The Nuclear decision...what if?

[Soren]

So yes, the German scientists helped the allies in developing the bomb. Your loss, our gain.

My loss ??! Are you serious ??!

For crying out loud Syscom, you've got to stop this little game of yours soon!



Civettone,

I agree with you completely.

I bet Syscom3 will be surprised to know just how much funding the introduction of jet technology into active service required. The V-2 project was very complex, so complex that it took the US longer to develop than it took them to develop the A-bomb - something which speaks volumes if you ask me.

 

[drgondog]

The Germans could've developed a deliverable nuclear weapon, maybe by '46, but there was too much disinterest in higher circles to support the atomic research that was going on in Germany in the late '30's/early '40's; Hitler considered atomic research a "Jewish scince" and, therefore, dismissed it out of hand (see David Irving's book The German Atomic Bomb: The History of Nuclear Research in Nazi Germany). Germany actually built the first operational heavy-water facility in Vemork, Norway before it was sabotaged by British commandos in '40.

They also had plans on the drawing board for a "boosted" V-2 capable of reaching the East Coast of the USA (it would've been the world's first true ICBM) known as the A-10 (there were also much larger rockets projected beyond this known as the A-11 A-12). In theory, one of these "boosted" V-2's probably could've lofted an atomic weapon on the US, but the Germans were years away from that when the War ended.

What was the first 'sputnik' in 1957 - 137 pounds? The first delivered atomic bomb was 10,000+ pounds that the V-2 derivative would nearly have to put in orbit to reach the US! It took a Loooooooong time before a 100 pound nuc was developed.. what source discussed a reasonable payload for the advanced V-2A-11 or 12?

 

[syscom3]

My loss ??! Are you serious ??!

For crying out loud Syscom, you've got to stop this little game of yours soon!



Civettone,

I agree with you completely.

I bet Syscom3 will be surprised to know just how much funding the introduction of jet technology into active service required. The V-2 project was very complex, so complex that it took the US longer to develop than it took them to develop the A-bomb - something which speaks volumes if you ask me.

If the V2 was more complex a weapon to develop than the B29 or A-Bomb, then its no wonder Germany lost the war.

 

[Civettone]

Yet another in depth analysis by Syscom. At least now we know why the Germans lost the war...

Kris

 

[delcyros]

I am with Syscom3 on this.
And it should be recognized that the missile technology was hyper advanced but conventionel (the first rocket engined flight was well before ww2).

But the Manhatten project not only was hyper advanced but also unconventional. The amount of reserach done and the amount of infrastructure building is a non neglectable argument.

 

[Soren]

Delcyros,

I disagree, the Germans themselves were well into nuclear science, Meitner, Hahn and Strassmann's theories discoveries being the foundation for the work carried out in the manhattan project. What the was lacking was funding - the possibility of military use being denied by Hitler.

Also rocket science might have been conventionel, but self guided rockets weren't.

 

[Bullockracing]

...and France by then was the most advanced nation in nuclear physics...

I call BS!!! The Netherlands' Neils Bohr had come the closest in Europe to having an active pile, but the SAS had explosives rigged underground to blow it went active. France had their scientists, but definitely was not "the most advanced" Even Japan was further ahead than France (thanks to the good Dr. Nishina)...

 

[Pilot of the B-17]

I bet that would have been used

I bet we would have been threatened with the nuclear strikes

And i think we would have been taken down

 

[Soren]

Niels Bohr is Danish.

 

[Aussie1001]

THE nuke on hiroshima and nakisaki required huge amounts of effort in it.
i have been reading a book on the subject just recently called "Hitlers scientists". British scientists cacluated that a smaller amount than had ever been thought of would be enough to generate a nuculear detonaltion and the following chain reaction through the particle of Uranium 235...

 

[syscom3]

Where Did The Money Go?
(estimated cumulative costs through December 31, 1945)


Site/Project

Then-year Dollars/Constant 1996 Dollars

OAK RIDGE (Total) $1,188,352,000 $13,565,662,000
—K-25 Gaseous Diffusion Plant $512,166,000 $5,846,644,000
—Y-12 Electromagnetic Plant $477,631,000 $5,452,409,000
—Clinton Engineer Works, HQ
and central utilities $155,951,000 $1,780,263,000
—Clinton Laboratories $26,932,000 $307,443,000
—S-50 Thermal Diffusion Plant $15,672,000 $178,904,000
HANFORD ENGINEER WORKS $390,124,000 $4,453,470,000
SPECIAL OPERATING MATERIALS $103,369,000 $1,180,011,000
LOS ALAMOS PROJECT $74,055,000 $845,377,000
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT $69,681,000 $795,445,000
GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD $37,255,000 $425,285,000
HEAVY WATER PLANTS1 $26,768,000 $305,571,000

Grand Total 1945: $1,889,604,000
Grand Total 1996: $21,570,821,000

Another price for the project was for 130 billion in 1996 prices, as factored into project cost per percentage of the GNP of 1945.

The Hanford and Oak Ridge sites had the benefit of abundant hydro-electric power needed for the project, none of which was easily available in Nazi Germany. These sites were also massive industrial facilities, that could not be hidden or their use disguised from aerial recon. If Germany had constructed similar facilities, they would have been bombed to oblivion once they were seen being built.

The number of scientists and technicians needed for this project was available to the allies, since they pooled their personnel to work on the many details of building the bomb. Germany did not have the resources to do this, without impacting many other programs and its war program.

 

[delcyros]

I disagree, the Germans themselves were well into nuclear science, Meitner, Hahn and Strassmann's theories discoveries being the foundation for the work carried out in the manhattan project. What the was lacking was funding - the possibility of military use being denied by Hitler.

I am not disputing the theoretical knowledge and the discoveries made before ww2, I am of the very opinion that they had come to the right track in ww2 but they actually lacked the industrial implementation how to use this "lab-knowledge". If You read Speers comments about this, it´s going to be pretty clear. the advance the germans had in possession in 1939 was already cast in doubt 1940 by France, 1942 by the UK and 1943 by the US. I would even go so far and say that without Heisenberg (the seperation of nucleus would have been discovered anyway this year as demonstrated by others), the germans might have an initial disadvantage but might turn out much better in ww2 as Heisenberg did his best to delay a german nuclear project. Keep in mind, it wasn´t the gouvernment, or Hitler or Milch or Speer who refused funding, it was Heisenberg who answered, beeing asked how much money he need to build a bomb, that only labour financing is needed at this stage and a bomb wouldn´t be practical in this conflict!

I call BS!!! The Netherlands' Neils Bohr had come the closest in Europe to having an active pile, but the SAS had explosives rigged underground to blow it went active. France had their scientists, but definitely was not "the most advanced" Even Japan was further ahead than France (thanks to the good Dr. Nishina)...

Than I am sorry but You don´t know what France already was in possession of. Joliot Curie initiated the building of the worlds first cyclotron. This Paris cyclotron gave the germans in 1940 the prospect to analyse uranium and thorium preparates, including the theoretical analysys of plutonium if this would have been allowed. The germans agreed that both, french and german scientists may use the 7 MeV (later 12 MeV) installment for non-military research. It was the most powerful neutron source in german and german occupied terretory during ww2.
A cyclotron is essential in theories behind nuclear isotopes, the agglomeration of "artificial" isoptopes or elements (U-238 ). Had the germans used the Paris cyclotron in military capacity they would have agglomerated enough U-238 to build a bomb late in 44 or probably in 1942 enough U-238 to run a heavy water reactor and by 1944 to run a light water reactor.
The farsight with which the french undertook this project in 1939, the largest single nuclear technology related project in the world by then, is remarkable and deserves attention.

 

[Civettone]

I stand by my point that the V 2 project required as much resources as the Manhattan project. Therefor the Germans could have had a nuke.

And the V 2 was a huge project which still wasn't bombed into oblivion. Imagine that!

Kris

 

[syscom3]

I stand by my point that the V 2 project required as much resources as the Manhattan project. Therefor the Germans could have had a nuke.

And the V 2 was a huge project which still wasn't bombed into oblivion. Imagine that!

Kris

The V2 did not require a vast cadre of engineers, technicians and scientists researching a brand new science and inventing technologies on the go. The V2 was just pushing the art of existing technologies to make a usable rocket engine. Although it was groundbreaking, there was nothing unusual about that.

The V2 did not cost 132 billion dollars, even with slave labor factored in.

The V2 was a weapon that could be mass produced and the production and assembly facilities dispersed.

Now lets see some evidence of how the V2 project was larger than the manhattan project.

 

[Soren]

Syscom3,

you still fail to understand that it has nothing to do with the cost of the project. The German routinely built more advanced equipment than the Allies with less funding.

Delcyros,

I definitely do agree with you on some points, but on the bottom line I agree with Civettone.

 

[comiso90]

I stand by my point that the V 2 project required as much resources as the Manhattan project.

Relative to each nation's respective GNP and population or is that an unqualified statement?

.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Relative to each nation's respective GNP and population or is that an unqualified statement?

.

Naw it came from a consensus...

 

[Civettone]

Relative to each nation's respective GNP and population or is that an unqualified statement?

.

Perhaps in that case, the V 2 project was even bigger. I just know that both costed 2 billion US dollars.

The V2 did not require a vast cadre of engineers, technicians and scientists researching a brand new science and inventing technologies on the go. The V2 was just pushing the art of existing technologies to make a usable rocket engine. Although it was groundbreaking, there was nothing unusual about that.

Is that way it took the Americans years to get to the same level of the Germans, even with full cooperation by the engineers??

Maybe you can read this: New Vanguard 82: V-2 Ballistic Missile 1942-52
V-2 Ballistic Missile 1942 - 52 - Wal-Mart
It gives a good view on how large and groundbreaking the project was.
Kris

 

[syscom3]

We are talking about what the allies did, and thats research the physics behind building an atomic weapon, then organizing and building a vast industrial infrastructure to manufacture the weapon. The Germans didnt do that, did they?

And of course the B29 program was far larger than the V2 program, and it to pushed the state of the art for logn range bombers and production. And again, the Germans never had such an industrial program that was similar, did they?

Now when will you provide some evidence of the following:
1) US dollar equivalants for the total cost.
2) The absolutely new sciences and technologies that were created in the course of developing the V2.
3) Numbers of personell involved in the v2 program (excluding slave labor).

And sorry, post war research into rockets doesnt count in this thread.

 

[syscom3]

From wiki....

"The cost of the V-2 program was approximately US$2 billion in 1944 dollars (approximately US$21 billion in 2005 dollars); and 6048 were built, 3225 launched (US$620,000 each in 2005 dollars). In fact the program can be seen as the German "Manhattan Project", which cost US$2 billion in 1944 dollars (approximately US$20 billion in 2004 dollars). To put the German effort to mass produce the V-2 in perspective, its cost was at the time estimated to be about 1,000,000 Reichsmark per rocket. This was about the same as four Tiger Tanks or eight Panzer Pzkfw IV tanks. For the 6000 V-2s built, Germany could have built up to 48,000 tanks. However, such comparisons of the opportunity cost of deploying the V2 versus other weapons systems need to consider the realities that Nazi Germany faced and the psychology of the senior Nazi leadership. For example, by late 1944 Nazi Germany did not have the fuel or qualified manpower to field an additional 48,000 tanks. The production of the fuel for one V-2 required 30 tons of potatoes. Sometimes as Germany lacked enough explosives to put in the V-2, concrete was used"

So to put it in perspective, it was an effort similar in scope to the B29 program (push the state of existing technologies for a mass production weapon), although smaller and with no military gain to show for it.

The cost was similar to the Manhattan project, but totally dissimilar when comparing the technologies and sciences developed and military benefits gained.