax is embroiled in engine and airframe issues that means that it has a long way to go before its problems are sorted, then there's Short Brothers, whose Stirling is a credible workhorse, but requires weight loss, a bigger span and an uninterrupted weapon bay to carry bigger RAF bombs that are entering service from 1941 onwards. The Lancaster airframe is by far the best performing RAF four-engined bomber from its introduction into service.
Once the war started, Air Ministry tenders worked on the best entry to the requirement, while taking into consideration how much effort the tender would affect existing war production. If this is the case, then the design chosen would more often than not be farmed to a company without as much work as the parent company. If Avro was busy fulfilling Lancaster orders, then another company would be brought into to do the work. Before the war, things differed a little in that the company has to have the right experience and production facilities to do the job. If the product is successful, the Air Ministry expected facilities available for production to be provided by the manufacturer, although a notable exception was the Hawker Hurricane, which, when an order for 600 Hurris was put out, Hawker simply did not have the production capability, so a new factory was produced and Gloster was bought in to build the type under licence.
An example of a manufacturer not able to fulfil a requirement despite its design winning a tender was Westland and the Whirlwind. Westland had only one factory and its workforce had not built an all-metal aircraft before, not only that but it was building Lysanders to existing orders. Interestingly, Avro winning the P13/36 contract was something of an abberation as Avro had never built a big all-metal bomber before; it gained much experience in sheet metal work from building Blenheims under licence, therefore the Manchester was a huge learning curve for the Avro workforce, whose biggest order up to that point was for Avro Ansons, an aircraft with one foot in the past, being based on the Fokker F.VIIb copy the Avro Ten.
Timing is everything and priorities that wartime introduced certainly changed specifications issued before the war, in many cases rendering them obsolete, even after production began. Aircraft like the Vickers Warwick to B.1/35 found themselves without official interest by the appropriate organisations, even though more than 800 were built.