If the RAF had been defeated in the Battle of Britain

[Airframes]

Here are a couple of pics of the Channel in August, with the English coast line at the right..
OK, at this altitude, the sea state is not visible, but those cloud formations tell at lot. The second pic, taken maybe two minutes after the first shot (if that), is approaching the coast of Holland - look how quickly the clouds have developed, meaning the weather situation below has also changed, and the sea will be starting to get rather agitated.

 

[Shortround6]

It isn't.

Just pointing out that the gunnery of many of these small ships was nowhere near the gunnery of larger naval vessels. However the Germans, to have any chance of success, would have to pick weather conditions most favorable to their situation, clam seas and good visibility for visual signaling. Few, if any of the barges would have radios and even a good number of the tugs/ tow vessels would not have two-way radios.

With hundreds of trawlers in service their accomplishments are all over the place. From being sunk in their first engagement to having carriers that lasted the war and serving in the waters off 3 continents.

Google HMT Arab and see Trawlers – World War 2

for some reading about some of these trawlers.

If the trawlers are having a hard time with conditions the Invasion has already failed.

 

[pbehn]

The thing is, the weather in the Channel (and over the North Sea) changes very quickly and suddenly. I remember on one particular trip on a walking tour of the heavy gun emplacements overlooking Dover, the day started with good clear weather, but in less than an hour it had greyed up and started raining. Visibility dropped rapidy. After a couple of hours the fog had rolled in. We left Dover and headed to Capel, and by the time we reached the BoB memorial it was sunny and clear (but very windy).

He He Nuuumannn, I am a veteran of many ferry crossings over more than 25 years, I was just asking if there was a record of the actual weather on the actual proposed dates.

 

[nuuumannn]

Oh, okay, but the weather is remarkably changeable - I was astonished and regular journey makers to the area expressed no surprise at all to it. We did have fun standing on the cliffs yelling "I wave my private parts at your aunties!" and "Your mother was a hamster and your father smelled of elder berries!" in the general direction of France in the rain!

 

[pbehn]

Oh, okay, but the weather is remarkably changeable - I was astonished and regular journey makers to the area expressed no surprise at all to it. We did have fun standing on the cliffs yelling "I wave my private parts at your aunties!" and "Your mother was a hamster and your father smelled of elder berries!" in the general direction of France in the rain!

nuuumannn your profile says Nelson which comes up as New Zealand south Island, you discovered why the English have a weather condition known as "changeable" which freaked out my Japanese colleagues, it says nothing and everything..."prepare for every possibility", something you cannot explain to anyone who hasn't been there. The idea of setting off in the dark to cross the channel in a towed barge could only be proposed by someone who hasn't left central Europe. A barge crossing a +/- 6 kts current at 2.5 kts is like a bomber doing 200 MPH flying in +/- 500MPH side winds with no outside reference other than a compass you have no idea where you are going or where you are until the sun rises. Some would land on a beach, some would be in open sea further from their destination than when they started.

 

[nuuumannn]

something you cannot explain to anyone who hasn't been there.

Yep, agree wholeheartedly. It just reinforces just how unfeasible the entire venture would have been. In flat bottomed barges?!

Yes, I'm in sunny Nelson, a nice part of the world and a city in its own right, although a tiny one compared to European metropoli. It has a stretch of beach within the city and the airport is only five minutes drive from the centre; not a bad place at all. I lived in the UK for ten years and also lived in Germany and have travelled extensively in Eastern and Western Europe - as well as the rest of the world. There are parts of New Zealand where the weather changes as much as the Channel area; just spend some time on the west coast and you'll see it, arguably with wilder weather extremes. The surprising thing about the south coast of England is that the weather will be so pleasant and still, then gone so suddenly. It's never 'pleasant' on NZ's west coast.

 

[Peter Gunn]

Channel weather sounds reminiscent of the upper Great Lakes in North America, Lake Sailors use the same saying you all probably do, "Don't like the weather, wait five minutes".

I can attest to that, as a teenager I crewed (as a deck ape) one of the Boblo Island Amusement Park boats (SS Columbia) and even plodding up and down the Detroit River things could get pretty ugly at the drop of a hat. After one particularly bad return trip (last one of the day so in darkness), we were shipping green water down the main deck. Fractured an elbow just before we docked. Strangely, I've never been on a boat since.

I can't imagine trying to run a fleet of flat bottomed barges across the Channel, in retrospect, the Germans were wise not to attempt it.

 

[fastmongrel]

He He Nuuumannn, I am a veteran of many ferry crossings over more than 25 years, I was just asking if there was a record of the actual weather on the actual proposed dates.

15th to 27th Sept 1940 calm, sea state 2 to 3, visibilty good but with patches of Fog.
27th to 11th Oct strong northerly winds sea state reaching 6, visibility poor.
12th Oct to 20th light easterlies sea state 3 to 4, visibility excellent.
20th to 27th light easterlies sea state 2 to 3 patches of heavy fog.
27th Force 8 south westerly sea state 7 visiblity very poor.
November regular deep lows from the Atlantic coming changeable and blustery sea state generally 5 to 6.

 

[fastmongrel]

WMO Sea State Code Wave height Characteristics
Sea state, height, conditions.
0 0 metres (0 ft) Calm (glassy)
1 0 to 0.1 metres (0.00 to 0.33 ft) Calm (rippled)
2 0.1 to 0.5 metres (3.9 in to 1 ft 7.7 in) Smooth (wavelets)
3 0.5 to 1.25 metres (1 ft 8 in to 4 ft 1 in) Slight
4 1.25 to 2.5 metres (4 ft 1 in to 8 ft 2 in) Moderate
4 was the absolute maximum for loaded Barges in open water
5 2.5 to 4 metres (8 ft 2 in to 13 ft 1 in) Rough
6 4 to 6 metres (13 to 20 ft) Very rough
7 6 to 9 metres (20 to 30 ft) High
8 9 to 14 metres (30 to 46 ft) Very high
9 Over 14 metres (46 ft) Phenomenal

 

[pbehn]

15th to 27th Sept 1940 calm, sea state 2 to 3, visibilty good but with patches of Fog.
27th to 11th Oct strong northerly winds sea state reaching 6, visibility poor.
12th Oct to 20th light easterlies sea state 3 to 4, visibility excellent.
20th to 27th light easterlies sea state 2 to 3 patches of heavy fog.
27th Force 8 south westerly sea state 7 visiblity very poor.
November regular deep lows from the Atlantic coming changeable and blustery sea state generally 5 to 6.

Hey, there was one period of excellent visibility, what could go wrong. "Changeable and blustery" was exactly the sort of description that my Japanese colleagues asked me to explain, usually before a trip to UK, I never managed a decent description, but they all understood when they came back to France.

 

[fastmongrel]

I have been trying to find some historical tide data but the tides along the coast from Dover to Southampton seems to be missing for the war years.

There is also daylight length the figures for Dover 2017 but they should be roughly the same for 1940
Sept 1st......13h 30m
Sept 15th.....12h 39 m
Sept 30th.....11h 41m
Oct 15th.......10h 43m
Oct 31st........9h 45m

During the night those chaps in Blue will be running round the Channel being beastly to the Germans.

 

[pbehn]

WMO Sea State Code Wave height Characteristics
Sea state, height, conditions.
0 0 metres (0 ft) Calm (glassy)
1 0 to 0.1 metres (0.00 to 0.33 ft) Calm (rippled)
2 0.1 to 0.5 metres (3.9 in to 1 ft 7.7 in) Smooth (wavelets)
3 0.5 to 1.25 metres (1 ft 8 in to 4 ft 1 in) Slight
4 1.25 to 2.5 metres (4 ft 1 in to 8 ft 2 in) Moderate
4 was the absolute maximum for loaded Barges in open water
5 2.5 to 4 metres (8 ft 2 in to 13 ft 1 in) Rough
6 4 to 6 metres (13 to 20 ft) Very rough
7 6 to 9 metres (20 to 30 ft) High
8 9 to 14 metres (30 to 46 ft) Very high
9 Over 14 metres (46 ft) Phenomenal

Some info on channel tides from the swimming association web site.

Several factors affect the tides in the English Channel. The Dover Strait is renowned for having strong tidal flows with a large rise and fall in water from high to low tide. There are two types of tide, the 'EBB' tide and the 'FLOOD' tide.

Ebb Tide: This tide comes from the North East down the Channel towards Folkestone. It begins 4.5 hours after high water to 2 hours before high water (Dover).

Flood Tide: Travels up the Channel from the South West towards the North Sea. It occurs 1.5 hours before high tide to 4.5 hours after high water (Dover).

An important factor in tidal control is the moon. When the sun, moon and earth are aligned the tides are at their maximum strength and are known as SPRING tides. When the moon is at 90° to the earth, we have weak tides called NEAP tides. The tides alternate in a two weekly cycle. High water during spring tides is at roughly midday and midnight (GMT) and high water during Neaps is in the region of 6am and 6pm (GMT). The mean height for a high water Spring tide is 6.8 metres and a Neap tide is 5.3 metres.

The preferred time for swims to take place is on the Neap tides as the period before the tide turns is much longer and the tidal flow, especially at the Cape, is much slower. Your pilot however, is very knowledgeable in the way the tides work and therefore advice from him is crucial. There are places where the tide will help your swim and other areas where you will be hindered.

You can probably now understand, why time is critical on your swim. If you spend a lot of time on your feeds; for example, 3 minutes for a feed every hour then on a 14-hour swim you will have lost 42 minutes. This can be crucial towards the end of your swim when the tide is about to change. You may think you are nearing the end of your swim, when in fact the tide has suddenly changed direction and is now moving against you. This can result in a further 2 hours or more to land rather than the 20 minute distance it may seem to the naked / goggled eye.

 

[michaelmaltby]

great post .... thanks

 

[pbehn]

great post .... thanks

I found it very interesting. The straight line distance is 21 miles and the record is 7 hrs which is similar to the 2.5Kts of a towed barge however the longest time ever for a single crossing was in 2010 when Jackie Cobell took 28 hrs 44 mins and swam 65 miles in total to cross the 21 miles due to very strong currents.

From this it is clear you cannot set off when you want, in some conditions you shorten your crossing time by staying on the beach. and waiting hours for the tides to change. If the wind is blowing up or down the channel then every six hours it changes from being with the tidal flow to being against it.

With a lot of planning the first wave may have got away with a disorderly arrival but after that it would be complete chaos with no input from the RN or UK land forces needed.

 

[michaelmaltby]

makes one, yet again, appreciate the thought and planning that went into Over Lord in 1944

 

[pbehn]

makes one, yet again, appreciate the thought and planning that went into Over Lord in 1944

Even then one of the Mulberry harbours was blown away on Omaha in a storm force six to 8 on June 19th.

 

[Juha2]

One good comprasion point is the German attemps to reinforce their air-landing troops on Crete By sea-borne troops on 21/22 May and 22/23 May 1941 and the RN actions against those two small convoys.

 

[Glider]

This is interesting the sea is pretty average but you can see that a barge being towed would be difficult to manage.

 

[swampyankee]

One other thing about weather: in the northern hemisphere, it tends to move west to east: Britain would know about the weather first. In those crappy squalls, the RN doesn't have as much worry about air attacks.

The RN would also put its destroyers to sea in weather that had German destroyers — which were much larger than the British — running for port.

 

[Koopernic]

One good comprasion point is the German attemps to reinforce their air-landing troops on Crete By sea-borne troops on 21/22 May and 22/23 May 1941 and the RN actions against those two small convoys.

German operations over Crete were severely compromised by detailed enigma decrypts. The British, Australian and New Zealand forces knew the exact drop zones of German paratroops and thus prepared ambushes right underneath the drop zones. The casualties of what were elite troops were massive and the Germans (Hitler personally) never allowed a large scale parachute assault again. Id say German Naval operations were similarly compromised even if the German Navy was more careful so probably no judgment can be made.