fastmongrel
1st Sergeant
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If the RAF had been defeated in the Battle of Britain
- Thread starter DogFather
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Dogwalker, which ever way you look at it the Royal Navy stopped the German's landing troops on Crete by sea and it doesn't matter if they did this by sinking the invasion fleet or making it turn back because the end result was the same. When the Germans eventually did land troops on Crete the battle was lost and in any case even this landing was only possible once the tiny port of Kastelli Kissamos had been captured. Had the Italian Navy been prepared to provide a realistic escort for the German ships as requested then things may have been different.
I am using Crete as an example of how difficult it would have been for the Germans to launch an invasion in the face of the Royal Navy.
I am using Crete as an example of how difficult it would have been for the Germans to launch an invasion in the face of the Royal Navy.
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Dogwalker
Senior Airman
That are 21.42 tons per day, the load of a single modern truck, or of a single 20 foot container, or of a small ship, or the load capacity of 430 men in a single time, or 43 men if they lift it 10 times in a day (hardly a hard day of work).
I think they were a little optimist.
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Dogwalker
Senior Airman
Every way you look at it the RN had to withdraw after two days of fight, and Crete was conquered by the Germans, in face of larger British forces, thanks to the air cover.
Infact the end result was that the Germans took Crete. It seems that someone tends to forget it.
It's interesting to wonder why, since the British troops were way more numerous, entrenched in a rough terrain, and better armed.
The 100,000 men of II Army Corps trapped at Demyansk had required no less than 300 tons of supplies per day.
Logistics
Four years later the Allied D-Day landings showed just how much material had to be landed continuously to maintain an amphibious invasion. The problem for the Germans was worse, as the German Army was mostly horse-drawn. One of its prime headaches would have been transporting thousands of horses across the Channel.[74] British intelligence calculated that the first wave of 11 divisions (including the airborne divisions) would require a daily average of 3,300 tons of supplies.[75] In fact in Russia in 1941, when engaged in heavy fighting, a single German infantry division required up to 1,100 tons of supplies a day[76], though a more usual figure would be 212-425 tons per day.[77] British intelligence further calculated that Folkestone, the largest harbour falling within the planned German landing zones, could handle 150 tons per day in the first week of the invasion (assuming all dockside equipment was successfully demolished and regular RAF bombing raids reduced capacity by 50%). Within seven days, maximum capacity was expected to rise to 600 tons per day, once German shore parties had made repairs to the quays and cleared the harbour of any blockships and other obstacles. This meant that, at best, the nine German infantry and two airborne divisions landed initially would receive less than 20% of the 3,300 tons of supplies they required each day through a port, and would have to rely heavily on whatever could be brought in directly over the beaches or air-dropped.[78]
The capture of Dover and its harbour facilities was expected to add another 800 tons per day, raising to 40% the amount of supplies brought in through ports, but this rested on the assumption of little or no interference from the Royal Navy and RAF with the German supply convoys shuttling between the Continent and the invasion beaches.
Wiki
Logistics
Four years later the Allied D-Day landings showed just how much material had to be landed continuously to maintain an amphibious invasion. The problem for the Germans was worse, as the German Army was mostly horse-drawn. One of its prime headaches would have been transporting thousands of horses across the Channel.[74] British intelligence calculated that the first wave of 11 divisions (including the airborne divisions) would require a daily average of 3,300 tons of supplies.[75] In fact in Russia in 1941, when engaged in heavy fighting, a single German infantry division required up to 1,100 tons of supplies a day[76], though a more usual figure would be 212-425 tons per day.[77] British intelligence further calculated that Folkestone, the largest harbour falling within the planned German landing zones, could handle 150 tons per day in the first week of the invasion (assuming all dockside equipment was successfully demolished and regular RAF bombing raids reduced capacity by 50%). Within seven days, maximum capacity was expected to rise to 600 tons per day, once German shore parties had made repairs to the quays and cleared the harbour of any blockships and other obstacles. This meant that, at best, the nine German infantry and two airborne divisions landed initially would receive less than 20% of the 3,300 tons of supplies they required each day through a port, and would have to rely heavily on whatever could be brought in directly over the beaches or air-dropped.[78]
The capture of Dover and its harbour facilities was expected to add another 800 tons per day, raising to 40% the amount of supplies brought in through ports, but this rested on the assumption of little or no interference from the Royal Navy and RAF with the German supply convoys shuttling between the Continent and the invasion beaches.
Wiki
Dogwalker
Senior Airman
So we now are at 150 tons a day, in a single port, in the best conditions for the British (assuming to have succesfully demolished all dockside) and assuming regular RAF bombing raids (hardly in this scenario), for a week.
That's a little more convincing.
Then there was what the Germans could beach with boats seized on the French coast.
That's a little more convincing.
Then there was what the Germans could beach with boats seized on the French coast.
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Buffnut, I think what you are talking about is largely a conspiracy theory. Yes there was an element within the Tory party and the aristocracy that leant towards the Nazi's but in reality both the Tory party and the aristocracy were made up of old fashioned imperialists who knew they would not have no future under the Nazis. In addition to this Britain was not a single party state where the tory party could do just whatever it wanted, you have to remember that Churchill's view on continuing the war with Germany had the support of the majority of the house of commons and any leader that stepped forward with the intention of surrender would have received a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons and so would have been forced to resign as Chamberlain did. Had Chamberlain understood that the House of Commons wished for a defeatist Prime Minister then he would have recommended one to the King instead of the most defiant and war like person in British politics that he could find Winston Churchill. As the Tory Party was split between Churchill and Halifax at this time the balance of power in the Commons was held by The Labour Party, and the Labour Party being socialists understood what would happen to them should Britain surrender. The King under these circumstances would have had no other option than to refuse to accept a defeatist Prime Minister.
Like other people have said invasion was really a bluff and Churchill's argument that Britain could be defended was proved right by history.
Like other people have said invasion was really a bluff and Churchill's argument that Britain could be defended was proved right by history.
Dogwalker, the Germans seized Crete by air not by sea. There was no way the Germans could have invaded Britain by air in the same way as they invaded Crete by air as the Germans would have been facing a much larger well armed, supplied and mobile force with good communications on familiar ground with at least some air support. The Germans could never have maintained local superiority long enough for its airborne forces to be relieved by the main seaborne force.
And don't forget that the government in 1940 was a coalition. The Labour and Liberal parties were both part of that government, formed following Chamberlain's resignation on 10th May. You are right about the prospects of some of these men under Nazi rule. For example the minister of Labour and National Service was Ernest Bevin, a socialist and founder of the Transport and General Workers Union. He, and others like Herbert Morrison (who had a shelter named after him) and Clement Attlee (a fierce critic of appeasement) would never have made a deal with the Nazis.
Whether this government would have collapsed seems unlikely to me, given British constitutional politics. A coalition would have continued with or without Churchill. This is how a mature democracy works. The Germans with their one party system and a leadership who for the most part had never travelled outside Germany simply could not grasp this.
Cheers
Steve
Pinsong, when I talk of the civilians fighting the Germans I do not mean this in the way you assume I mean it. Yes I think it is safe to expect that lone civilians or small groups of civilians would have opposed an invasion either directly or indirectly, this could have taken many forms such as sabotage, small scale killings and hit and run ambushes with petrol bombs and hunting rifles etc, I am not talking about massed ranks of men, women and children with broom handles.
The majority of civilian resistance would have been carried out by the Home Guard. By the time of any German invasion in September or later the Home Guard was much stronger than when it was formed straight after Dunkirk by this it had weapons and prepared positions. Granted it had no heavy weapons and it's bunkers etc were much more modest than the Atlantic walls, but they were not designed to repel an invasion only to slow it down.
The majority of civilian resistance would have been carried out by the Home Guard. By the time of any German invasion in September or later the Home Guard was much stronger than when it was formed straight after Dunkirk by this it had weapons and prepared positions. Granted it had no heavy weapons and it's bunkers etc were much more modest than the Atlantic walls, but they were not designed to repel an invasion only to slow it down.
Shortround6
Major General
Back to the omnipotent Luftwaffe?
You can sink 500 ton ships with 7.9mm machine guns?
I guess the rest of the world really screwed up.
And how long does it take to sink or severely damage 95% or the British minesweepers? a day, a week, a month?
How rough does it have to be? The bombings and strafings are only during good weather, artillery is 24/7. British had rail lines and paved roads, move supplies at night.
I do like the shallow hills bit very funny. Looking north from Dover harbor.
Or North over the port area:
Actually no but you keep making references to short distances like
50km is 31 miles. But the areas that need mining are more like 100 KM or more.
Define effective and the fact that a mine field sank one or two ships does NOT prove effectiveness of an entire "field"
and please tell us what the worse conditions were? what resources were used and how long it took the lay the fields.
The last is really important as the clock is ticking. WHEN do the Germans win the BoB in this scenario? Sept 1st, Sept 15th, Sept 30th? Some time in Oct? What happens in this "WIN". British loose control over south east England or the entire RAF deserts to Ireland with their aircraft and sits out the war? Or the British maintain control over Plymouth and Hull?
How long do the Germans have to set up their mine fields before the transports move? 2 days, two weeks, a month?
and using what? Aircraft and small fishing ships?
Part of the problem in Crete was supply, both in Crete and in Norway some British ships had fired ALL of their AA ammo and good portions of the their other ammo. But then they didn't have the German 7.9mm machine guns did they?
Back to the ticking clock thing? how many Bren guns were coming out of the factory ever week, how many 2pdr AT guns and so on? How soon before the fall weather gets increasingly nasty?
And where is the Kriegsmarine?
Dogwalker
Senior Airman
Really? I think that you have to.
Cause at Crete the British choose to fight worse than they could do?
And this ability endured for two days. Or we have to think that the ship lost were only to make up a facade resistance having decided in advance that the isle couldn't be defended?
Dogwalker
Senior Airman
Those were their plannings. The attempted landings were a side action. But someone said that the way the RN deal for two days, facing heavy losses, with a side action is the demostration of the impossibility of something.
Shortround6
Major General
Some ships shot off around 400 rounds per 4 in AA gun, magazines were empty, Sticking around when you can put up some sort of defense is one thing, sitting there and being bombed without being able to shoot back is another.
Dogwalker
Senior Airman
No, let's remain with the omnipotent British sweepers.
A fleet of which could be hidden under the bed obviously.
In not conquering the world with fleets of minesweepers?
Something more that is usually called "a plain"? Sorry, but that's the terrain back of Dover is.
And hide during the day, while Germans sleep I imagine.
Interesting wiew of the cliffs, thank you. A shame that all the terrain around is what's usually called "a plain"
Given that large formations of vessels have preferred to stay away from minefields, for their effectiveness we have to see what happened to the smaller formations that we have found themselves into them. You may think that a ship is more resistant to explosions if it is in the company of others if you want.
While in UK ships doesn't need to be supplied? Or you think to do this in operation zone?
Oh, I dont' know it. Who had taken the example of Crete probably think somewere in the Chinese sea.
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Surely if any of this was feasible the Germans would have pressed on in the BoB to eliminate the RAF and Then launching Op Sea lion. Don't loose sight of Hitlers objectives of this war, you don't just cut a crippled country some slack in the hope they will surrender or join forces only to have to continue the fight against a country that has then had chance to rebuild its forces in the meantime. Just look at the mammoth task that we had keeping the country supplied logistically when we had it fully under British occupation. The sheer logistics of a landing on British shores would have made it impossible to pull off and mount full scale invasion. You can safely say if it could have been done it would have been.
I believe you can also rule out any question of a British Government willing to co-operate with the Nazi's coming into power. As has been said in previous post's, it would not have been allowed by the king and certainly not by a British Public that I suspect would fight to defend the country that has been successfully defended so many times before.
Maybe I'm just being patriotic but I can't see that there was ever a chance of us talking German and driving on the wrong side of the road! By sea, by Air or by foot, we would have repelled it with whatever we had available at the time. Just ask the Spanish who tried it tried it the time before.
Cheers Chris
I believe you can also rule out any question of a British Government willing to co-operate with the Nazi's coming into power. As has been said in previous post's, it would not have been allowed by the king and certainly not by a British Public that I suspect would fight to defend the country that has been successfully defended so many times before.
Maybe I'm just being patriotic but I can't see that there was ever a chance of us talking German and driving on the wrong side of the road! By sea, by Air or by foot, we would have repelled it with whatever we had available at the time. Just ask the Spanish who tried it tried it the time before.
Cheers Chris
The Home Guard had far more weapons than commonly believed.
Churchill proposed setting them up in 1939. He envisioned 500,000 men. In fact 1,500,000 had joined by the end of July 1940. By the same date 495,000 .303 service rifles had been issued to the Home Guard (Mostly P14s).
Britain also purchased 500,000 .30 M1917 rifles from the US and began issuing these to the Home Guard in July, at first as well as, and later to replace, the .303 rifles.
Churchill proposed setting them up in 1939. He envisioned 500,000 men. In fact 1,500,000 had joined by the end of July 1940. By the same date 495,000 .303 service rifles had been issued to the Home Guard (Mostly P14s).
Britain also purchased 500,000 .30 M1917 rifles from the US and began issuing these to the Home Guard in July, at first as well as, and later to replace, the .303 rifles.
The only way I can think of that the Germans could of pulled it off was to carry out airborne landings behind the key ports and beaches. Cut off the retreat of forces in ports and prevent total distruction. You would cause the government to withdraw from London as a precaution against failed defence, you would at least have access to the ports to bring in the supplies, you have removed the terrain factor ( who cares if google earth paints a nice scenic picture. I wouldn't fancy trying to scale the white cliffs under fire to reach the "plains" behind). You still have to deal with the RN but with ports already under control how will they resupply? You could the turn the vast numbers of British Minelayers against the British and try and halt the RN for a period long enough to setup a decent beachhead. (Still is there enough JU-52's available? no).
I just don't think in reality there is a scenario that would work but this is how I would propose it if we're to send my German Army to the slaughter on British soil.
Cheers Chris
I just don't think in reality there is a scenario that would work but this is how I would propose it if we're to send my German Army to the slaughter on British soil.
Cheers Chris
Something more that is usually called "a plain"? Sorry, but that's the terrain back of Dover is. A shame that all the terrain around is what's usually called "a plain"
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You've got to go up the cliffs to get to the plain (or downs as we call it). The only other way out is as originally described, up the valley that road takes along the line of the buildings in the photo you've posted.
I once had the pleasure of standing off Dover for eight hours on a ferry which, despite the efforts of a couple of tugs, could not make it in due to the weather. I can't tell you how much fun that was. I believe I was probably one of a handful of people who were not sick and, worse, the bar ran out of beer.
The Germans were going to need a good window of good weather to commit military suicide in.
Cheers
Steve
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