Try again and see my post.
The Merlin 66 did not have 1710hp at sea level, it had 1705hp at 5750ft and had to use a partially closed throttle at sea level (much like the DB 605A puts out 1475ps at sea level but 1525-1550ps at a bit over 2000m). Merlin 66 was good for a lot closer to 1600hp at sea level.
Well maybe this will help you. Merlin 66 had 1680 HP at SL (+18/3000), so my conclusions are still correct. There's no likely involved. Source British datasheet for Merlin 66, clearly noting SL power.
So the real question is - how much the Griffon 65 had at SL under static condtions? 1840 is for 400 mph ram. Likely the static condition is closer to 1900 HP at SL for Griffon. That means the aerodynamic effiency loss between the Mark I and Mark XIV is even slightly more severe.
The 20mm gun installation was worth a few mph, drag yes but little to do with the "dirty underside". the increase in weight of over a ton means higher induced drag. We can account for 8-12mph just in the induced drag and guns (minimum), Between just those losses from drag and the actual power being lower than you figured the increase in drag from the "dirty underside" is heading for "insignificant" really quick.
Well let's see. 1 ton weight increase worth about 5 mph speed loss (from kurfurst.org site, for 109 but good ballpark for Spitfire.). Cannon installation - about 10 mph loss. Say another 5 mph for everything else - new antanne, changed shape winshield etc.
That still leaves about 20 mph loss is due to things on the dirty underside. My take is that most of it is really coming from the much enlarged and doubled radiators.
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