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Water will be the trouble, with only about two weeks supply. Food can be shipped in. Convoys were arriving right up to the last day. Hopefully those ships as they leave will remove many nonessential drinkers/eaters.It would never happen for one reason that has little or nothing to do with military power.
Ask yourself this question, If you want to hold on for three months, where are you going to get the food and water to supply the population of a large city?
I'm not sanguine on "What If's", too many variables to have any definite outcome.15 Feb 1942, Percival and his 85,000 men surrender to a much smaller, and resource depleted Japanese force of 36,000 men. How is the SEA/Pacific war impacted if the British manage to withstand the Japanese siege for an additional 90 days, to May 15, 1942? This would be after the US surrender of the Philippines. If he can protect his water supply, I'd argue that Percival can hold out, especially as the IJA is dangerously low on ammunition and supplies of their own. With Singapore holding out, do the Philippines still fall? What about Coral Sea and the PNG ops? What does Britain do with Singapore, is Percival relieved? Is Sommerville's Far East fleet from Ceylon moved forward?
Looking at aviation, does Japan have the airpower to keep up the offensive? Can the RAF get reinforcements to Singapore? Where would the RAF operate from? In March Sommerville is at Ceylon with three carriers, maybe they'll carry the air defence load?
Was that ever done? How did the Americans hold out at Corregidor until May? In 2019 I visited the Battle Box at Singapore. It was a great guided tour, and the guide told us how the water supply wasn't protected during the siege, that burst water pipes drained into the streets, the reservoirs were not repaired, etc. I imagine had the water supply been better maintained and protected, and if every non-combatant civilian was taken away on the transports that arrived throughout January and well into February, that the water supply might have held out.If convoys can be protected, the water can be brought in as well. Coastal tankers could do the job.
I think had the British understood their fate they might have held on. The Chinese could have told the British to expect no quarter if they surrendered. Churchill's orders were to fight to the last man, but Percival surrendered to an under-equipped, nearly broken army nearly three times as small as his own.Frankly, Percival didn't need to hold on for 3 months. If he'd just held the line for a few more weeks, the outcome may have been very different. The extended Japanese logistics chain led all the way up to Thailand. At the time of the British surrender, the Japanese forces were running dangerously short of ammunition, particularly artillery shells. Replacement of air combat losses was also problematic.
What he said.I'm not sanguine on "What If's", too many variables to have any definite outcome.
That being said, I always enjoy your prospective scenarios Beez, they are well thought out and very thought provoking, and while I don't feel qualified to really add anything, I'm always keen on reading what posters contribute to these threads.
I think had the British understood their fate they might have held on. The Chinese could have told the British to expect no quarter if they surrendered. Churchill's orders were to fight to the last man, but Percival surrendered to an under-equipped, nearly broken army nearly three times as small as his own.
But in his defence, Percival should never have been given this job. He had no combat experience and no experience leading a large force or directing any defence of this size. And, with the notable exception of Lt-General Health, all of Percival's subordinates were equally useless and inexperienced. Here's Malaya Command's esteemed general officers.
Has there ever been a collection of more inexperienced, incapable commanders put in charge of such a critically important territory? Malaya produced most of the British Empire's rubber and tin, it was not a backwater for trainees and has beens. There's not one senior officer in Malaya suited to command its defence. We like to pick on the until now desk-bound Vice Admiral Phillips for muddling Force Z into range of IJN bombers without air cover, but Phillips was no worse than these other inexperienced senior officers.
- CNC Malaya Command, Lt-Gen. Percival - no combat experience, only home guard and admin work
- Indian III Corps, Lt-Gen. Heath - some combat experience against the Italians, commanded the 5th Indian Division in the Sudan, forced the surrender of the garrison at Massawa in Jan 41.
- Australian 8th Division, Maj-Gen. Bennett - no combat since France, March 1916. Only home guard work since then, until arriving in Malaya in Feb 1941.
- Fortress Singapore, Maj-Gen. Simmons - no combat since France, WW1. A seemingly useless fool, IMO, "An ardent supporter of the concept that defence construction was detrimental to troop morale"
- Malaya Command Reserve, Brig. Paris - no combat since France, WW1, per wiki, "one of the few British commanders that put up a good fight against the Japanese"
- Sarawak Force (SARFOR), Lt-Col. Malet Lane - recently promoted, no apparent combat experience
- RAF Malaya, Air Vice Marshal Conway Pulford, no combat experience. Was commander of No. 26 Training Group RAF until deployment to Malaya in 1941.
- RN Far East, Vice Admiral Phillips. No command combat experience. Was chief of staff at RN HQ in London. Force Z was Phillip's first command.
If Singapore can hold out for another 90 days we can assume that Heath has taken command or someone like Monty's been flown in.
But in his defence, Percival should never have been given this job. He had no combat experience and no experience leading a large force or directing any defence of this size. And, with the notable exception of Lt-General Health, all of Percival's subordinates were equally useless and inexperienced. Here's Malaya Command's esteemed general officers.
- CNC Malaya Command, Lt-Gen. Percival - no combat experience, only home guard and admin work
Good info and points, thanks. So, with Percival's not insignificant combat and command experience and abilities, to what can we attribute his lack of defensive preparations from his arrival in April 1941? For example, RAF airbases with no army defence, with no plans to blow up the bases upon retreat? When the IJA essentially walked onto RAF bases they would find intact bomb, ammunition and fuel stores. Same when Singapore fell, the IJA found tons of concrete mix intended for building defensive works, still in their sacks in warehouses. I suppose I was giving Percival the benefit of the doubt, that he failed because of inexperienced and being posted above his station. Instead should we conclude that he was just useless?
Firstly, your statement about Percival's lack of combat experience is entirely inaccurate. While it's true he had no combat experience leading large-scale formations, he had a lot of combat experience, as evidenced by the award of MC, DSO+Bar for his service during the First World War. During that War, he rose to become a battalion commander and temporarily took over his brigade in May 1918. His first DSO was awarded during the German Spring Offensive of 1918 where he led a counter-attack that saved a French artillery unit from capture (the French Government awarded him the Croix de Guerre for this action).
Following the Armistice, Percival volunteered for service in Russia, where he earned his second DSO. His citation reads "He commanded the Gorodok column on 9–10 August 1919, with great gallantry and skill, and owing to the success of this column the forces on the right bank of the Dvina were able to capture all its objectives. During the enemy counter-attack from Selmenga on Gorodok he handled his men excellently. The enemy were repulsed with great loss, leaving 400 prisoners in our hands."
During WW2, Percival was a Brigadier in the HQ staff of I Corps as part of the BEF in France. While he didn't have actual command, he would have been intimately involved in planning and organizing the Corps for operations during the Phony War. This is not "admin work"
Your comment about "home guard" implies some association with the Home Guard, which may be inadvertent...but is equally wrong. He led the 44th (Home Counties) Division which had been part of the BEF in France and was reformed under Percival's leadership after the retreat from Dunkirk. Yes, the Division was charged with homeland defence but that's a very different proposition from the Home Guard.
One other point that needs to be acknowledged is the overall challenge of resourcing Far East Command Command when it wasn't an actual combat zone. We've acknowledged in other threads that Malaya/Singapore/Burma fell well down the pecking order when it came to allocation of resources. That problems is as true for personnel as it is for equipment. Bear in mind that there weren't actually that many general officers with recent combat experience, and those that were around, like Slim and Wavell, were actually doing the fighting during 1941. Pulling them to lead a backwater like Malaya is inconceivable because, in order to have any impact, they would have to be appointed in late 1940 or early 1941 at the absolute latest. Percival himself acknowledged this challenge. If the Japanese didn't attack, then Singapore was nothing more than a non-operational backwater and a career dead-end. However, if the Japanese did attack, then it was unlikely that Far East Command would have the resources to successfully defend the peninsula.
One final note about combat experience. Bear in mind that Norman Schwarzkopf, the Allied commander during Desert Storm, didn't actually have much combat experience. Yes, he had 2 tours in Vietnam, which totaled about 18 months in-country, and he also was put in charge of the invasion of Grenada at the last minute. However, the parallels with Percival are rather interesting. Most of his combat experience, like Percival's, took place when he was a relatively junior officer some 20 years before he assumed large-scale command during combat. Also, Schwarzkopf's experience in Vietnam was far from an ideal preparation for Desert Storm, just as Percival's experience in WW1 may not have been the best preparation for senior leadership in WW2. Percival did, however, spend at least 3 full years in combat-related roles during WW1, then went on to operational service in Russia before taking on an anti-terrorism role in Ireland between the wars. Compared to many generals, that's not a bad record of combat experience.
15 Feb 1942, Percival and his 85,000 men surrender to a much smaller, and resource depleted Japanese force of 36,000 men. How is the SEA/Pacific war impacted if the British manage to withstand the Japanese siege for an additional 90 days, to May 15, 1942? This would be after the US surrender of the Philippines. If he can protect his water supply, I'd argue that Percival can hold out, especially as the IJA is dangerously low on ammunition and supplies of their own. With Singapore holding out, do the Philippines still fall? What about Coral Sea and the PNG ops? What does Britain do with Singapore, is Percival relieved? Is Sommerville's Far East fleet from Ceylon moved forward?
Looking at aviation, does Japan have the airpower to keep up the offensive? Can the RAF get reinforcements to Singapore? Where would the RAF operate from? In March Sommerville is at Ceylon with three carriers, maybe they'll carry the air defence load?
For example, RAF airbases with no army defence, with no plans to blow up the bases upon retreat? When the IJA essentially walked onto RAF bases they would find intact bomb, ammunition and fuel stores.
So, with Percival's not insignificant combat and command experience and abilities, to what can we attribute his lack of defensive preparations from his arrival in April 1941?...Same when Singapore fell, the IJA found tons of concrete mix intended for building defensive works, still in their sacks in warehouses.
I agree, and that's why I checked into and listed the backgrounds of the other senior officers at Malaya. The idea that Percival was to blame for it all is a myth, especially since he only arrived in April 1941. As for the air bases' placement and lack of evacuation plans, I put that squarely onto Air Vice Marshall Conway Pulford and his predecessor, though to be fair to Pulford he also arrived in mid 1941.Regarding airfield defence, bear in mind that the RAF selected the locations of the airfields with zero consultation on how the Army might defend them.
As regards plans to blow up the airfields and the leaving behind of materiel for the Japanese to capture, blame must be squarely shouldered on the shoulders of the RAF..
Was it that high?The population of Singapore in 1939 was around 1.3 million,
I imagine many non-native civilians had fled by the time war was imminent. Though many seemed to wait until the last moment...
If pipes and other infrastructure are not repaired, then the new supply does not help, of course. Shipping water itself is not rocket science.Was that ever done? How did the Americans hold out at Corregidor until May? In 2019 I visited the Battle Box at Singapore. It was a great guided tour, and the guide told us how the water supply wasn't protected during the siege, that burst water pipes drained into the streets, the reservoirs were not repaired, etc. I imagine had the water supply been better maintained and protected, and if every non-combatant civilian was taken away on the transports that arrived throughout January and well into February, that the water supply might have held out.