i Bill,
That's a lot of data that I'd LOVE to have access to. Your data on the P-38 in the ETO wouldn't happen to include the type missions they were assigned, would it?
I have the data but not in spreadsheet. The P-38 in 8th AF was tasked first to long range escort through its entire 8th AF career.
As I've often stated in here, the scrutiny applied to a select few, like Boyington, has not been applied to everyone. Until it is, I'll take the victories awarded in the war and not the revisionist numbers. I simply use different numbers.
Actually, the scrutiny by the USAF research team Was objective. The objective wasn't the record per se, but the larger question of "what does the distribution of air to air victory credits look like, what factors separated the individuals from those that did not achieve victory credits, and then in many cases "why him?" down to level of brothers, order of birth, sports achievements, etc" - The first step however, was to get the data 'Right' and high scoring aces scores were reduced when duplicate records were found.
As to you using 'different numbers' it has to be somewhat vexing when multiple researched and published data that agree each other, have conflicts with your stuff?
The numbers I have for the P-38 do not include aircraft attached to individual units and I'd love to have those data.
Greg - Frank Olynyk has that data. I do also for the ETO/MTO because I have the data for the transitions and the Encounter Reports for the early cross over periods for each group for MTO and ETO. I'm working PTO but my fallback of researching encounter reports is sketchy - while MACRs are pretty complete. I have taken the time to literally enter each line of data for USAF 85, then start the cross check process to ensure that the individual data is correct, then add the type fighter used, and where possible add the type aircraft destroyed.
From Francis Dean's "America's Hundred Thousand," I do have the numbers for USAAF aircraft in the ETO. Those numbers show the P-38 flying 60.7% of the sorties the P-51 flew while suffering 69.7% of the P-41's combat losses and dropping 355% of the bombs the P-51 did. That figure alone makes me wonder VERY hard about the missions assigned to the P-38 versus the P-51, and it points me to the supposition that the P-51 was selected for the missions that afforded higher opportunities for air combat, while bomb-laden P-38's were assigned what can only be support bombing duties with MUCH less chance of encountering a defender in the air that is searching for high-altitude strategic bombers.
I haven't corresponded with Dean on the subject of 'actual' sorties and hours. The Eighth AF records are the best of all the major WWII combat units - and constitute a major block of records for all the P-38, P-47, P-51 and P-61 sorties flown. There is no repository of such data AFAIK. Some individual record keeping at the Group level has surfaced (i.e for the 355th FG) but not anywhere close to uniform in either location or format or completeness. Short answer is that I don't yet believe any of the historical summaries or references in published books on aircraft that discuss "X" number of sorties, or "Y" hours, or "Z" credits for bombs dropped, etc. Some histories have it, others are silent.
I will say this. If you (or Dean) or any researcher makes a claim on sorties, early returns, or hours Without the Unit Tower Log AND Daily Engineering Reports - it is simply a number extracted from a dark place. An example - Kent Miller has done a magnificent job, similar to Freeman, in his two volume set on 8th AF Fighter Command. Yet he has a lot of errors on the 355th that only I can dispute simply because I have 30 years or research, hard research to match MACRs, available engineering logs, accident reports, 3000 plus a/c photos.It is like an archeological expedition. Now multiply that by 15 permanent fighter groups plus Scout Forces,
Summary - sortie and hour rollups are impossible IMO.
Summary - I posed Capacity based on Operational Potential of the P-38 vs P-51 FG's as Constituted, Not as Actually Flown. The records of dispatched vs effective are reasonably complete in some FG's (56th, 4th and 355th come to mind) but in many there is usually a lazy Intelligence officer that captured just enough to produce a flash mission report for Group HQ. You (or Dean) would have to go to an individual and detailed block of data like a well kept and complete Tower Log - Not the IO Mission Summary.
I think my supposition here is confirmed that the P-38's were supporting Army units. They would never replace strategic bombers and that leaves only ground support as the major mission.
Your supposition for even 9th AF, much less 8th would be wrong. The 8th and 9th both reported to Spaatz in December 1943. Spaatz placed 9th AF FC dotted line to 8th AF to augment bomber escort. All the P-47s, P-51s and P-38s performed Penetration, Withdrawal and Target Support escort roles through the end of May, 19444. The 9th then regained operational control to support the Tactical mission for the Invasion of France and beyond.
Simply there weren't enough long range escort fighters to support the 8th AF mission until fall of 1944 and some of the big LW days occurred in May, June, July when escort fighter coverage was too skimpy to cover all of the bombers to all of the targets.
So my opinion is they got what they assigned the two planes to do and both did OK. We don't KNOW how they would have dome if the missions were switched … they weren't switched, at least in the ETO.
Greg - more research, less speculation, is in order. Get the 20, 55, 364, 479FG histories and look at the tasked missions, get Kent Millers two volume set. Get the Mighty Eighth War Diary. Pull out The Mighty Eighth and re-read it.
The P-38 seems to have dome pretty well at what it was assigned and I see no evidence that would suggest to me that if the missions were swapped, we would have failed and lost the war.
Nobody claims that we would have 'lost the war' if the Mustang had not eventually replaced the P-38. What you can conclude is that a.) there would have been too few P-38 Groups to adequately prevent huge losses for the 8th AF EVEN if Doolittle had not tossed them in favor of the P-51, and b.) there would have been a very much stronger TO&E for LuftFlotte Reich when D-Day rolled around
To come to that conclusion, I'd want to see statistics for similar missions flown against similar defenders. I KNOW the P-51 was afforded missions with much higher probability of seeing enemy aircraft. Bombers draw enemy fighters and escorts will engage them. P-51's were primary escorts. Pretty easy there. Perhaps the planners did that on purpose because they though as you do. Could be.
No. There were more or as many operational P-38 FG's performing deep penetration bomber escort as P-51s from October, 1943 through February, 1944 and only one fewer through April, 1944, and as many through May, 1944 when all the 9th AF P-38 groups were performing escort.
The operational achievements for ALL the P-38s assigned to ALL 8th AF bomber missions through May 1944 was dismal with respect to engagements and victories against the LW when compared to a.) the shorter range P-47 and b.) the slightly longer range P-51. Remember the P-38 did perform primary target escort to Berlin as early as 3 March 1944, before the Mustang by one day. While some targets were beyond the P-38 range, they were Few.
The P-38 showed what it could do in the PTO and MTO and, if employed correctly, would have done just fine in my opinion in the ETO. It's not intended to try to convince you, Graugeist, or anyone else, it's MY opinion. The only data I have that shows late model P-38 employed in escort mission was in the PTO and MTO, so that's what I use for comparison.
But, by all means, if you have the data in the ETO about mission types, please post it. I have never seen it and would like to. I don't disbelieve you, but would like to have the sources!
See the above - all are publically available to those interested in digging out the facts. I would recommend Miller's two volume set as well as Freeman's War Diary
The P-38 in the ETO came in third in the ETO against all other USAAF types and that says it wasn't too bad. You guys can hate it and disrespect it all you want. It wasn't that bad in the final tally.
Greg - I Certainly do not hate the P-38, nor do I hold it in contempt or disrespect it. I do have an objective point of view relative to what I think - and vocalize what I say. Food for thought - look at the record of the 332nd FG in the MTO. Last to get Mustangs, did not come close to the records of other MTO Mustang FG's during the same period - but they outscored each of the remaining P-38 FG's (1st, 14th and 82nd) during that period. Those three P-38 FG's would have scored ahead of all 8th AF FG's except the 56/4 (82nd) and 352 (1st and 14th) but couldn't beat the low scoring 332nd from June, 1944 to EOW
I don't doubt your data. I might embrace it if had the sources. Cheers.