parsifal
Colonel
The Mediterranean campaign in this period is indeed interesting, but the gambit of directly comparing nominal Italo-German air strengths in that campaign to project results in Pacific War 'what ifs' is fatallly flawed. And you, being a good student of the Pacific War, already undercut this idea yourself in your previous post by correctly pointing out the non-comparability of typical Italo-German v Japanese air unit anti-ship capability in this period. As Vincenzo also suggested, the numbers also don't look exactly right either, but that's secondary. The Italo-German forces were more numerous, but a relatively small proportion were skilled anti-ship units. The bombers missed a lot even in cases where not directly interfered with by British a/c from the carriers or Malta.
My point was that in fact in the Med the allies were outnumbered in the air 8:1, whereas in this scenario, they would at maximum be outnumbered 3.5:1. I acknowledged the superior skills of the japanese aviators in anti-shipping operations, but is that enough to make a shortfall of 5-700 a/c. Incidentally, I think i know why the figures appear high...they are looking at two operations, one in the eastern basin the other in the western basin. There are two operations described, hence i think the sources are quoting the airforces based in Sicily, southern italy and Crete and available for operations.
One case where the there can be no doubt about the proficiency of the crews were the attacks by FKX on Illustrious Jan 41. There were 248 a/c directly attached to the Korps, plus approximately another 60 RA a/c in support. These a/c were tasked specifiically to sink the carrier. Despit those numbers, and repeated attacks on the damaged ship, they failed to do that. the biggest single attack was by 48 a/c from memory, and well within fighter range, just 60 miles off the Italian Coast. Despite misdireecting their CAP, and taking 7 bombn hits, 3 of them in excess if 1000 lbs, they failed to sink the carrier.
Even though the japanese were far more likley to put a larger proportion of their forces corectly over the target, they would still be hard pressed to get more than 50% there at any given time. They would suffer similar problemes in concentration of effort just like everyones land based air had when it came to carrier operations. Finding the target is at least half the battle.
The other major problem is the non-comparability of the missions and geographical set up. The success of carrier escorted convoys for *part* of those journeys to Malta importantly depended on the carriers staying far enough from the Axis air bases for the short legged Axis fighter escorts, the German 109's especially, to have minimal if any persistence over the convoy. German Med theater Bf109 units in this period did not fail to noticeably affect any of those attacks because they lost fierce battles with FAA fighters. There were hardly any engagements between the 109's and the FAA a/c, and only a handful between other Axis fighters and the FAA fighters. The 109's were too far from their bases to be effective.
There are enough exceptions to this broad statement to bury it. I would agree that in the majority of instances carriers attempted to stay out of range of the SE fighters, but the geography of the med is such that there were also many occasions when the FAA did have to fight or deal with Me 109s. The problem was not that the 109s could not often be at the scene.....they often were....the problem was that a carrier battle required a certain amount of loiter time....aircraft just hanging around as the attack was deployed and executed. 109s did not have the endurance to deal with that. 110s did however, although they tended to be used as bomb trucks most of the time.
And, the convoys had to carry on without carrier cover after the carriers turned back. This worked out ultimately satisfactorily in the Pedestal case: merchant ship losses after the carrier turn back were heavy but ultimately not heavy enough to starve out Malta; although they would have been if the success of Harpoon (for the Axis anti-merchant ship effort) had been repeated.
The merchant ships were never left without cover of some description The carriers were pulled back after the Sardinian narrows had been negotiated, as the convoy pressed on to be within Beafighter rangeand then Spitfire range later in the morning
.But in any case a single carrier supporting a pair of capital ships seeking to intercept enemy invasion shipping is a quite different scenario. The capital ships have to close to essentially zero range; practically speaking the carrier has to come almost all the way with them. I can see why a carrier would be highly welcomed by the Force Z commander if determined to attempt this mission at all cost, but I don't see how that carrier or the capital ships could ultimately survive such a mission against the Japanese forces arrayed against them
This statement is, with respect, rubbish. Lets look at the historical situation just to show how wide of the mark it is...Scouts for Force Z came within 5 miles of the invasion convoy (with the battleships some 26 miles) behind them before Phillips decided to abandon the operation. He made his decision because it was evident that the landings had already occurred, and he could not identify the force that was defending the transports. At that time, the Japanese BBs were not directly attached to the invasion force and were standing off by at least a days sailing. The direct escort consisted of 1 Ca 2 CLs and 6 or 8 DDs. If the carrier had been attached, he would have received pertinent up to date information on the enemy forces and their dispositions. He would have realized that a milk run awaited Fze Z if he had committedf them. He could have used the 24 strike aircraft (night capabale as the strikes against bismarck had shown). PoW and Repulse could have gone in, sank the escort and convoy7 and be heading home for tea with the carrier never seriously troubled by any of this. british TF were rpeatedly used in this way in 1940-41 in the med, without the slightest effect on either the TF ofr the Carrier groups, only when tied to a low moving convoy on a predictable path was there ever even the slightest trouble for the FAA.
.We can also look at JNAF v RN surface units situations in the early Pac War fighting and see that the JNAF is likely to score hits at a much higher rate than Italo-German attackers usually did. If we bring the LW and RA to the Pacific, or equip the JNAF with only very short range, though otherwise formidable, single engine fighters (Bf109F's), or if we change to the scenario to partial cover for an Allied convoy, then run in alone or with air support from Malaya...all those scenarios might have varied and interesting outcomes. But the scenario at hand, add a single typical FAA CAG to Force Z attempting to destroy Japanese invasion shipping, and further assume as the thread does that a pair of (old) fast Japanese BB's and DD/CL screen would engage, then IMO the outcome isn't subject to a lot of doubt as far as British losses, assuming the British commander is intent on pressing home his attack: the British would lose the carrier *and* the two big gun ships
I disagree completely. And there is no evidence to support any of the claims you are making here. The limited numbers of Zeroes available....just 25 precluded any heavy escort for their bombers. These zeroes in any event were tasked to fly continuous cover for the convoy. so, the japanese strike aircraft...a/c with a top speed (unloaded) of just 230 knots, are going to be shot out of the sky with ease. if Zeroes are available, the equation does change, that i will grant you, but that is not what is being claimed by you, or anyone else.....the claim is that with the tools at hand the japanese would defeat the carrier. They could not.
Moreover, you are claiming that that the IJN, with no heavy ships (remember the two BBs and most of the escort were not in direct contact with the convoy as they had detacjhed after the landings) and just a force of three cruisers and 8 DDs at most, could defeat 2 battleships and 24 strike aircraft. I doubt it.
Although, the scenario would present more difficulty for the Japanese, probably result in heavier JNAF a/c losses, and possibly warship losses, though it's doubtful that would justify a British carrier loss, since no Japanese carrier would be at risk.
You have presented no evidence that I find reasonable to support the claim that the carrier was likley to be lost, just opinion. The fact that that opinion is running counter to nearly every experience the RN had in the central basin before that doesnt seem to worry you. Sorry, but I cannot accept your hypothesis on this occasion. if the carrier had been present, and fully worked up, it would have been a bloodbath against the japanese IMO.