My premise is that AP and HE cannot be directly compared. Just because someone converts the units of energy to some pseudo equivalent does not mean that perform the same damage in actual combat.
AP is intended to penetrate a hard target On an aircraft this is the engine (s) and Armor plate (mainly)
HE is intended cause pressure wave to push metal aside until it deforms. The amount of deformation may or may not be considered critical damage.
Your premise is on shaky ground.
True it is just about impossible to compare chemical energy to kinetic, but then people having been trying to equate kinetic energy to damage done for quite a number years and failing. Generally more is better.
The Premise falls apart because NON-EXPLODING projectiles were expected to damage a lot more things than engines and armor plate. Structural damage like spars, longerons, frames, etc will cause the air-frame to fail in flight. Then there is system damage, fuel system, oil system, radios, landing gear, control systems ( cables/rods leading to control surfaces or hinges), etc.
Exploding projectiles were expected to do a whole lot more than just push skin aside. They were expected to destroy many if not all of the same structural members and systems.
The ONLY HE shells to rely on
blast alone/primarily were the German Mine shells.
EVERYBODY else who used HE shells were depending on both blast AND
FRAGMENTS to increase the damage area over and above the diameter of the projectile. This does introduce all sorts of variables into trying to figure out damage but they cannot be ignored or wished away because they are difficult to deal with.
I simply the concept because in combat it is much more difficult to get an effectiveness measure.
A .50cal hole in a wing was generally considered repairable, not a significant performance degradation. (same for .30). A .50 CAL AP ruins engines and goes through armor plate (to possibly hit the Pilot) with a high probability. You all can quote tables on test better then I on their capabilities.
20mm HE blows holes in AL skin, maybe affecting the performance significantly. But at least American fighters took damage returned to base and even shot down there opponents with damage.
20mm round entered from the far side hit the armor and exploded severely wounding the gunner.
A hit from a non-exploding projectile would have done what?
I am not Implying the .50cal was better or worse than the 20mm. I submit the .50cal setup and 20mm setup varied with various results but was acceptable for the limitations and conditions of WWII.
The .50 cal worked. But it was not as good as most 20mm guns. how much less effective depends on the 20mm ( and there were at least nine different 20mm guns and cartridges in use in WW II) and the ammo used in EACH GUN which often varied by year.