If Italy remains friendly to Hitler and firmly fascist but does not declare war on Britain or France how does the Regia Aeronautica look by 1944-45?
Presumably the biplanes are done for. We can't assume that a Berlin-friendly, yet nonbelligerent Italy will have access to DB engines.
What threats do we see Italy needing to prepare for? The US and Britain may be demanding entry into Italy to open up a southern front. There may also be pressure on Italy's North African and Indian Ocean territory, especially if the Allies think Italy is giving support to the Germans.
OK, I,ll bite.
With Italy staying neutral, GB will probably be happy to leave the Italian navy out of the war, opening another front through a facsist Italy not being worth having italy as an enemy. Come to it, a second front would probably make as much sense through Spain, and the terrain not being as daunting. anyway I don,t thiink that was seriously contemplatted.
What threats does the Italians have to prepare for? If we assume they would not attack Greece then, we are left with the Albanians. Without any real thread, or ambition to enter the global fray, Regia Aeronautica may well simmmer quitly in complecancy, we may see attempts like the Dardo still, as I do suspect you,re right that there,ll be no DB on offer, at least not the latest types. We may see both sides wooing them with quite modern aircraft, as historically happened with Turkey.
But possibly their best bet is to shop in the US, we may see them ultimately equipped with the multi purpose P-39. I,m only half joking, at least I think the US would offer them at quite reasonable rates. Come to it, several other types, which historically fought the Italians, may be sold to them instead, just not the top tier. Then again, maybe not.
Let,s face it, I,m not very good at this alternate stuff, there,s so many accumulated butterflies just a few months down the other trouserleg of time. But honestly, I don,t believe that the Italian air arm, being left in peace, will achieve great things. at least not in practical terms, though being spared the test of combat types like the Ba 88 and its hypothetical heirs may look great on paper.
I,m quite convinced the regio Aeronautica would remain quite unrenmaerkably mediocre throughout.