Navalwarrior
Staff Sergeant
- 764
- Jun 17, 2018
Resp:
Correct. But that was before then US base in Hawaii was attacked.
No European war, how ready are the Americans for the Pacific?
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Correct. But that was before then US base in Hawaii was attacked.
Navalwarrior
Staff Sergeant
- 764
- Jun 17, 2018
Con't:
As an example of second guessing themselves, the US Govt held back 57 Mustangs MkIA form a second British order soon after the Pearl Harbor attack. These Mustangs had yet to be built/delivered to Britain.
Glider
Captain
The US would have been in a difficult position of war hadn't started in 1939. The P40 wouldn't have been around and neither would the P51 as the UK wouldn't have ordered them. The P47 may not have been developed so quickly as it was influenced by the lessons of European combat.
Fortunately the USN was in better shape as the Wildcat would have been around but the USAAF would have been in trouble having to rely on the P43 and P39 for its fighters.
The P38 would have to take the load but the first 18 to 24 months would be tough. It's quite possible that the Wildcat could have been ordered for the USAAF.
Fortunately the USN was in better shape as the Wildcat would have been around but the USAAF would have been in trouble having to rely on the P43 and P39 for its fighters.
The P38 would have to take the load but the first 18 to 24 months would be tough. It's quite possible that the Wildcat could have been ordered for the USAAF.
buffnut453
Captain
From an industrial perspective, the US would be far worse off without a European war. The urgent demand for materiel by many European nations established the foundation for what would become The Arsenal of Democracy.
That said, it's hard to see what action Japan could take to improve it's situation without there also being a war in Europe. Perhaps the most likely course of action would be further expansion in China with .perhaps, a determined effort to move into Siberia. That said, Khalkin Gol rather proved that Japan was unlikely to prevail against the USSR.
It seems to me tgat, without a European war, Japan would have precious little room for manoeuvre. Certainly there were no easy options to address shortages of oil and steel...unless Japan gave in to US pressure and pulled out of China.
That said, it's hard to see what action Japan could take to improve it's situation without there also being a war in Europe. Perhaps the most likely course of action would be further expansion in China with .perhaps, a determined effort to move into Siberia. That said, Khalkin Gol rather proved that Japan was unlikely to prevail against the USSR.
It seems to me tgat, without a European war, Japan would have precious little room for manoeuvre. Certainly there were no easy options to address shortages of oil and steel...unless Japan gave in to US pressure and pulled out of China.
Shortround6
Major General
The US placed a production order for the P-40 in April of 1939 for 524 aircraft. This is 6 months before the French order (230) and over a year before the British order any. Since the P-40 is just a P-36 with a new engine it can go into production much quicker than either the P-39 or P-38. The P-47 might have remained as the Allison powered lightweight fighter.
September 13, 1939 is the date that the Army ordered a batch of AP-4J/P-44s. Basically P-43s with a P&W R-2180 engine if 1400hp. To be ordered on that date means some preliminary work (drawings/estimates) would have had to have been done earlier. Both the plane and the engine were canceled or changed to P-47 orders.
A problem with this scenario is that the world (including the US) was gearing up for war in 1938-39 due to the tensions in europe, some nations much faster than others (The US was somewhere between cruise mode and accelerating as fast as Britain and France. The US Navy was planning on expansion or replacement of many of it's older ships in any case and it wasn't because of what Germany was doing.
If you keep the tensions in Europe but not actual war in in 1939 you get one "path" with options. If the tensions go away in 1938, (Hitler has a heart attack or falls out of his parade car and is run over) then the rearmament schedule of the British and French is totally different.
Glider
Captain
I stand corrected, thanks
Navalwarrior
Staff Sergeant
- 764
- Jun 17, 2018
Resp:
There is no doubt that the war in Europe put the US in a much better position to enter the war. However, Roosevelt was watching the actions of Japan, particularly after they entered China. He expanded the military academies, but did so discretely. He knew it would take an overt act of aggression for Congress to go to war. Roosevelt used every measure to prepare for war, but had to tread lightly due to legal restraints. The US declared war on Japan as a result of the attack at Pearl Harbor. There was no declaration of war with Germany. On January 11, 1942 Hitler declared war on the US . . . which cleared the way for US combat operations in Europe. Also, the Allies were further along in the lessons of war, while they US had to play 'catch up.'
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As noted before, no European war means Japan, most likely, will not make aggresive moves vs. Western countries, USA included. There is nothing in the Philliphines that Japan needs.
If Japan decides to attack USA, there is 'Japan 1st' policy - USA has almost whole Navy already deployed in Pacific, and every piece of military equipment is also shipped there. So we will see Japan running wild for the 1st six months, then the countries are trading blows for next 12 months, then US forces steamroll Japanese. Not just due the USA having more, not neccesarily better gear, but because it's gear has trained crew and fuel inside, unlike Japanese.
If Japan decides to attack USA, there is 'Japan 1st' policy - USA has almost whole Navy already deployed in Pacific, and every piece of military equipment is also shipped there. So we will see Japan running wild for the 1st six months, then the countries are trading blows for next 12 months, then US forces steamroll Japanese. Not just due the USA having more, not neccesarily better gear, but because it's gear has trained crew and fuel inside, unlike Japanese.
Glider
Captain
It's worth remembering that assuming there is no war in Europe then the British would be in a position to assist, as there were treaties in place for it to act against Japan should its protectorates come under threat.
So it wouldn't have been just the USA Japan would have faced
So it wouldn't have been just the USA Japan would have faced
Shortround6
Major General
Even the Dutch were in the process of beefing up their forces with plans for a couple of battlecruisers with 11in guns. The may not have been completed until well after 1941-42 but the Dutch were well aware of increased tensions and threats from the Japanese.
Navalwarrior
Staff Sergeant
- 764
- Jun 17, 2018
Resp:
Exactly. The Japanese military initially was reluctant to take on the British AND US forces in the Pacific, and they believed (at the time) that they would be taking on 'too much.' However, a German Merchant Raider changed that when they intercepted a commercial Austria flagged ship shortly after it left Singapore (@ six months before the attack on Pearl Harbor). The British leadership had just finished completing a 'threat assessment' of their base in Singapore, which indentified two major weaknesses; fighters in theater were mostly inadequate/obsolete compared to Japan's, and if their base was attacked via Inland they would not be able to hold their base for long. This threat assessment was turned over to Admiral Yamamoto. It was enroute to Britain's military leadership when confiscated. Almost immediately an attack plan was drawn up for attacking British and US forces in the Pacific. Japan saw British forces as a serious threat to their forces at the time.
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Interesting what if's. Certainly life would have been much easier for the USN and industrial output could have been focused more on the Pacific. Note that Germany declared war on us. Whether there was the political will for us to go to war against them if they had not declared war is an open question, the historical answer not obvious. War against Japan mostly a naval war from our perspective. Japan, at any time vulnerable to submarine blockade. China, a morass.
