Manpower correlation between Red Army and German Army from June 1941 to end of 1943

[Juha]

Moved this off-topic part of discussion from
http://www.ww2aircraft.net/forum/aviation/small-airforces-going-war-what-would-you-do-18408-3.html here


Soren Message #38

"The Soviet army contained close to 5 times as many men as the German army had in the east, plus the fact that millions of Soviet combattens have never been listed as actual soldiers, yet they fought alongside the soldiers.

I think it is pretty telling that over 12 million Soviet soldiers were killed during WW2, plus a little over 1 million western Allies, and for that 3.25 million German soldiers had to pay with their lives. 80% of the German losses were on the eastern front, so thats ~2.65 million Germans for 12+ million Russians, which is not even counting the millions of unlisted Soviet troops. Anyway that's a 5:1 ratio."

Juha Message #39

"Are you really sure that in 1941 the Soviet Army engaged combat against axis had close to 5 times as many men as the German army had in the east? Part of Red Army stayed in South and in East, the fact that is sometimes forgot. And as large segment of German soldiers belonged in any given time to Replacement Army it was same in other side. Are you sure that you are not comparing apples to oranges ie the whole Soviet Army to the German army in the east?

3,25 million German soldiers, don't forget at least 230 000 Austrian soldiers, they also belonged to Wehrmacht, I cannot remember were Sudeten and Elsass-Lothringeans soldiers included to the figure of 3,25million German soldiers. I have seen figures of 3,25 million German soldiers died but that 3,71 million serving in Wehrmacht lost their lives, that incl Austrians, non German and Volksdeutsch Waffen-SS troops, also IMHO Sudeten and Elsass-Lothringerian soldiers. And do you really think that other axis forces didn't kill a single Red Army soldiers?"



W. Victor Madeja in his The Russo-German War. 25 January to 8 May 1945 (1987) on p.73
gives following manpower figures on Eastern Front

at the end of June 41
Red Army at the European Front 4.7 million
German Army at the Eastern Front (troops of Germany's allies and co-combatants are not incl., that true through this table) 3.3 million

Dec 41
Red Army at the European Front 2.3 million
German Army at the Eastern Front, number not given

July 42
Red Army at the European Front 3.3 million
German Army at the Eastern Front 2.7 million

Nov 42
Red Army at the European Front 4.5 million
German Army at the Eastern Front 2.9 million

July 43
Red Army at the European Front 5.1 million
German Army at the Eastern Front 3.2 million

Oct 43
Red Army at the European Front 5.5 million
German Army at the Eastern Front 2.6 million

So according to Madeja Red Army not got 2:1 manpower superiority over German Army in forces fighting on Eastern Front first time until Autumn 43 and even then only if we leave out troops of Germany's allies and co-combatants (this term incl at least Finland)

Soren
Two other questions

Soren Message #36

"... But the Soviets were saved by their harsh winter, the sheer size of their country and by refusing to give a number of cities esp. the city of Stalingrad, forcing the war to transpire into bitter house to house, sewer to sewer fighting."

I agree that harsh Soviet winter, sheer size of SU and its primitive infrastructure had significant impact on war on Eastern Front but are you saying that Germans were so stupid that they didn't understand that heavily held cities were best to bypass, if possible, and leave later troops to handle them? Soviet understood that already in Nov 42, when their inner pincers failed to force they ways into Stalingrad they didn't turn back their outer pincers but allowed them to continue deeper into Germans' rear.
Same for ex during Soviet big summer offensive in Belo-Russia, their mobile first echelon troops simply bypassed heavily fortified and held towns like Vitebsk, Mogilev and Bobruisk and struck deeper into German rear and succeeded to eliminate much of Army Group Center.


And still waiting an answer to this question, among others:

Soren
Quote:" As for the Finns, well their military was well equipped in many areas…"

Would you give for ex. 4 key areas in which Finnish army was well equipped at the eve of Winter War?

Juha

 

[parsifal]

German manpower totals by year, were as follows (figures in millions)
(source: Ersatzheer - The German Replacement Army 1939-45 Victor Madej
1939: 4.2
1940: 5.9
1941: 7.2
1942: 8.6
1943: 9.5
1944: 9.1
1945: 7.6

Mobilization rates by year were as follows

1939: 4.3
1940: 1.8
1941: 1.8
1942: 1.6
1943: 1.6
1944: 1.2
1945: 1.3
TOTAL 12.0
Casualty rates by year (unrecoverable losses, dead, missing, captured, discharged) were as follows

1939: 0.03
1940: 0.2
1941: 0.4
1942: 1.0
1943: 1.7
1944: 4.7
1945: 6.1

I cannot break down Soviet figures on such a detailed level, however, according to Ellis ("WWII- A statistical analysis") the Soviet military mobilization was around 26 million.

Of these 11 million were killed or missing, and 6 million were taken prisoner. One would be tempted to say that total Soviet unrecoverable casualties were 17 million, however this number does not take into account the Soviet POWs murdered by the Germans, which amounts to some 4.8 million, according to studies by Rutger and others. Thus total Soviet military unrecoverable casualties are approximately 12.2 million. To that must be added the 6-10 million civilian casualties, again mostly murdered by the Germans. This figure also includes almost a million Soviets who were drafted into the German military, the so-called Hiwis, and of course traitor Vlasovs pro-German Russian army

Against this, the germans lost a total 6.1 million. Ellis estimates that over 80% of german military casualties occurred on the Eastern Front, so that means that German losses on the eastern front were around 4.88 million. The ratio of German military losses to Soviet military losses (excluding the losses by murder whilst incarcerated) is 4.88: 12.2, or 40% of those suffered by the Russians (again, excluding the illegal murders carried out by the Germans during the war).

The ratio of manpower totals for the two belligerents is also worth noting. Because of the coarsness of Soviet data, we can really only compare the totals, but this is still worthwhile….the germans mobilized 12 million into her armed forces, to the Soviet 26 million, or approximately 46%.

Studies by Dunnigan and later by Dupuy suggest that the on average, every German soldier was the equivalent of 1.35 Soviet soldiers in the war. If that is correct then it becomes fairly easy to see why the germans did not win….despite their obvious qualitative advantages, they simply were not good eneough to offset the numerical advantages enjoyed by the Russians

 

[Glider]

Can I thank you both as there is a lot of information here that is new to me. Can I ask you both to what degree you believe the lend lease material, in particular the logistical assistance given to Russia made a difference.

The war in the East was to a large degree a war of logistics and both Russia and Germany had problems in this area. If the Russians had not had the assistance from the USA and British Commonwealth, it would presumably have slowed them down to some degree. This in time could have bought Germany time which might (in theory) have been enough.

 

[parsifal]

The contribution of lend lease in terms of materiel is pretty well documented. The US supplied over 300000 trucks alone (more than the entire wartime production in Germany, in late 43-44. More than 15000 aircraft, and huge amount of rolling stock and locomotives. But all of these are actually less important than the delivery of sufficient foodstuffs to keep the entire Soviet military machine fed and clothed for more than two years. The allies also supplied farm machinery and huge quantities of medicines. These were critical to the Soviet victory in my opinion, moreso than the tanks and planes that were supplied

 

[Soren]

The official OKW figure is 3.25 million German soldiers KIA MIA. (Soviet soldiers fighting for the Wehrmacht arent listed though) The wounded figure is much higher. Counting wounded captured the Germans had well over 8 million casualties, while the Soviets then suffered around 25 to 27 million casualties.

However according to more modern rsearch the amount of Soviet soldiers KIA MIA is right now at over 16.7 million and it's rising as new graves are discovered.

Counting all men who fought for the Wehrmacht, including Soviet enlisted troops, the amount KIA MIA is now estimated to around 4.5 to 4.9 million.

 

[Glider]

The contribution of lend lease in terms of materiel is pretty well documented. The US supplied over 300000 trucks alone (more than the entire wartime production in Germany, in late 43-44. More than 15000 aircraft, and huge amount of rolling stock and locomotives. But all of these are actually less important than the delivery of sufficient foodstuffs to keep the entire Soviet military machine fed and clothed for more than two years. The allies also supplied farm machinery and huge quantities of medicines. These were critical to the Soviet victory in my opinion, moreso than the tanks and planes that were supplied

Thanks, thats basically what I understood.

 

[parsifal]

The official figures of 3.25 million are almost univerally dismissed these days. OKH falsified its records enmasse to placate Hitler as to the true state of the german military. Far more accurate figures exist in the pay records of the Ersatzheer, and in the daily situation reports of the red and black books, produced by the army groups and army level commands. These show a far more accurate picture of the true level of German casualties on the east front. Studies by Rutger and others are conclusive and show that german military casulaties for the eastern front are approaching the 5 million mark.

Soviet miliatry casualties excluding the murders stand at 12.2 million, and nonmiliatry deaths at somewhere in the vicinity of 10 million. total miliatry and nonmiliatry deaths in the Soviet Union were 23.6 million of which more than 10 million were murders by the Nazis, or traitors working for the Germans.

The figures of 3.25 have been conclusively shown as erroneous. If they had been correct, the germans would have won on the eastern front by a very wide margin. I am surprised that people still believe these figures to be correct

 

[Soren]

The official figures of 3.25 million are almost univerally dismissed these days. OKH falsified its records enmasse to placate Hitler as to the true state of the german military.

The problem with this claim is that it is baseless, there is no reliable source for it. There is no reason to belief any documents were falsified, esp. considering that such a thing would hurt the crucial statistical analasys's needed to effectively assess wether certain losses were sustainable or not and how to replace them.

Also you must understand that the 3.25 million figure is for KIA MIA only, it doesn't include wounded or captured, that included the Germans casualty rate is at 8.1 million or more.

The Soviets loss records show around 12 million soldiers KIA MIA, but a lot of men in the Soviet armed forces weren't even listed, and millions of irregulars fought for the Soviets as-well. And that coupled with recent discoveries of mass graves have led many experts to conclude that the Soviets lost a total of around 16.7 million combattants KIA MIA. The listed figure of wounded Soviet soldiers is in excess of 14 million, while in actuality it is believed to be much higher. So the total amount of casualties suffered by the red army numbers around 25 to 30million, if wounded are counted as-well.

 

[parsifal]

Can you explain the discrepancies between the erstazheers records, which were not shown to Hitler, the situation reports of the red and black books, which were also strictly retained as "inhouse" documents, and the official OKH records, which were shown to Hitler, and which dont reconcile to the wehrmachts own records that were never shown to the Fuhrer. There was at least one instance that I know of where an intelligence officer (Gehlen) was ordered shot by Hitler for his temerity to giving an accurate report on the casualty rates. it was only the direct intervention by Guderian himself that saved gehlen from the firing squad.....with that kind of rapport, it should come as no surprise that the "official" records are unreliable.

One does not need to go outside German records to discover the great lie that is the OKH daily reports. As I said, the reports by the Erstazheer, and the frontline commands themselves give a far more accurate picture in my opinion.

You have mentioned these figures of 16.7 million several times, but I have not seen any credible sources that come anywhere near that figure. What is your source for this claim, and is it verifiable???

 

[Soren]

Only around 12 million Soviet soldiers who were KIA MIA are verifiable Parsifal, but the problem is that many more unlisted men have been found dead. The 16.7 million figure is merely a guesstimate made by several experts after the recent discovery of mass graves in the former Soviet Union.

As for the "Gehlen" incident, never heard of it, can you tell me your source for that ? Otherwise we're just running circles.

By the way, you should take a look at Kirosheev's figures, there the total casualty list for Soviet soldiers, wounded, captured killed included is 29+ million.

 

[Seawitch]

Only around 12 million Soviet soldiers who were KIA MIA are verifiable Parsifal, but the problem is that many more unlisted men have been found dead. The 16.7 million figure is merely a guesstimate made by several experts after the recent discovery of mass graves in the former Soviet Union.

In Stalin's world statistics would take a lot of believing, I've always felt that millions of his own victims were stuffed into the casualty figures.
In the years leading up to the war people who had been shot or died in captivity were being explained away to families as 'detained indefinitely without the right to correspondence.
People close to Stalin were being air brushed out of photos....and...and....Churchill said 'Never trust statistics unless you fiddled the figures yourself!
Sounds like good advice!

 

[Juha]

Parsifal
thanks for your figures!

W. Victor Madeja in his The Russo-German War. 25 January to 8 May 1945 (1987) on p.73
gives also following manpower figures for Total Soviet Armed Forces

at the end of June 41: 9.0 million (after mobilization],
Dec 41: 6.9 million

July 42: 10.7 million

Nov 42: 12.4 million

July 43: 12.9 million

Oct 43: 13.2 million

July 44: 12.9 million

Dec 44: 12.4 million

May 45: 13.3 million


Helge Seppälä in Puna-armeijasta sotilasmahdiksi writes that 22.6.1941 Soviet Union had in arms over 5 million men of which 2.7 million were stationed in border military districts. On 1.1.45 Soviet Union armed forces total strength was 11 556 000 men, of which 6 532 000 men served in field armies and air armies, not all operated against Axis.

Soren
What OKW figures? I have seen 3,25 million dead German soldiers in tables which handle population changes. That figure means in fact citizens of Germany who died while serving in armed forces, 230 000 Austrians, who died while serving in Wehrmacht are given under Austria's population losses and in fact IMHO Elsass-Lothringenians, who died while serving in Wehrmacht, are probably given under French losses, after all they had been French citizens before the war and would have been French citizen after the war, so in this connection that is logical.

And
From Wehrwissenschaftliche Rundschau 12/9 September 1962 gave under heading DOKUMENTATION
Verluste der deutschen Wehrmacht (Heer, Kriegsmarine, Luftwaffe) vom 1.9.1939 bis 31.1.1945 Notice that last very bloody 3 months and one week are not included

1.810.061 died because enemy action, 191.338 because accidents, sickness etc; 1.902.704 MIA and POW, so altogether 3.904.103. Sources given to these figures are O.K.H, O.K.M, O.K.L and O.K.W.


Yes, Kirosheev's figure for Soviet total military losses is 29,629,205, but it incl those who died in non-combat causes and those taken out of line more or less permanently because of sicknesses and frostbites etc. Irrecoverable losses, which incl those who died in non-combat causes and PoWs, are 11,273,026. this figure doesn't incl. those died during Manchurian operations in Aug-Sept 45

 

[Juha]

Hello Gilder
LL made significant contribution. Firstly LL vehicles incresed significantly mobility of Red Army, which made possible deep attacks, which had already been significant component of Soviet pre-war doctrine.
Also imports of metals, especially light alloys, had significant impact. Also locomotives and rails, they allowed SU heavy metal industry to concentrate to produce tanks and guns.
Also some a/c types were significant, P-39s, B-25s and A-20s for ex made important contributions. Soviets also liked Valentine tank which they considered as a light tank, so the appreciated its small size, easy to conceal, 60mm armour and in last version, 76,2mm canon, even if it must have made turret extremely cramped.

Juha