The Naval Battle of Wake Island?

[oldcrowcv63]

This might have been thoroughly explored in previous threads, if so, please direct me to it.

Forget Midway, What about the narrowly missed Naval Battle of Wake Island?

What if, post-Pearl Harbor, ADM Yamamoto is blessed with a precient moment and tasks RAdm Yamaguchi Tamon & his Carrier Division 2, comprised of Soryu & Hiryu, with the primary mission of seeking out and destroying USN Carriers. Perhaps as early as Late December with the capture of Wake Island as a Midway-analog bait. Begs the 1st question, who, of anyone subsequently captured, was aware of the slow approach of Sara (CV-3). 2nd question: Did intelligence gleaned from the IJN's Wake operation provide the inspiration for the Midway strategy? 3rd Question: If Yamaguchi's CARDIV 2 had hung around or advanced Eastward encountering & sinking Sara, would the subsequent 12 months have played out substantially differently? Although Sara was in repair during the Midway operation and wouldn't be missed, presumably all of her air wing aircraft would be lost and many prominent aircrew would be gone. Losses might Include Thach, O'Hare, Gaylor, and Leslie all who played major roles at either Midway or other Pacific battles. Assume the loss of her air wing aircraft could be made up, (except perhaps some of her 42 SBD-3s.). With success at Wake, Yamaguchi then hunts down and sinks either Enterprise or Lexington, the latter still defended by no better than a mix of F2A-3s (due to the early loss of both Sara and VF-3).

 

[SaparotRob]

The Saratoga is gone as is a Yorktown. The Ranger and Wasp are recalled from the Atlantic and sent to the Pacific. The Hornet has already been recalled.
Malta is in greater peril as "H.M.S. Wasp" is not available to ferry Spitfires. Other ships could carry crated aircraft but a carrier has to be better at carrying aircraft. Allied convoys in the Mediterranean have less protection. I've been reading the thread about reinforcing of Malaya and Singapore. Forces pulled from from S.E. Asia to reinforce the Med? I haven't read much history of that theatre. Okay, the U.S. is sending two lesser carriers to the pacific.
I believe that the Marine detachment at Wake had to be aware Saratoga was on the way. I'm guessing they didn't just drop off a bunch of planes and say "surprise!" So we're talking Wake's senior officers at least.
I haven't read about Wake influencing Yamamoto's plans on Midway. Wake beat the first Japanese attack back. That was Japan's first setback (right?). Therefore I think Japanese planners ignored the lessons of Wake as simply American failure to behave properly and could be cured by a touch of the armored gauntlet.
In this scenario, Midway is lost. I don't know how the battle of the Coral Sea would have turned out if it even happened at all. Too many lost U.S. flight decks and fewer experienced aircrews before May, 1942. The one advantage The U.S. would have at the time is Joe Rochefort and company. I wonder if the connection to Australia could have been maintained until industrial output kicked in.

 

[oldcrowcv63]

The Saratoga is gone as is a Yorktown. The Ranger and Wasp are recalled from the Atlantic and sent to the Pacific. The Hornet has already been recalled.
Malta is in greater peril as "H.M.S. Wasp" is not available to ferry Spitfires. Other ships could carry crated aircraft but a carrier has to be better at carrying aircraft. Allied convoys in the Mediterranean have less protection. I've been reading the thread about reinforcing of Malaya and Singapore. Forces pulled from from S.E. Asia to reinforce the Med? I haven't read much history of that theatre. Okay, the U.S. is sending two lesser carriers to the pacific.
I believe that the Marine detachment at Wake had to be aware Saratoga was on the way. I'm guessing they didn't just drop off a bunch of planes and say "surprise!" So we're talking Wake's senior officers at least. I haven't read about Wake influencing Yamamoto's plans on Midway. Wake beat the first Japanese attack back. That was Japan's first setback (right?). Therefore I think Japanese planners ignored the lessons of Wake as simply American failure to behave properly and could be cured by a touch of the armored gauntlet. In this scenario, Midway is lost. I don't know how the battle of the Coral Sea would have turned out if it even happened at all. Too many lost U.S. flight decks and fewer experienced aircrews before May, 1942. The one advantage The U.S. would have at the time is Joe Rochefort and company. I wonder if the connection to Australia could have been maintained until industrial output kicked in.

In this scenario starting at the Wake Rescue about December 20-25, the Yorktown is barely in the Pacific so citing its loss, presumably you meant at Midway some 6 months later seems premature. There are earlier considerations that might ultimately effect later events like Midway.

I assumed the Naval (Air) Battle of Wake Island and the loss of Sara and VF-3 would occur within a day or two after the capture of Wake. The Soryu & Hiryu might then go hunting for more USN CVs, or not.

If the Sara is lost at the outset of WW2, as opposed to being put out of action a month later by a Sub torpedo, the most immediate effect might be felt by the loss of two fighter squadrons consisting of the 13 F4Fs of VF-3 and many of its personnel, and the loss of the 14 F2A's of VMF-221 intended for Wake but historically deposited on Midway. The loss of this relatively small number of fighters during the wake island relief operation. By the time of the Wake Relief effort, the Navy had Three Carriers in the Pacific Lex (21 F2A), Sara (13 F4F) and Enterprise (11 x F4F-3A, 4 x F4F-3 & 1 x F2A-3). As mentioned Sara also carried the 14 F2As of VMF-221.

With the loss of VMF-221, there are no F2As for Midway, so Midway might eventually gain the 17 F2A-3s given up in mid January by VF-2 in exchange for F4F-3s & 3As. These F2As would presumably be transported to Midway by a carrier. Unless of course, Lex is sent to raid Wake and Rabaul with F2As. The pilots of VF-2 are highly regarded and against Bettys might do no worse than the F4Fs of VF-3 with Thach and O'Hare, both of whom might, with their squadron mates, be convalescing in a PH hospital or on R&R Leave, or worse. Allowing VF-2 a month or so to transition to F4Fs might mean cancelation of the Rabaul raid. After that, events might unfold pretty much along historical lines. Coral Sea unfolds the same if only the Yorktown and Lex are sent. What the loss of Sara might mean for the Doolittle Raid is unknown but I think it might be seen as too risky to undertake. If so, Hornet spends more time in training and is more combat ready and proficient by the Midway invasion. However, according to at least some historical pundits, the IJN Midway operation was either motivated or accelerated by the Doolittle raid. If no Doolittle raid, Yamamoto still is looking to eliminate the US carriers from the board so something like that operation would happen, but when? If no Doolittle Raid, do Enterprise & Hornet participate in Coral Sea? If Midway is delayed and is fought later than early June, when does the US Guadalcanal invasion occur. Japan is running out of time. By mid-winter, 1943, Squadrons flying the P-38, F4U & F6F beginning arriving in the South Pacific. In another six months, the Essex class carriers begin to appearing theater.

With the same 4 carriers in the Pacific (Lex, Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet) the Wasp timeline might also remain the same. As I understand it, The USN considered the Ranger's design unfit for the high-threat Pacific Theater. Loss of another fleet carrier might alter that opinion.

Loss of another USN CV in this early period might change that calculus considerably. Lexington and Enterprise were in the same general area of Sara after Wake separated by a day or two's fast steaming, so maybe it's possible that the elements of your alternate history might have played out.

Whew... That's enough what if for the rest of the year!

 

[RCAFson]

This might have been thoroughly explored in previous threads, if so, please direct me to it.

Forget Midway, What about the narrowly missed Naval Battle of Wake Island?

The actual operation is covered in First Team, chapter two.

 

[oldcrowcv63]

The actual operation is covered in First Team, chapter two.

Yep that's where the numbers of fighters and time line came from. Thanks for noting which I should have done. Also, I think I accelerated the F6F time line. Not sure when land based F6F's might have appeared, but believe that Carrier based F6F's didn't arrive in SOPAC until August.

 

[SaparotRob]

We agree that Wake didn't affect IJN planning about Midway, you just pointed out what really did affect it!
I figured with the U.S. down 2 carriers so soon, CINCUS (ironic) might circle the wagons and pull back thus avoiding the Coral Sea battle. As I write this I realize I'm making the same mistake the IJN made, how to get the Americans to fight. Talk about ironic.
Whether or not Ranger was unfit for Pacific I think it and Wasp would have been sent. Desperate times. Besides the thread about reinforcing Malaya is so good I had to work it in somehow.
I think I got the "would anyone captured have known" question.
It's way easier to ask you guys a question than to answer a question from you guys. I'm glad I reviewed this topic a bit before "correcting" oldcrowcv63 (off the top of my head) that Lexington was delivering the aircraft.

 

[oldcrowcv63]

We agree that Wake didn't affect IJN planning about Midway, you just pointed out what really did affect it!
I figured with the U.S. down 2 carriers so soon, CINCUS (ironic) might circle the wagons and pull back thus avoiding the Coral Sea battle. As I write this I realize I'm making the same mistake the IJN made, how to get the Americans to fight. Talk about ironic.
Whether or not Ranger was unfit for Pacific I think it and Wasp would have been sent. Desperate times. Besides the thread about reinforcing Malaya is so good I had to work it in somehow.
I think I got the "would anyone captured have known" question.
It's way easier to ask you guys a question than to answer a question from you guys. I'm glad I reviewed this topic a bit before "correcting" oldcrowcv63 (off the top of my head) that Lexington was delivering the aircraft.

With the loss of two carriers.... Desperate times indeed. On the other hand.. Prior to Midway, the US did lose two carriers. One from a torpedo in January and one as a result of the Coral Sea Battle. But once again, in the Carrier battles of 1942, we find that they tend to be knock-down, drag-out affairs where both sides inflict some serious damage on the other. Midway is somewhat unusual in the loss of sinking of 3 carriers without recovery for future use. It seems, as often as not, serious damage is inflicted and a carrier is withdrawn, repaired for future use. Circumstances arise that prevent recovery of damaged carriers. As I understand it, at Coral Sea, Lex suffered internal explosions attributed to a design flaw. While the loss of Hornet and Yorktown has been attributed to the absence of a fleet tug to tow them from the scene of battle. If that were true for Yorktown. Why wasn't such a tug provided for Hornet at Santa Cruz... I don't know. Strictly in terms of damage each suffered, I have the impression that Yorktown, Hornet, Akagi and Hiryu and even Lex were all in the end scuttled but otherwise might have been salvaged for subsequent repair under different circumstances.

If we assume for a hypothetical example that Sara and Enterprise were lost shortly after Pearl Harbor, then Lex, Hornet and Yorktown are still available for both Coral Sea and Midway. Depending on the outcome of the Coral Sea engagement, the US might be down to two operational carriers with which to meet the 4 IJN flattops at Midway. However, the USN effectively fought at Midway with only two Carriers. Hornet really didn't provide a contribution other than the ship & shore detachments of VT-8. I started this thread with the assumption that there would be a more profound consequence of early and permanent loss of at least two carriers. Now, I think, maybe not, especially with the possible temporary transfer of Ranger to SOPAC until replaced by Wasp in early Summer. Or vice versa if Ranger is used for the Malta resupply and retained in the Atlantic for Torch. I dunno.

 

[SaparotRob]

I was going with the condition of 2 U.S. carriers lost at the outset. The Saratoga (lost trying to reinforce Wake) and Enterprise. Both sunk before the raids on Lae and Salamaua. Hence, no Doolittle raid and no battle of the Coral Sea. Not enough flight decks.
How to keep the sealanes to Australia open? Does Japan force a battle for the Coral Sea after all? That's why I had Wasp and Ranger, unfit or not, sent to the Pacific. In that scenario, perhaps the IJN does move on Midway before more U.S. carriers arrive. I'm not on top of the Japanese schedule for the Dutch East Indies and French Indo China.
I think you might be more familiar with fleet operations than I. Would any of the fleets sent to Point Luck or GuadalCanal have a fleet tug? I wouldn't be surprised if the 5/7th fleet did have them by mid 1944 but late 1942?
I read that Lexington was done in by a generator left running setting off gas fumes (How did the author know?). Reading the loss of the Yorktown was especially sad to me. After all damage, efforts to save her and abandonment, she didn't want to sink. Had the tow been set up a bit sooner the sub that sank her might not have been in position.

 

[oldcrowcv63]

There are so many unknowns, but I think the basic US strategy was sound and would have played out, even if two CVs were lost early, I expect the Coral Sea operation to happen along historical lines to maintain the vital line of comm with Australia. King and Nimitz were aligned on that strategy before Midway, as demonstrated by subsequent actions. The Line of Comm with Oz, was regarded as its most vital war effort objective at that time. Arguably, every bit as important as Midway.

If the IJN was confident about the USN losing two carriers, then it might have been more bold in executing its operation. What would that mean? Sending more or fewer IJN carriers to support the invasion of Port Moresby? The IJN generally operated its fleet carriers in pairs for mutual support. After 1941, so did the USN. I'd expect that the destruction of two enemy carriers would make IJN commanders confident, so I'd expect the same moves with the same units to initiate the Coral Sea confrontation.

After the Doolittle raid and its return to PH, TF-16 with Enterprise and Hornet were tasked to operate in the vicinity of the Solomon Islands in defense of the Oz comm line and in support of TF-17 with Lex and Yorktown, already there. A few days later, after the Coral Sea battle, TF-16 feinted toward Ocean and Nauru Islands and managed to forestall a Japanese invasion which, thanks to the outcome at Coral Sea, had eliminated the invasion's carrier support.

Historically the Pac Fleet had 4 carriers through Midway and accomplished its primary objectives with those 4. It used all 4 to defend the Oz Line of Comm. Either Wasp or Ranger, but not both, transferred from the Atlantic, arriving in late winter or by early Spring should give Nimitz the forces he both needed and historically used to operate in accord with the historical playbook.

 

[SaparotRob]

I gotta agree. The divergence from actual history would inevitably re-align. Australia would be a priority over Midway. Midway might've had to be retaken. Although we might have had 4 carriers, 2 of them would not be as durable or capable as the others.
Regarding the alternate IJN actions, would they have also included very complex fleet dispositions as well? Might our lesser task forces been able to defeat IJN formations in detail?

 

[GrauGeist]

Keep in mind the ramifications of pulling the Ranger from the Atlantic/Med early, though.
Aside from delivering much needed Army aircraft to North Africa, her SBDs were elemental in damaging Vichy French Naval assets as well as supporting the RN in the Baltic (while attempting the lure the Tirpitz out of hiding).

 

[Peter Gunn]

Of the carriers mentioned as damaged and lost, probably only Yorktown needed a tug. Hiryu and Akagi were demolished by the raging fires they suffered, quotes from the Japanese admirals in Shattered Sword make it clear those two were only going to move a couple of more miles... to the seabed.

Lexington as memory serves probably could have recovered and steamed home on her own if not for the unfortunate ventilation problem, not sure it was really a design flaw.

Hornet was pretty badly damaged at Santa Cruz, I know efforts to tow her with a DD were attempted so perhaps a fleet tug would have been able to save her.

 

[SaparotRob]

I already threw Malta under the bus. I didn't remember what Ranger was doing.

 

[Peter Gunn]

I already threw Malta under the bus. I didn't remember what Ranger was doing.

Eh... It's just Malta, no big deal...

 

[oldcrowcv63]

I already threw Malta under the bus. I didn't remember what Ranger was doing.

Probably smokin' a joint behind the Gymnasium.

 

[SaparotRob]

Probably smokin' a joint behind the Gymnasium.

Like wow, man. Was it 4:20 already?

 

[oldcrowcv63]

Like wow, man. Was it 4:20 already?

Probably just cutting class with Charlie Brown.

 

[oldcrowcv63]

Just thought I'd check to see what both Ranger & Wasp were up to after PH to Wasp's deployment to the South Pacific.

Of course Wasp's history is perhaps a bit better known that Ranger's having been used twice as an aircraft ferry to launch Spitfires to reinforce the air defense of Malta.

Departing Norfolk on 14 JAN 1942, after completion of an overhaul, Wasp operated along the Northeast US and Canadian Coasts until departing to join the British Home Fleet on 26 MAR 1942. Her first sortie to deliver 47 Spitfires to Malta was during Operation Calendar.
Launching her cargo in the early morning of 20 APR 1942 the Spitfires reached Malta and most were quickly destroyed on the ground during an apparently targeted air raid. On 9 MAY, a second load of 47 Spitfires were launched, substantially assisting the island's defense. Loss of Lexington during the Coral Sea battle followed by Yorktown at Midway. provided motivation to initiate the transfer of Wasp to the Pacific. She entered the Pacific on June 10. That early date may indicate the loss of Lexington was the spark for the transfer even before the loss of Yorktown, adding I think, significant credibility to Rob's speculation.
The two Malta support missions are depicted in the film, Malta Story, a dramatization of the battle through the eyes of a Spitfire recon pilot played by Obi Wan Kenobi himself. The pilot was apparently very loosely based on the extraordinary exploits and history of the real RAF recon pilot, Adrian Warburton:

Malta Story - Wikipedia

Adrian Warburton - Wikipedia



Next, Ranger's story.

 

[oldcrowcv63]

The film Malta Story can be seen on You tube:

 

[oldcrowcv63]

Now the Ranger in early 1942: (from Wikipedia)

Ranger had just returned from a Caribbean patrol on December 8, 1941 after the PH attack. She departed on 21 December, 1941, for a South Atlantic patrol perhaps awaiting port facilities to became available for a variety of wartime mods to be installed. Modifications may have included installation of the CXAM Radar, which the USN had apparently begun on its major ships in late 1941. It also entailed an mproved AA suite of weapons. All vitally needed for future war time operations in either ocean. April 22nd, she sortied to deliver 68 P-40s to Accra West Africa for overland flight to the AVG in China. Returning to NAS Quonset Point, RI, she briefly patrolled to Newfoundland before another sortie to deliver 72 P-40s of the 57th FG to Accra on 19 July for overland flight to Egypt. The 57th FG as a unit of the 9th AF were integrated into an allied air force for the second Battle of El Alamein in the Fall of 1942. I suppose, in a pinch, cargo ships or perhaps escort carriers could have replaced the Ranger for these seemingly mundane tasks but then what convoys might have suffered if the CVEs were absent and how many aircraft could have been comfortably carried by the smaller ships? Were port facilities at Accra available for unloading and assembling crated fighters?