The 39th, 9th and eventually the 80th were the tipping point and it started in December 42'. These units gained aerial superiority over New Guinea when they started operating P-38s. I think you'll find that transition happened a lot quicker than 1944 although V fighter command was never able to get their hands on enough P-38s and for a spell, the 348th had P-47s (Neil Kearby's unit)
The
9th FS was the first unit of the 49th FG which was flying P-38s. The other two fighter squadrons (7th and
8th) were still flying P-40s well into 1944. Bong and McGuire flew for the 9th FS (and also breifly for the 39th FS, an operational training / transition unit). Ninth fighter squadron was also flying P-47s for a while in early 1944.
All three squadrons of the 49th FG were 'elite' units and did very well. Aside from Bong, McGuire, and Gerald Johnson, who were outliers, the 9th FS had about the same rate of success.
The 9th FS had 15 Aces (including Bong, McGuire and Johnson and one more double ace), the 8th FS had 14 Aces (including 3 double aces), and the 7th FS had 8 aces including one double-ace.
Robert DeHaven (14 victories) who flew with the 7th Fighter Squadron and scored about half of his victories in the P-40 and half in the P-38, noted that the main difference was really the range, the P-38 could be used on the offensive at further distances beyond Southern New Guinea. The P-38 had the potential to be a game changer but it was not around in enough numbers to really make the difference, and not enough pilots had the skills to deal with all of the challenges of flying it, at least until after that tipping point. A lot of the heavy lifting (and eventual combat success) in New Guinea specifically and South Pacific more generally was with P-40s, Wildcats, and P-39s.
80th FS was originally flying P-39s (P-400s) and then went back to P-40s, converting to P-38s in March 43.
I think the F4U Corsairs were making a difference fairly early as well (I think VMF 124 was first, early in 43) though in similarly small numbers to the P-38s.
The Hellcats were not around until fall of 1943. The P-47s were around by early 44 though I'm not sure how much difference they made, P-51s did make a difference but I think they were also arriving in 44.