Right, it's aft of the tank cells, but I'm doubtful it's a wheels-up landing -- wouldn't that grab wingtip first and end up as a wheel-less ground-loop or simply tip damage?
Additionally, looking at the direct damage to the flap -- and you're right, that's the impact point -- you can see clear signs of explosion, including slivered strips of metal curling away, which if you follow them to their base indicate the point where the shell exploded. I'd guess most of the shrapnel passed upwards and through the top surface, but statistically some of that should either deviate or be ricocheted into the fuel tanks so close-by.
We also see some bad damage at the aft wing-root which would seem hard to explain with just a wheels-up landing.
I'd noticed the prop damage and think your guess of a nose-over is probably most likely.
Both of those seem to clearly be cannonshot, and the second one appears to be directly inside the perimeter of the fuel cells. I could well be wrong, and as I noted, anecdotes are not evidence, but it does seem to push back on the idea that these things were tinderboxes waiting to go up in a whoof.